AFL Grand Final Tips - Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions to go down to the wire
The 2025 AFL Grand Final sees the red-hot Geelong Cats take on defending champions Brisbane Lions. While the Lions enter as underdogs after a Qualifying Final defeat to Geelong, their big-game finals experience and comeback form set up a thrilling contest. Geelong look formidable with star performances from Dangerfield, Smith, and Cameron, though Tom Stewart's absence could be crucial. Brisbane’s disposal dominance and pressure inside 50 remain key weapons. Prediction: A close, high-scoring clash—take Brisbane with the points, Dunkley for disposals, and Dangerfield to star again.
- Geelong faces Brisbane in the 2025 AFL Grand Final
- Lions are underdogs but are the defending champs
- Geelong strong in form but missing Stewart
Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL Grand Final Preview
It is a clash of the heavyweights in the 2025 AFL Grand Final and the Brisbane Lions can push Geelong to the brink.
The Lions head in as underdogs after their 38-point loss to Geelong in the Qualifying Final but are the defending champions and will be out for redemption.
Since the loss to the Cats, Brisbane have rebounded with wins over Gold Coast and Collingwood to book their date in the decider for the third time in as many years.
Meanwhile, Geelong cruised past Hawthorn by 30 points in the Preliminary Final, with Patrick Dangerfield turning back the clock in a two-goal, 32-disposal masterclass.
The storylines are endless. Dangerfield is playing like a man possessed and could cap his legacy with another medal, this time as Captain, while Max Holmes, cruelly sidelined in 2022, has emerged as a key finals contributor.
The tactical battle sets up a fascinating contrast. Brisbane will look to dominate the disposal game and control the play before pulling the trigger with fast and risky ball movement in a bid to bypass Geelong’s intercepting defenders and get one-on-ones inside 50. Their pressure inside forward half has been a trademark, and they'll aim to trap the Cats in with repeat entries.
Geelong, on the other hand, will also look to bring some high-octane footy with fast movement and relentless pressure by bringing forward-half retention, bringing their skilful mix of finishes into the game.
Hard to split these two with so much talent on both sides and the key will come down to who can handle momentum swings and strike hardest with accurate finishing off when the game opens up.
Take the Lions with the 12.5 point start in a game that will hit the total points over. Brisbane’s Josh Dunkley has snuck under the radar in betting markets for total disposals- take him for the 25+. Patrick Dangerfield can back up his unbelievable form from last weekend with two goals and might be the difference between the two sides.
- Brisbane have won three of the past four matches between the two sides
- Both sides have kicked 100+ points in their two most recent finals
- Josh Dunkley has had 25+ disposals in his past six matches against Geelong
- Patrick Dangerfield booted three goals last weekend
Head to Head
Brisbane and Geelong met twice during the home and away season with Brisbane getting the upper hand at the GABBA in Round 3 by nine points before scoring by 38 in Round 15 at GMHBA Stadium over an inaccurate Cats side. Geelong turned the tables with a 38-point Qualifying Final win.
Geelong’s fast and relentless ball movement was on display that night, while Brisbane’s key players, including Hugh McCluggage, were kept out of the game. Ollie Dempsey was Geelong’s best with three goals and 25 disposals.
Brisbane have won three of the past four between the two sides, including last year’s epic Preliminary Final by 10 points but the Cats have won two of the past three at the MCG, including the 2022 Preliminary Final.
For Brisbane, Josh Dunkley has had 25+ disposals in his past six matches against Geelong, while Dayne Zorko has had 30+ in three of his past four, while Will Ashcroft has had 30+ in two of his past three. Cam Rayner has kicked three goals in his past two matches against Geelong.
Jeremy Cameron has kicked nine goals from his past four matches against the Lions. Bailey Smith and Max Holmes have averaged 25 disposals from their past three.
Geelong Cats Form
Geelong have won 14 of their past 16 matches and weren’t really tested in the last few rounds of the home and away season against inferior opposition before their blitz against Brisbane in the Qualifying Final and their solid win over Hawthorn last weekend.
