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AFL Norm Smith Medal Tips- Who takes out the Norm Smith Medal on AFL Grand Final day?

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Sun 21 Sep 2025 21:16

Adam Cusworth 21 Sep 2025

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Jeremy Cameron is the best bet for the 2025 Norm Smith Medal, especially if Geelong wins.
Josh Dunkley represents the next best value, with strong finals output for Brisbane.
Value picks: Zac Bailey (Brisbane) and Ollie Dempsey (Geelong) could surprise at long odds.

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Will Ashcroft took out the Norm Smith Medal in 2024 (Getty Images)

2025 Norm Smith Medal Preview

2025 Norm Smith Medal Preview
2025 Norm Smith Medal Best Bet- Jeremy Cameron
2025 Norm Smith Medal Next Best- Josh Dunkley
2025 Norm Smith Medal Value Bet- Zac Bailey
2025 Norm Smith Medal Value Bet- Ollie Dempsey

The Norm Smith Medal is the ultimate prize for individual brilliance on the AFL’s biggest day — awarded to the player judged best on ground in the Grand Final, it’s where legends are made and careers are defined.

Awarded to the best player on ground in the AFL Grand Final, the Norm Smith Medal is judged by an independent panel of footy experts and remains the ultimate individual honour on the biggest stage of the season.

Named after Melbourne coaching great Norm Smith, the medal was introduced in 1979 and features some of the game’s most iconic names on its honour roll — from three-time winner Dustin Martin, to superstars like Gary Ablett, Nathan Buckley, and Chris Judd.

Gary Ayres and Luke Hodge (Hawthorn), along with Andrew McLeod (Adelaide), are among the few to win it multiple times, while Will Ashcroft claimed the honour last year as Brisbane’s midfield general in their premiership triumph.

Midfielders have dominated the award, with seven of the last eight Norm Smith Medals going to players who control the contest and rack up touches. That includes Christian Petracca (2021), who added two goals to a 39-disposal performance, and Dustin Martin, who kicked 10 goals across three Grand Finals.

In 2023, Bobby Hill bucked the trend, winning the medal as a small forward after booting four goals in Collingwood’s four-point win over Brisbane — saluting at odds of up to $101 in some markets.

Geelong enter the Grand Final as clear favourites, with Cats players dominating the early betting markets. Midfield stars Bailey Smith ($6) and Max Holmes ($7) lead the charge, closely followed by Patrick Dangerfield at $7.50 — who was best on ground in Geelong’s commanding Preliminary Final win over Hawthorn.

Last year’s Norm Smith Medallist, Will Ashcroft, is rated a strong $9 chance to go back-to-back, while Jeremy Cameron, Lachie Neale, and Hugh McCluggage all sit around the $13 mark.

The two finalists have clashed three times this season, with Brisbane holding a 2-1 edge. However, Geelong put the foot down in the most recent meeting — a dominant 38-point victory in the Qualifying Final.

Ollie Dempsey starred for the Cats that day, collecting 25 disposals and kicking three goals, while Holmes and Cameron also made their presence felt. For Brisbane, Josh Dunkley and Ashcroft stood tall. Hugh McCluggage was quiet but bounced back impressively to be one of Brisbane’s best in their win over Collingwood, while Zac Bailey gave the Magpies plenty of headaches.

2025 Norm Smith Medal Best Bet- Jeremy Cameron

In the 45-year history of the award, only four players have come from a losing side so alot will depend on just which side you think will win. If Geelong win the flag, Jeremy Cameron is every chance to be the difference — and that puts him firmly in the Norm Smith conversation. A proven match-winner, Cameron doesn't need high disposal numbers to dominate, with his scoreboard impact and game-breaking ability making him a genuine threat. He’s in strong finals form after kicking three and setting up more in the Preliminary Final, and already has four majors against Brisbane earlier this year. With Harris Andrews likely going to Shannon Neale, Cameron could get a favourable matchup, and his record at the MCG — multiple goals in five straight — adds to his case. With 88 goals this season and the ability to stretch Brisbane’s defence, he shapes as serious value in a market dominated by midfielders.

2025 Norm Smith Medal Next Best- Josh Dunkley

Josh Dunkley is built for Grand Final footy — tough, reliable, and influential at both ends of the ground. A proven performer in big games, Dunkley combines contested ball-winning with elite two-way pressure, and he has the engine to impact across all four quarters. He’s had 25+ disposals in six straight games against Geelong, including a 26-touch, 10-tackle effort in the Qualifying Final, and was one of Brisbane’s best again in the Preliminary Final win over Collingwood. With midfielders dominating the Norm Smith Medal in recent years, Dunkley fits the mould perfectly — especially if he limits the influence of a Dangerfield or Bailey Smith while racking up strong numbers himself. Often overlooked behind names like Neale and McCluggage, he presents underrated value and could easily emerge as the key figure if the Lions get over the line, especially with concerns over the fitness of Neale combined with the likelihood of McCluggage copping a tag from Oisin Mullin.

2025 Norm Smith Medal Value Bet- Zac Bailey

Zac Bailey shapes as one of the best value plays for this year’s Norm Smith Medal. The Brisbane hybrid forward/midfielder has been building into peak form at the right time of year. He racked up 21 disposals and two goals in the Preliminary Final win over Collingwood and had 27 touches in the Qualifying Final loss to Geelong. Bailey fits the Norm Smith mould — explosive, clean by foot, and capable of breaking games open with scoreboard impact. With so much defensive attention likely going to Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and Josh Dunkley, Bailey can fly under the radar and produce game-shaping moments. He thrives in high-pressure situations, hits the scoreboard when it matters, and is often the spark when Brisbane go on a run. Like past winners Dustin Martin and Cyril Rioli, he’s a player who doesn’t need 35 touches to leave a serious mark. At double-figure odds in most markets, he’s well worth a look.

2025 Norm Smith Medal Value Bet- Ollie Dempsey

Ollie Dempsey is no stranger to awards, having taken out the Rising Star last year, while he kickstarted Geelong’s finals campaign with a massive performance against Brisbane in the Qualifying Final. The running wingman/half forward turned heads in that match with 25 disposals and three goals. He’s clean by foot, electric in space, and has the ability to hit the scoreboard or set up teammates with smart ball use inside 50. With so much defensive attention on Geelong’s big names like Jeremy Cameron, Patrick Dangerfield and Tyson Stengle, Dempsey is another that might get the matchups he wants — and can make them count. If he strings together another 20+ disposal, 2+ goal performance on Grand Final day, he could follow in the footsteps of Bobby Hill in 2023 and steal the medal at long odds.

Verdict

Norm Smith Medal

Jeremy Cameron and Josh Dunkley to feature in the votes with Zac Bailey and Ollie Dempsey the value plays

Jeremy Cameron

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One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.