Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions Tips - Lions lock in top four spot with win over plucky Pies
Brisbane Lions look to secure a top-four finish and the invaluable double chance in finals with a win against Collingwood at the MCG. Collingwood, locked into the wildcard zone, will focus on maintaining form, while Brisbane rides a hot streak of 9 wins in their last 10 games. Both teams thrive on high scoring, with midfield stars Nick Daicos and Will Ashcroft primed for big games. Brisbane’s greater stakes and recent dominance suggest they are the team to beat, but Collingwood at the MCG remains formidable.
- Brisbane secures top-four finish and double chance with a win.
- Both teams averaging high scores; expect an attacking game.
- Ashcroft and Daicos predicted to be standout midfielders.
Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions Preview
- Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions Preview
- Head to Head
- Collingwood Form Analysis
- Collingwood Team News
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane will secure the double chance with a win in front of a huge crowd at the MCG on Friday evening.
Collingwood cannot progress beyond the wildcard zone and are likely to play a home final at the MCG regardless of the result. Brisbane have considerably more at stake, with victory guaranteeing a top-four finish and the double chance, while defeat could see them tumble as low as seventh and into the wildcard round.
The Lions are hitting form at exactly the right time, winning nine of their past 10 matches after sitting 6-6 midway through the season. They have responded to their heavy loss against Carlton with a 67-point victory over Hawthorn and a 42-point win over Gold Coast, with their pressure around the contest a feature of both performances. Brisbane can make it three straight against Victorian opposition, although Collingwood’s competitiveness at the MCG makes the 1-39 margin the safer play.
There should also be plenty of scoring. Collingwood are averaging 97 points per game across their past six matches, while Brisbane are averaging 110 across their past 10. The Magpies’ past seven matches have produced an average combined score of 176 points and both sides have enough attacking quality to push the total beyond the line.
Nick Daicos and Will Ashcroft can put on a midfield masterclass in the Round 24 clash. Daicos averages more than 30 disposals throughout his career against Brisbane and has recorded 30+ in nine of his past 11 matches overall. Ashcroft comes off 31 disposals against Gold Coast and has remarkably reached 30+ in seven consecutive matches, making the 30+ double an attractive play.
- 13 of Collingwood’s last 15 matches at the MCG have been decided by less than 39.5 points.
- Nick Daicos averages over 30 disposals throughout his career against Brisbane.
- Will Ashcroft has had 30+ disposals in his past seven matches.
- Collingwood are averaging 97 points per game in their past six matches, Brisbane are averaging 110 points in their past 10 matches.
Head to Head
Brisbane have taken out the past three between the two sides by 27 points or more. They were 54-point winners over the Magpies earlier this season at the GABBA.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Josh Daicos (Pies)- 25+ disposals in his past five against Brisbane
- Nick Daicos (Pies) averages over 30 disposals across his career against the Lions
- Dayne Zorko (Lions)- 28 disposals in each of his past two against Collingwood
- Dan McStay (Pies)- four goals in his most recent meeting against Brisbane
- Kai Lohmann (Lions)- four goals in his most recent meeting against the Magpies.
Collingwood Form Analysis
Collingwood come into Round 24 following a thrilling 92-92 draw against Hawthorn. The Magpies had won seven of their previous eight matches, although their recent record at the MCG includes a loss to Geelong and the draw with the Hawks. They have also found life considerably tougher against the competition’s leading sides, recording just one win, six losses and two draws against top-six opposition.
Scoring has not been an issue, with Collingwood averaging 97 points across their past six matches. Nick Daicos remains prolific through the midfield and has recorded 30+ disposals in nine of his past 11 matches, while Josh Daicos has reached 25+ in eight of his past 10. Dan McStay has also kicked multiple goals in seven consecutive matches.
Brisbane enter in stronger form, winning nine of their past 10 matches and bouncing back from their loss to Carlton with convincing victories over Hawthorn and Gold Coast. The Lions are averaging 110 points across the past 10 rounds and will arrive at the MCG with significant momentum.
Collingwood Team News
Steele Sidebottom was a late withdrawal from the Hawks match due to illness and is expected to be available but it will be interesting to see how Collingwood go about managing their veterans, as well as their star player, with the wildcard round to come. A number of young players continue to impress both in the senior lineup and in the VFL.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane have surged into top-four contention on the back of nine wins from their past 10 matches. Their only defeat in that period was the heavy loss to Carlton, and they have responded emphatically with a 67-point victory against Hawthorn followed by a 42-point win against Gold Coast.
Their pressure game has been particularly impressive over the past fortnight, while the Lions are averaging 110 points across their past 10 matches. Their only previous trip to the MCG this season resulted in a two-point loss to Melbourne, although their previous appearance at the venue came in their 2025 Grand Final triumph.
Will Ashcroft continues to produce extraordinary numbers through the midfield. He collected another 31 disposals against Gold Coast and has now recorded 30+ in seven consecutive matches, while Logan Morris kicked four goals against the Suns and has eight across his past two.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane reported no injuries from their 42-point win over Gold Coast, leaving them in good shape ahead of their crucial final-round trip to the MCG. Ty Gallop is set to return from suspension, while Kaedean Coleman was strong in his return from injury via the VFL and is a chance to come in. Hugh McCluggage continues to progress from a calf injury but is likely to be saved for finals.
Verdict
Lions to strong as big names from both sides tune up for finals
Brisbane 1-39
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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