2026 Norm Smith Medal Tips for Best on Ground in the AFL Grand Final
The 2026 AFL Grand Final sees the Fremantle Dockers face off against the Brisbane Lions, with midfielders tipped to shine in the Norm Smith Medal race. Leading contenders include Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle), lauded for his consistency and finals impact; Dayne Zorko (Brisbane), whose defensive playmaking could be crucial; and value picks like Harris Andrews and Jye Amiss. The article highlights how both teams’ midfield dominance and key individual performances will likely determine the Norm Smith Medal recipient, recommending Brayshaw and Zorko as the top bets.
- Andrew Brayshaw and Dayne Zorko are top Norm Smith Medal contenders.
- Value bets include Harris Andrews (Brisbane) and Jye Amiss (Fremantle).
- Midfield and defensive dominance are set to decide the award in the Grand Final.
2026 AFL Grand Final Norm Smith Medal Verdict
The Norm Smith Medal is awarded to the best on ground in the AFL Grand Final and is one of the best value betting markets on the premiership decider.
Midfielders have traditionally featured prominently in the voting and that could well be the case against as Fremantle Dockers and Brisbane Lions lock horns at the MCG on September 26, 2026.
As well as our AFL Grand Final best bets and First Goalscorer selections, we've also picked out four likely candidates to be awarded the Norm Smith Medal post-game.
The Lions have several genuine Norm Smith contenders, with Will Ashcroft leading the market ahead of Zac Bailey, Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko and Josh Dunkley.
Luke Jackson is Fremantle's shortest-priced option after an outstanding finals campaign, followed by Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Shai Bolton.
2026 Norm Smith Medal Best Bets
Andrew Brayshaw
Andrew Brayshaw shapes as a major contender for the Norm Smith Medal at $15, with the Fremantle midfielder building an impressive finals campaign and playing a key role in the Dockers' remarkable Preliminary Final comeback against Sydney.
The 26-year-old finished with a team-high 29 disposals against the Swans and was particularly influential when the game was on the line. Fremantle trailed by 21 points at the final change before completely dominating the last quarter, with Brayshaw and Caleb Serong taking control around the contest as the Dockers won the clearances 12-5 and generated 23 inside 50s to Sydney's six.
Coach Justin Longmuir highlighted the influence of his midfielders after the match, with Brayshaw among those who lifted when Fremantle needed to turn the game around.
Brayshaw has been one of Fremantle's most consistent performers for several seasons, combining his ability to win the football with elite defensive pressure and an enormous work rate. He doesn't rely on hitting the scoreboard to influence games, and his capacity to accumulate possessions while restricting opposition midfielders makes him particularly important against Brisbane.
The Lions boast a formidable midfield featuring Will Ashcroft, Hugh McCluggage, Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley, but Brayshaw has the ability to match them around the contest and provide Fremantle with the first use of the football.
Luke Jackson has attracted plenty of attention following his outstanding finals performances, while Serong is also prominent in the market. However, Brayshaw's consistency and ability to influence the game across all four quarters provide a compelling case for the $15 quote.
If Fremantle can reproduce the midfield dominance that carried them into the Grand Final, Brayshaw will have plenty of opportunities to make his presence felt.
Jye Amiss
Jye Amiss is an interesting long-priced option for the Norm Smith Medal at $67, with the Fremantle forward boasting an impressive recent record against Brisbane and the ability to produce a match-winning bag of goals.
The 23-year-old was one of the key figures when the Dockers defeated Brisbane in Round 12 earlier this season, receiving nine coaches' votes alongside fellow forward Josh Treacy. Matthew Johnson collected five votes and Patrick Voss three, highlighting just how influential Fremantle's attacking combination was in that encounter.
Amiss and Treacy have each kicked eight goals across their past three meetings with the Lions, while Voss booted four in the most recent clash. Brisbane's defence will have its hands full trying to contain all three, particularly if Fremantle can generate the same volume of forward entries that overwhelmed Sydney in the Preliminary Final.
The Dockers had 67 inside 50s against the Swans but struggled to capitalise for much of the contest. Their three key forwards managed just two goals between them, with Amiss kicking one, leaving plenty of room for improvement heading into the decider.
