Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Grand Final Tips – Lions to secure the three-peat
Brisbane Lions are tipped to make history with a Grand Final win over Fremantle Dockers, securing a three-peat thanks to their deep experience and formidable attack. While Fremantle’s clearance work has impressed in recent finals, the Lions’ forward line depth and high-pressure game are likely to overwhelm the Dockers. Expect a high-scoring affair, with the likes of Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey set to play key roles. The Dockers must start strongly, but Brisbane’s firepower and finals pedigree should prove decisive.
- Brisbane Lions predicted for a third consecutive premiership win.
- Fremantle's clearance work strong but Lions' attack likely overwhelming.
- Expect a high-scoring game with Bailey and Cameron as key threats.
Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Grand Final Preview
- Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Grand Final Preview
- Head to Head
- Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis
- Fremantle Dockers Team News
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane will chalk up the three-peat with a memorable Grand Final win over Fremantle.
The Lions have too much firepower, plenty of proven performers and the experience to handle the biggest stage, while the Dockers will need everything to go right to claim their maiden premiership.
The Dockers cannot afford to be slow out of the blocks. Expect Brisbane to bring enormous pressure early in the Grand Final, forcing Fremantle into rushed decisions coming out of defence and capitalising on turnovers. The Lions will look to get the ball moving quickly before the Dockers can set up behind it, rather than allow them to control territory and dictate the tempo.
Fremantle should have their moments around the contest, but Brisbane have the midfield depth to match them. Will Ashcroft, Josh Dunkley and Hugh McCluggage can shoulder the load if Lachie Neale is unsuccessful in his bid to overturn his suspension, while Zac Bailey shapes as a major player on the outside.
The biggest problem for Fremantle will be containing Brisbane's forward line. Harris Andrews and the Lions' defence should make life difficult for Josh Treacy and Jye Amiss at one end, while Oscar Allen, Eric Hipwood and Logan Morris will stretch the Dockers at the other. Throw in Kai Lohmann and Charlie Cameron at ground level, and Brisbane have too many avenues to goal for Fremantle to shut them all down.
Cameron looks particularly dangerous. The livewire has kicked two or more goals in nine of his past 10 matches against Fremantle and should get plenty of opportunities if Brisbane can generate quick entries and isolate him inside 50. Expect the Dockers to put plenty of work into him, but that should only create more opportunities for Brisbane's other forwards.
The Dockers have enough attacking weapons to contribute to a high-scoring contest, particularly if they are forced to take the game on. Brisbane's three finals have produced an average of 239 combined points, and another open, attacking game should see the total clear 189.5. Expect Fremantle to challenge, but the Lions' greater firepower and experience should prove decisive.
- Brisbane have won five of their past six finals at the MCG, Fremantle are 1-3 at the venue in finals.
- The total points in Brisbane’s three finals matches in 2026 has averaged 239.
- Charlie Cameron has kicked 2+ goals in nine of his past 10 matches against Fremantle.
- Zac Bailey has had 28+ disposals in his past two matches against the Dockers
Head to Head
Fremantle were 25-point winners when the two sides met at the Gabba back in Round 12. In 2025, Brisbane took out the Round 23 meeting at Optus Stadium by 57 points, while Fremantle claimed the Round 2 match in 2024 by 23 points. The two sides have never met in finals.
Standout player performances in the recent head-to-heads have come from:
- Josh Treacy (Fremantle) – Has kicked eight goals across his past three matches against Brisbane.
- Jye Amiss (Fremantle) – Booted four goals in the most recent meeting and eight across his past three against the Lions.
- Patrick Voss (Fremantle) – Kicked four goals in the most recent meeting.
- Caleb Serong (Fremantle) – Has averaged 33 disposals across his past six matches against Brisbane.
- Charlie Cameron (Brisbane) – Has kicked 24 goals in his past 10 matches against Fremantle, with two or more in nine of those games.
- Zac Bailey (Brisbane) – Has collected at least 28 disposals in each of his past two matches against Fremantle.
- Dayne Zorko (Brisbane) – Recorded 27 disposals in his most recent match against the Dockers.
Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis
Fremantle have taken the long route to their second Grand Final, recovering from a 32-point Qualifying Final loss to Hawthorn with victories over Geelong by 14 points and Sydney by 12. The minor premiers managed just five goals and 40 points against the Hawks before responding with 120 against the Cats and 83 against the Swans. They have averaged 81 points across their three finals while conceding 83, with their attacking efficiency improving considerably since the opening week.
The Dockers' clearance dominance has been a major factor in their turnaround, winning the count 44–31 against Geelong and 44–30 against Sydney. They generated 67 inside 50s against the Swans, including 23 in the final quarter, and their ability to win the ball at stoppages has helped them control territory. Andrew Brayshaw leads Fremantle's finals disposal count in the finals with 83 at an average of 27.7, narrowly ahead of Jordan Clark with 82, while Caleb Serong has accumulated 71.
Luke Jackson has been outstanding throughout September, averaging 20.7 disposals and kicking five goals, including two against Geelong alongside 25 disposals and 35 hitouts. He shares the club's finals goalkicking lead with Patrick Voss, while Shai Bolton, Jye Amiss and Isaiah Dudley have kicked four apiece. The concern is Josh Treacy, who has managed just two goals across three finals, with Fremantle's three key forwards combining for only two against Sydney. The Dockers have won four of their past seven matches at the MCG but are 1–3 in finals at the venue, including their 2013 Grand Final defeat to Hawthorn.
Fremantle Dockers Team News
Fremantle reported no fresh injuries from their Preliminary Final victory. Hayden Young continues to build his fitness after an interrupted season, with his game time managed at around 70–75 per cent. The Dockers are expected to field a relatively settled side.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane are through to their fourth consecutive Grand Final after recovering from a 53-point Qualifying Final defeat against Sydney with victories over Adelaide by 53 points and Hawthorn by nine. The Lions have scored 88, 144 and 131 points across their three finals, averaging 121 points per game, while conceding 118. Their attacking power has been particularly evident over the past fortnight, booting 41 goals against Adelaide and Hawthorn.
The Lions have not dominated every midfield battle, losing the clearance count 41–40 against Hawthorn and 45–35 against Sydney. Their Preliminary Final was also relatively even in contested possessions, with Brisbane winning that count 115–108. Against Adelaide, Brisbane's pressure and contested-ball work helped generate a blistering start, kicking five goals in the opening seven minutes and 13 seconds before finishing with 144 points.
Will Ashcroft leads Brisbane's finals disposal count with 79 at an average of 26.3, followed by Dayne Zorko with 74. Josh Dunkley and Lachie Neale have collected 65 apiece, while Zac Bailey has accumulated 62. Charlie Cameron leads the September goalkicking with eight, followed by Kai Lohmann and Eric Hipwood with seven each. Logan Morris has kicked two goals in every final, while Hugh McCluggage has booted five across the past fortnight.
Brisbane have won nine of their past 11 matches at the MCG, including five of their past six finals at the venue. They are chasing a third consecutive premiership after defeating Sydney in 2024 and Geelong in 2025.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Lachie Neale's one-match suspension for striking Hawthorn's Jack Ginnivan puts his Grand Final availability in doubt, pending any appeal. Brisbane reported no fresh injuries from the Preliminary Final, while defender Noah Answerth is pushing for a return after narrowly missing selection against Hawthorn.
Verdict
Brisbane to win with the total points going over. Bailey and Cameron dangerous at ground level
Brisbane Lions
Win
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Over 189.5
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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