The win over the Hawks made it six from seven at the MCG this season while they are 7-4 against top eight sides in 2025.
The Cats have kicked over 100 points in their past eight matches and banged on 17.13.115 against Hawthorn with Tyson Stengle, Patrick Dangerfield and Jeremy Cameron all kicking three each. Cameron has 88 goals for the season.
Dangerfield also had 31 disposals against Hawthorn in what was one of the great individual finals matches. Bailey Smith collected 36 disposals and has had 30+ in 12 of his past 16. Max Holmes had 25 against the Hawks and has had 25 or more in six of his past seven.
Geelong Cats Team News
Devastation for Tom Stewart with the intercepting defender ruled out under concussion protocols. Jack Henry rolled his ankle in the win over Hawthorn but is expected to be okay.
Rhys Stanley is expected to be available to return from a hamstring. Jed Bews and Ollie Henry were emergencies alongside Stanley last week and will be considered.
Geelong Cats Team List
B: C.O’Sullivan, S.De Koning, J.Henry
HB: M.O’Connor, Z.Guthrie, L.Humphries
C: G.Miers, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey
HF: B.Close, S.Mannagh, T.Stengle
F: S.Neale, J.Cameron, P.Dangerfield (c)
FOLL: R.Stanley, B.Smith, T.Atkins
I/C: J.Bowes, O.Mullin, M.Blicavs, J.Martin, J.Clark
EMG: M.Knevitt, J.Bews, O.Henry
IN – R.Stanley
OUT – T.Stewart (concussion)
Brisbane Lions Form
Brisbane headed into the finals series on the back of winning seven of nine matches with the last two of those coming against top eight sides, Fremantle and Hawthorn. Over the course of the season, they have a 9-5 record against sides in the top eight, including their Semi Final win over Gold Coast and their Preliminary Final victory over the Magpies.
Brisbane rank in the top three in the competition for disposals, clearances and inside 50s. They led the disposals count against Geelong and Gold Coast and turned their -13 inside/50 differential from the Cats match-up to a +11 against the Suns.
Finishing off has been a slight issue this season, with the Lions ranking 13th for goals per inside 50 and kicked 14.16 against the Suns before improving to 15.10 against the Magpies.
Ty Gallop stood up with three goals last weekend, while Cam Rayner, Will Ashcroft and Zac Bailey each kicked two. Rayner has 2+ in six of his past eight. Kai Lohmann has kicked 2+ in four of his past five matches, while Logan Morris has 18 from his past seven
Hugh McCluggage has bounced back from a quiet match against Geelong with 70 disposals in the past two weeks. Dayne Zorko had 28 disposals against Collingwood and has hit that mark in five of his past six, while Will Aschroft has hit that mark in eight of his past 10.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Plenty going on for Brisbane with selection during the week and the call needs to be made on Lachie Neale, who is facing a race against time to return from a calf injury that was sustained just three weeks ago in the Qualifying Final.
Jarrod Berry dislocated his shoulder last week and is likely to be unavailable. Sam Day, James Tunstill and Darragh Joyce are knocking on the door and are in the frame if both Neale and Berry are unavailable.
Brisbane Lions Team List
B: D.Zorko, D.Gardiner, R.Lester
HB: D.Wilmot, H.Andrews (c), B.Starcevich
C: H.McCluggage, L.Neale, L.Ashcroft
HF: C.Cameron, T.Gallop, Z.Bailey
F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee
FOLL: D.Fort, J.Dunkley, W.Ashcroft
I/C: K.Lohmann, J.Fletcher, S.Marshall, B.Reville, O.McInerney
EMG: S.Day, J.Tunstill, D.Joyce
IN – L.Neale
OUT – J.Berry (shoulder)
Verdict
Brisbane to push Geelong in bid to go back-to-back. Dunkley solid for Lions, Dangerfield could be the difference for the Cats.
Brisbane Lions +12.5
Handicap -12.5
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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