Harris Andrews looms as the biggest obstacle, although the Lions defender cannot cover all three marking targets. If Andrews is occupied by Treacy, Amiss could get opportunities against Brisbane's other defenders, particularly when Fremantle move the ball quickly out of the middle.
The Norm Smith Medal is generally associated with midfield dominance, but Bobby Hill demonstrated in 2023 that a forward can claim the honour with a decisive scoreboard contribution. The Collingwood small forward kicked four goals against Brisbane and received the maximum 15 votes.
Amiss has the capacity to produce a similar scoreboard impact, particularly if Fremantle's midfield can get on top and provide him with regular opportunities inside 50.
At $67, the Dockers forward is one of the longer-priced players in the market, but a four or five-goal performance in a Fremantle premiership would put him firmly in the Norm Smith conversation.
Dayne Zorko
Dayne Zorko shapes as an interesting contender for the Norm Smith Medal at $15, with the Brisbane veteran's ability to generate attacking play from defence likely to be crucial against Fremantle.
The 37-year-old remains one of the Lions' most influential ball users, providing drive from the back half and helping Brisbane transition the football into attack. His ability to find space, accumulate possessions and deliver the ball effectively gives him the opportunity to produce a high-impact performance on Grand Final day.
Fremantle's Preliminary Final win over Sydney demonstrated just how much pressure the Dockers can generate through repeat forward entries. They finished with 67 inside 50s and completely dominated the final quarter, creating 23 entries to six as they overturned a 21-point deficit.
If Fremantle can produce similar numbers on Saturday, Brisbane's defenders will have plenty of work to do, and Zorko's ability to find a way through the Dockers' defensive structure could become a major factor.
The Lions veteran was influential in Brisbane's Semi-Final win over Adelaide, with his experience and ability to generate attacking movement from defence helping the Lions establish a commanding early advantage.
Brisbane will need to be particularly effective with their ball movement against Fremantle, who have several midfielders capable of applying pressure and forcing turnovers. Zorko's precise kicking and ability to launch attacks from the back half could prove vital in breaking through that pressure.
With so much attention on Will Ashcroft, Hugh McCluggage and Lachie Neale, Zorko offers a different avenue to the medal. A performance featuring 30-plus disposals, significant metres gained and several important attacking chains would give him a strong case if the Lions secure another premiership.
Harris Andrews
Harris Andrews shapes as one of the more interesting options further down the Norm Smith Medal market at $34, with the Brisbane defender set to play a crucial role against Fremantle's powerful forward line.
The Dockers boast three dangerous key forwards in Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss, who have combined for more than 160 goals this season. All three have the ability to influence the scoreboard, with Treacy and Amiss particularly effective against Brisbane in recent meetings.
Andrews will be central to the Lions' plans to restrict that combination. The All-Australian defender is one of the competition's leading intercept players, with his ability to read the flight of the ball, take contested marks and organise Brisbane's defensive structure making him an important figure.
He demonstrated that influence in the Preliminary Final against Hawthorn, particularly after half-time as Brisbane tightened up defensively and began to control the aerial contest. Andrews was among the Lions' best players in the nine-point victory and played an important role in helping Brisbane withstand Hawthorn's late charge.
The match-up against Fremantle is particularly intriguing. Treacy and Amiss have each kicked eight goals across their past three meetings with Brisbane, while Voss booted four in Round 12 this season.
Andrews may be required to spend considerable time on one of those forwards, but his greatest influence could come when he is able to leave his direct opponent and intercept Fremantle's attacking entries.
The Dockers generated 67 inside 50s against Sydney in the Preliminary Final, and a similar performance would provide Andrews with plenty of opportunities to influence the contest.
Defenders are often overlooked in Norm Smith betting markets, but Andrews has the capacity to produce the type of commanding performance that attracts the attention of the voting panel.
If Brisbane can restrict Fremantle's dangerous forward line and Andrews dominates the aerial contest with a series of important intercept marks, the $34 quote offers an interesting alternative to the Lions' shorter-priced midfield stars.
Verdict
Andrew Brayshaw and Dayne Zorko are strong contenders for either side for the 2026 Norm Smith Medal, while Harris Andrews and Jye Amiss represent value.
Andrew Brayshaw
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Dayne Zorko
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Harris Andrews
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Jye Amiss
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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