Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions AFL Grand Final Tips - Lions to secure the three-peat
The AFL Grand Final pits Fremantle Dockers against the dominant Brisbane Lions. Brisbane is tipped to secure a third consecutive premiership due to their high-scoring offense and greater finals experience, having averaged 121 points per game in the finals. While Fremantle have shown improved form and clearance work, their forwards have struggled to convert in big games. Key tips include a Brisbane win, total points over 189.5, Charlie Cameron to score 2+ goals, and Zac Bailey to have 22+ disposals. Expect an attacking, high-scoring contest.
- Brisbane Lions predicted for a third consecutive premiership win.
- Fremantle's clearance work strong but Lions' attack likely overwhelming.
- Expect a high-scoring game with Bailey and Cameron as key threats.
Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Grand Final Preview
- Fremantle Dockers vs Brisbane Lions Grand Final Preview
- Head to Head
- Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis
- Fremantle Dockers Team News
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane will chalk up the three-peat with a memorable Grand Final win over Fremantle. The Lions have too much firepower, proven performers and the experience to handle the biggest stage, while the Dockers will need everything to go right to claim their maiden premiership.
Brisbane's three finals have produced an average of 239 combined points, and another open, attacking game should see the total clear 189.5. Expect Fremantle to challenge, but the Lions' greater firepower and experience should prove decisive.
You can also read our first goalscorer predictions and Norm Smith Medal selections.
- Brisbane have won five of their past six finals at the MCG, Fremantle are 1-3 at the venue in finals.
- The total points in Brisbane’s three finals matches in 2026 has averaged 239.
- Charlie Cameron has kicked 2+ goals in nine of his past 10 matches against Fremantle.
- Zac Bailey has had 28+ disposals in his past two matches against the Dockers
Head to Head
Fremantle were 25-point winners when the two sides met at the Gabba back in Round 12. In 2025, Brisbane took out the Round 23 meeting at Optus Stadium by 57 points, while Fremantle claimed the Round 2 match in 2024 by 23 points. The two sides have never met in finals.
Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis
Fremantle have taken the long route to their second Grand Final, recovering from a 32-point Qualifying Final loss to Hawthorn with victories over Geelong by 14 points and Sydney by 12.
The minor premiers managed just five goals and 40 points against the Hawks before responding with 120 against the Cats and 83 against the Swans.
They have averaged 81 points across their three finals while conceding 83, with their attacking efficiency improving considerably since the opening week.
The Dockers' clearance dominance has been a major factor in their turnaround, winning the count 44-31 against Geelong and 44-30 against Sydney.
Luke Jackson has been outstanding throughout September, averaging 20.7 disposals and kicking five goals, including two against Geelong alongside 25 disposals and 35 hitouts.
He shares the club's finals goalkicking lead with Patrick Voss, while Shai Bolton, Jye Amiss and Isaiah Dudley have kicked four apiece.
The concern is Josh Treacy, who has managed just two goals across three finals, with Fremantle's three key forwards combining for only two against Sydney.
The Dockers have won four of their past seven matches at the MCG but are 1-3 in finals at the venue, including their 2013 Grand Final defeat to Hawthorn.
Fremantle Dockers Team News
Fremantle reported no fresh injuries from their Preliminary Final victory. Hayden Young continues to build his fitness after an interrupted season, with his game time managed at around 70-75 per cent. The Dockers are expected to field a relatively settled side.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane are through to their fourth consecutive Grand Final after recovering from a 53-point Qualifying Final defeat against Sydney with victories over Adelaide by 53 points and Hawthorn by nine.
The Lions have scored 88, 144 and 131 points across their three finals, averaging 121 points per game, while conceding 118.
Their attacking power has been particularly evident over the past fortnight, booting 41 goals against Adelaide and Hawthorn.
Will Ashcroft leads Brisbane's finals disposal count with 79 at an average of 26.3, followed by Dayne Zorko with 74. Josh Dunkley and Lachie Neale have collected 65 apiece, while Zac Bailey has accumulated 62.
Charlie Cameron leads the September goalkicking with eight, followed by Kai Lohmann and Eric Hipwood with seven each. Logan Morris has kicked two goals in every final, while Hugh McCluggage has booted five across the past fortnight.
Brisbane have won nine of their past 11 matches at the MCG, including five of their past six finals at the venue. They are chasing a third consecutive premiership after defeating Sydney in 2024 and Geelong in 2025.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Lachie Neale's one-match suspension for striking Hawthorn's Jack Ginnivan was downgraded and he is free to play in the Grand Final. Brisbane reported no fresh injuries from the Preliminary Final, while defender Noah Answerth is pushing for a return after narrowly missing selection against Hawthorn.
Verdict
Brisbane to win with the total points going over. Bailey and Cameron dangerous at ground level.
Brisbane Lions
Win
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Over 189.5
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Charlie Cameron
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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