Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Tips - Close one in store at the GABBA
The upcoming AFL Round 7 clash between Brisbane Lions and Adelaide Crows promises to be a hard-fought contest, with both teams currently holding a 3-3 record. Brisbane, last year’s premiers, are poised to exploit the Crows' habitual slow starts, especially at their home ground, GABBA. Although Brisbane lost narrowly to Melbourne last week, their key players like Lachie Neale are expected to dominate the midfield. Meanwhile, Adelaide's strength lies in their defensive strategy. Expect Charlie Cameron of Brisbane to shine in a low-scoring, tight game.
- AFL Round 7 features a tight matchup between the 3-3 Brisbane Lions and Adelaide Crows.
- Brisbane aims to capitalize on the Crows' slow starts; Charlie Cameron expected to excel.
- Game expected to be low-scoring, with strong defensive plays from both teams.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Preview
- Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows Preview
- Head to Head
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Team News
- Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
- Adelaide Crows Team News
The Round 7 clash pits last year’s premiers, Brisbane, up against last year’s minor premiers, Adelaide and with both sides sitting at 3-3, there is plenty on the line.
This shapes as a tight, contested battle where scoring is at a premium, with the total points under firmly in play and Brisbane favoured to grind out a win in the 1–39 point range.
The Lions two-point loss to Melbourne last weekend highlighted both their strengths and vulnerabilities. They won key metrics including clearances and inside 50 efficiency, but costly turnovers and inaccuracy at key moments proved the difference.
Expect the premiers to bounce back fiercely, limiting Adelaide’s ability to generate rebound from half-back. Their midfield, led by Lachie Neale, should again find plenty of the ball, while their forward line, will look to dominate the aerial battle and look to capitalise on ground-level opportunities with Charlie Cameron lurking ominously.
Adelaide will be ready and have featured in a number of high pressure contests already this season, responding late to hold out St Kilda by a point in the most recent of those. The Crows’ strength lies in their defensive setup and ball movement off half-back. Josh Worrell and Wayne Milera provide strong rebound and composure, and their ability to generate intercept possessions will be key in keeping the game within reach.
However, their slow starts remain a concern. Falling behind early against quality opposition, particularly at the GABBA, is a dangerous trend. Brisbane are well-equipped to punish that through territory and repeat entries, and if Adelaide concede early control, they may be forced to chase the game.
Despite a host of stars in the lineups for either side, the Round 7 match is unlikely to be a free-flowing, high-scoring affair. Both sides have shown a tendency for games to tighten under pressure, and with margins consistently close between these two, expect another arm wrestle.
Charlie Cameron looms as a major threat, with his ability to impact in bursts and capitalise on forward-half turnovers. Given his strong record against Adelaide, he is well placed to hit the scoreboard again with Brisbane edging clear in a tight contest, with the total points under a likely outcome.
- Adelaide’s six matches this season have been decided by an average margin of 10 points.
- The past five matches between the two sides have been decided by an average margin of eight points.
- Charlie Cameron kicked three goals last week and has booted 2+ in nine of his past 10 against Adelaide.
- Josh Worrell is averaging 26 disposals per game this season.
Head to Head
Brisbane threw away victory against Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in Round 13 last season, kicking 0.8 to 5.0 in the last quarter to lose by five points. The Lions were 11-point winners in Round 18 of 2024 at the GABBA. The home side has not lost a game in this matchup since 2022.
Standout player performances in recent meetings have come from:
- Rory Laird (Adelaide) – Has had 25+ disposals in his past seven against Brisbane.
- Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane) – 25+ disposals in three of his past four.
- Charlie Cameron (Brisbane) – 2+ goals in nine of his last 10 against Adelaide.
- Taylor Walker (Adelaide) – 2+ goals in four of his past five.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
After a slow and injury-affected start to the season that saw them lose their first two matches, the Lions bounced back with three straight victories before going down to Melbourne by two points last weekend.
They were unable to fully impose their game, with Melbourne able to lock the ball in their forward half for periods. Despite this, Brisbane still generated strong numbers around stoppage and inside 50 efficiency, highlighting their ability to compete even when not at their best.
Charlie Cameron and Logan Morris both kicked three goals, while Lachie Neale (31 disposals), Darcy Wilmot (27) and Will Ashcroft (26) were prominent. Neale continues to average 30 disposals this season, while Ashcroft has reached 30 on three occasions.
Brisbane have been slightly inconsistent at the GABBA, winning eight of their past 13 home-and-away matches at the venue. However, they remain a side capable of controlling games through their midfield and forward pressure.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Darcy Fort missed the Melbourne clash with illness and is expected to return, likely replacing Zane Zakostelsky. Dane Zorko remains sidelined.
There were other injury concerns out of the Melbourne game, with Jarrod Berry (calf) to be assessed and Noah Answerth entering concussion protocols. Brisbane were also short on rotations late in the match, which contributed to their inability to close out the game.
With a number of players banged up, squad management will be important, but the core of their midfield and forward line remains intact heading into this clash.
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Adelaide have bounced back from a three-game losing streak with consecutive wins over Carlton and St Kilda, improving to a 3-3 record.
Their win over St Kilda was a classic arm wrestle, coming from 26 points down before holding on in a one-point thriller. The Crows were able to execute key moments late, a significant improvement on previous weeks where similar situations had gone against them.
Taylor Walker led the way with five goals, while Riley Thilthorpe added three. Across half-back, Wayne Milera (29 disposals) and Josh Worrell (28) were instrumental in setting up play.
Adelaide’s game style remains built around defence and efficiency rather than volume. They rank lower for disposals and inside 50s, but their ability to stay in games through structure and execution has kept margins tight throughout the season.
Adelaide Crows Team News
Jordan Dawson is expected to return after missing last week for personal reasons, providing a significant boost to Adelaide’s midfield.
Dan Curtin and Callum Ah Chee are nearing returns but are likely to need another week. The Crows are likely to maintain a similar lineup, with minimal changes outside of Dawson’s
Verdict
Brisbane in a tight one with the total points under the play. Worrell to continue strong form for Adelaide with the former Crow, Charlie Cameron, lurking dangerously at ground level
Brisbane Lions 1-39
Winning Margin 1-39
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Under 187.5
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Josh Worrell
To Have 25+ disposals
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Charlie Cameron
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