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Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Tips & Preview - AFL Qualifying Final to see Cats edge past Lions

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Wed 03 Sep 2025 10:10

Adam Cusworth 03 Sep 2025

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Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Friday’s Qualifying Final AFL game
Brisbane has won last 3 matchups, including 2024 Preliminary Final
But Geelong have hit strong form with 12 wins from last 14

Expired

Geelong and Brisbane lock horns again in September MCG action (Getty Images)

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL Qualifying Final Preview
Head to Head
Geelong Cats Form
Geelong Cats Team News
Brisbane Lions Form
Brisbane Lions Team News

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL Qualifying Final Preview

Brisbane have had the better of Geelong in their last three clashes between the sides, including last year’s thrilling Preliminary Final at the MCG. I'm backing the Cats to turn the tables this time around and make a big finals statement.

Geelong have won 12 of their past 14 matches
The past five matches between the two sides have been decided by 1-39 points
Jeremy Cameron kicked four goals for the Cats the last time the two sides met
Josh Dunkley has had 25+ disposals in his past five matches against Geelong.

Head to Head

Brisbane have won the past three between the two sides, including both matches this season, as well as the 2024 Preliminary Final by 10 points at the MCG.

The two sides have met three times at the MCG and it is Brisbane with the advantage at 2-1.

Geelong Cats Form

Geelong have won 12 of their past 14 matches but have not really been tested out too much in that period with the 12 wins all against sides outside of the top eight, while the two losses in that period were to GWS and Brisbane.

The Cats have kicked over 100 points in 12 of their past 15 matches and it is Jeremy Cameron that has capitalised with 83 goals for the season, just 17 away from the magical ton. However, his average is just over two goals per game with 19 from the nine matches this season against sides in the eight.

Bailey Smith comes off a 34 disposal match against Richmond and has gone 30+ in 11 of his past 14. Tom Atkins and Max Holmes had over 25 against the Tigers. Holmes has had 25 or more in five of his past six.

Geelong Cats Team News

Geelong will regain Shannon Neale from suspension and have just one player on the injury list, Toby Conway.

A number of big names featured in the Cats last VFL match and are available for selection, including Cam Guthrie, Mitch Duncan and Ollie Henry

Brisbane Lions Form

Brisbane have won seven of their past nine matches and have claimed their past three against sides in the top eight, handing Fremantle a 57-point defeat in Round 23 before their victory over Hawthorn. Over the course of the season, they have a 9-4 record against sides in the top half.

In the past five rounds, the Lions rank in the top three in the competition for disposals, while they are in the top three for clearances and inside 50s.

Finishing off has been a slight issue, with the Lions ranking 13th for goals per inside 50 and they will need to improve their conversion after kicking 11.23 against the Hawks.

The Lions had a quartet of players that booted two goals in that match, incuding Cam Rayner, who has hit the 2+ in four of his past five, as well as Charlie Cameron, who has booted five goals in his past two matches.

Brisbane Lions Team News

Brisbane are set to regain the two-time Brownlow Medallist, Lachie Neale, for the finals series, while Jarrod Berry is set to play, despite dislocating his shoulder in Round 23 against Fremantle.

Verdict

Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions

Cats are backed to win a classic with Jeremy Cameron standing tall. Josh Dunkley is backed amongst the disposals for the Lions.

Geelong 1-39

Winning Margin 1-39

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Josh Dunkley

To Have 25+ disposals

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One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.