2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer Tips - 4 big priced selections for the opening goal
This preview analyses the key contenders for the first goal scorer in the 2026 AFL Grand Final between Fremantle and Brisbane. Form, head-to-head records, and recent trends suggest that Oscar Allen (Brisbane), Patrick Voss (Fremantle), Conor McKenna (Brisbane), and Hayden Young (Fremantle) are the most promising selections, offering both strong recent performances and attractive odds. Historical data also shows that midfielders and less likely forwards can surprise, pointing to the value in exploring outside picks. A 10-unit staking plan is recommended, led by Oscar Allen.
- Oscar Allen, Patrick Voss, Conor McKenna & Hayden Young are leading first goal scorer picks.
- Historical trends show value in midfielders and forwards outside the main favorites.
- Recommended staking plan: Allen (4u), Voss (3u), McKenna (2u), Young (1u).
2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer Stats & Predictions
The first goalscorer in the AFL Grand Final betting markets offer excellent value and an opportunity to get the game underway in the best possible way.
Trends from the season, the run to the Grand Finals, head to heads between Fremantle Dockers and Brisbane Lions and history in the premiership decider points us towards the value on offer.
Brisbane's Logan Morris and Fremantle's Jye Amiss head into the decider as the two leading goalkickers, while Josh Treacy, Charlie Cameron and Kai Lohmann have also enjoyed prolific seasons. But who will kick the first major at the MCG on Saturday?
You can also read our AFL Grand Final betting tips and verdict.
Fremantle & Brisbane 2026 Leading Goalscorers
Fremantle Dockers
- Jye Amiss - 62 goals
- Josh Treacy - 56 goals
- Patrick Voss - 46 goals
- Isaiah Dudley - 32 goals
- Luke Jackson - 29 goals
Voss shapes as an interesting first goal scorer option. The Dockers forward has kicked 46 goals this season and booted four in the only meeting between these sides earlier in the year. At $12, he is one of our selections.
Luke Jackson and Shai Bolton have also made their presence felt early in September, kicking the opening goals in Fremantle's first two finals.
Brisbane Lions
- Logan Morris - 69 goals
- Charlie Cameron - 58 goals
- Kai Lohmann - 53 goals
- Zac Bailey - 34 goals
- Cam Rayner - 27 goals
- Conor McKenna - 24 goals
- Oscar Allen - 23 goals
Conor McKenna is an intriguing outsider, having booted 24 goals from 20 appearances. That is an average of 1.2 per game and gives him some appeal at $23.
Oscar Allen has also been productive in limited opportunities, kicking 23 goals from 14 appearances at an average of 1.64 per game. He is our leading selection at $16.
Fremantle vs Brisbane Head to Head
The two sides have met just once this season, with Fremantle recording a 25-point win at the Gabba on May 30. The Dockers' three key forwards did the damage, with Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss booting four goals apiece, while Josh Treacy chipped in with three.
Looking at the past three meetings, Amiss and Treacy have each kicked eight goals against Brisbane. Voss was particularly dangerous in the most recent clash, while Charlie Cameron has been Brisbane's standout with five goals in his past two against Fremantle.
Isaiah Dudley kicked the opening goal in the only meeting between these sides in 2026, giving Fremantle an early advantage at the Gabba.
Recent Head-to-Head Goalscorers:
- Josh Treacy - 8 goals in last 3 meetings
- Jye Amiss - 8 goals in last 3 meetings
- Charlie Cameron - 5 goals in last 2 meetings
- Zac Bailey - 5 goals in last 3 meetings
- Patrick Voss - 4 goals in last meeting
First Goalscorers in the 2026 Finals
Fremantle have made a habit of getting on the scoreboard first this September, kicking the opening goal in all three of their finals.
Luke Jackson got things underway in the Qualifying Final against Hawthorn, while Shai Bolton struck inside the opening minute of the Semi-Final against Geelong.
Neil Erasmus was the unlikely player to get things started in the Preliminary Final against Sydney, making it three different opening goalscorers in as many finals.
Brisbane have kicked the opening goal in just one of their three finals this season, with Kai Lohmann striking after only 30 seconds in the Semi-Final against Adelaide.
Eric Hipwood kicked the Lions' first goal in the Qualifying Final against Sydney, but it was the third goal of the match after the Swans had made the early running.
Charlie Cameron was Brisbane's first goalscorer in the Preliminary Final against Hawthorn, finding the scoreboard at the three-minute mark after Nick Watson had kicked the opener for the Hawks.
2026 AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer Best Bets
Oscar Allen is our leading selection at $16. The Brisbane forward has booted 23 goals from 14 appearances this season and has the ability to make an immediate impact inside attacking 50.
With plenty of attention likely to go towards Logan Morris, Charlie Cameron and Kai Lohmann, Allen could find himself with an opportunity early. He is a strong contested mark and a reliable set-shot option, making him an appealing choice if Brisbane can generate the first clean entry.
Patrick Voss has enjoyed an excellent season, booting 46 goals from 25 games, and his recent record against Brisbane makes him an obvious contender.
The Dockers forward kicked four goals in the most recent meeting at the Gabba and will again be an important target alongside Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy.
At $12, Voss offers a solid alternative to the more prominent names in the market.
Conor McKenna shapes as value at $23. The Irishman has kicked 24 goals in 20 appearances this season, averaging 1.2 per game.
He is capable of providing an attacking option outside Brisbane's established forward targets and doesn't need a huge number of opportunities to hit the scoreboard. At the price, he is worth including as a speculative selection.
Hayden Young shapes as an interesting outsider at $34. Fremantle's opening goals in their three finals have come from Luke Jackson, Shai Bolton and Neil Erasmus, highlighting the variety of players capable of getting them off to a fast start.
Young has the ability to push forward from the midfield and can convert from distance. If Fremantle win the early territory battle, he could find himself in a position to capitalise.
Verdict
Our four selections for the opening goal:
Oscar Allen
First Goalscorer
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Patrick Voss
First Goalscorer
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Conor McKenna
First Goalscorer
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Hayden Young
First Goalscorer
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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