Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Semi Final Tips - Lions to respond with emphatic win against Crows
The Brisbane Lions are tipped to bounce back in the AFL Semi Final after a heavy loss to Sydney. At the Gabba, their home fortress, Brisbane have dominated recent matches – winning the last five by an average of 60 points. Will Ashcroft is poised for a big game in the midfield, supported by Logan Morris, who has been in hot goal-scoring form. Adelaide will need sustained pressure to challenge the Lions, but Brisbane's depth and firepower suggest a comfortable win and progression to the Preliminary Final against Hawthorn.
- Brisbane dominate at Gabba, winning last five by 60+ points on average.
- Will Ashcroft & Logan Morris are key players to watch for the Lions.
- Adelaide need sustained pressure but Brisbane tipped for a comfortable win.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Preview
- Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Preview
- Head to Head
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Team News
- Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
- Adelaide Crows Team News
Brisbane will bounce back in emphatic fashion at the Gabba and end Adelaide's season with a comfortable victory.
Expect a vastly different Lions side to come out against Sydney in the Qualifying Final. Expect the back-to-back premiers to bring considerably more pressure around the contest and look to establish control through the midfield from the opening bounce, while their ability to turn territory into big scores at the Gabba makes them difficult to contain once they gain momentum. The Lions have won their past five matches at the venue by an average of 60 points and another strong home performance can see them cover the -18.5 line, with Brisbane by 40+ points also appealing at bigger odds.
Will Ashcroft can be central to that response through the middle. He averaged 33 disposals across the final 10 matches of the home-and-away season and should see plenty of the football against an Adelaide midfield that allowed the Western Bulldogs to generate plenty of stoppage wins and inside-50 opportunities last weekend. Brisbane will want to dictate the game through clearance and possession rather than allow Adelaide to turn this into a scrap, and Ashcroft 30+ disposals looks a strong player angle in the Semi Final clash.
The Lions should also have a major advantage if they can supply their forwards with repeat entries. Adelaide's defence were able to withstand significant pressure against the Bulldogs, but doing the same against Brisbane at the Gabba is a much tougher proposition. Oscar Allen, Eric Hipwood and Logan Morris give the Lions several dangerous marking options and should stretch the Crows defensively, while their small forwards can become increasingly influential as the game opens up.
Morris shapes as one of the best goalscorer options of the match after kicking 18 goals across his past four appearances. With Allen and Hipwood demanding attention, Morris should continue to receive favourable opportunities close to goal and 3+ goals appeals. Adelaide have enough quality through Izak Rankine, Jordan Dawson and their forward line to remain competitive early, but Brisbane should gradually take control before putting the Crows away after half-time. The Lions can cover the line and progress to another Preliminary Final, where Hawthorn at the MCG awaits. The Brisbane and Adelaide match-up is the second of the two Semi Finals with the Fremantle vs Geelong contest set for Friday night.
- Brisbane responded to a Qualifying Final loss last year with a 53-point win over the Gold Coast Suns at the Gabba.
- The Lions were 52-point winners at the venue against Adelaide earlier this season and have won their past five at the Gabba by an average of 60 points.
- Logan Morris has kicked 18 goals in his past four matches.
- Will Ashcroft averaged 33 disposals across the final 10 home-and-away matches.
Head to Head
Brisbane were dominant when these sides met at the Gabba in Round 7 this season, recording a 52-point victory, and the Lions have now won their past five matches against Adelaide at the venue.
The two clubs have met twice previously in finals, with both clashes coming during Brisbane's premiership era in the early 2000s and both resulting in comprehensive Lions victories.
Standout player performances in recent head-to-heads have come from:
- Lachie Neale (Lions) - 42 disposals in the most recent meeting.
- Will Ashcroft (Lions) - Averaging 33.5 disposals across his past two matches against Adelaide.
- Charlie Cameron (Lions) - Eight goals across his past three matches against the Crows.
- Rory Laird (Crows) - 25+ disposals in his past eight matches against Brisbane, including 29 in the most recent meeting.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane finished third on the ladder but suffered a major setback when beaten by Sydney by 53 points in the Qualifying Final, going down 21.15 (141) to 13.10 (88). The Swans dominated territory with a 69-52 inside-50 advantage and won the clearances 45-35, while Brisbane struggled to apply their usual pressure and were repeatedly opened up from stoppage and defensive transition. Oscar Allen kicked four goals and Dayne Zorko collected 26 disposals, but the Lions were comprehensively outplayed.
The defeat came after an excellent finish to the home-and-away season, with Brisbane winning 10 of their previous 11 matches. That run included a 67-point victory against Hawthorn at the Gabba, a 42-point win over Gold Coast and a 63-point triumph against Collingwood. Their forward structure also began clicking late in the season, with Allen's return adding another dangerous tall alongside Eric Hipwood and Logan Morris.
Brisbane have been formidable at the Gabba, posting an 8-3 record there this season and winning their past five matches at the venue by an average margin of more than 60 points. Zorko has registered 25+ disposals in four of his past five matches, while Ashcroft's 21 touches against Sydney were his lowest tally since Round 5 after averaging 33 across the final 10 home-and-away matches. Morris has also emerged as one of the competition's hottest forwards with 18 goals across his past four matches. Brisbane have won Semi Finals in each of the past two seasons.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Oscar Allen will be monitored after hurting his ankle during the Qualifying Final against Sydney. He was able to return to the field, play most of the match and finish with four goals before being taken out late once the result was beyond doubt. The fact he was able to play through the issue was encouraging, but his fitness will need to be assessed during the week. Hugh McCluggage returned to the side against Sydney after his recent injury absence and got through the match.
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Adelaide finished sixth with a 15-8 win-loss record before defeating the Western Bulldogs by 22 points in their Elimination Final, winning 14.6 (90) to 9.14 (68). The Crows were highly efficient despite conceding both territory and stoppage numbers, losing the inside-50 count 61-49 and centre clearances 17-7. Their defence absorbed enormous pressure, with Josh Worrell collecting 34 disposals, 10 marks and 19 intercept possessions, while Wayne Milera finished with 27 disposals at 100 per cent efficiency.
Izak Rankine was outstanding with 34 disposals and two goals, Jordan Dawson collected 28 disposals and Josh Rachele kicked three goals as Adelaide secured their seventh victory from their past nine matches. The Crows have been competitive away from home with a 6-4 record on the road this season, although their results against the leading sides have been less convincing with a 2-5 record against top-six opposition.
Rankine has recorded 30+ disposals in six of his past eight matches, while Dawson has collected at least 28 disposals in five consecutive games. Adelaide's pressure has been one of their greatest strengths and gives them a chance of making Brisbane uncomfortable if they can sustain it for four quarters. However, the Crows were eliminated at the Semi Final stage by Hawthorn last season and now face a significant challenge travelling to the Gabba against the two-time reigning premiers.
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide came through their Elimination Final against the Western Bulldogs without a fresh injury concern reported in the match report. Callum Ah Chee returned to the senior side and kicked a goal, giving the Crows another experienced option across half-forward while allowing Izak Rankine to spend more time through the midfield.
Verdict
Brisbane too strong with Ashcroft and Morris among the major players.
Brisbane -20.5
Line
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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