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Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL Betting Tips - Dees to edge Dons in Round 14

gary-emmerson
Gary Emmerson
Editor
Last updated: Fri 12 Jun 2026 10:59
The Melbourne Demons are set for a redemption clash against Essendon Bombers, following a previous defeat in Gather Round. The Bombers have won the last two meetings but continue to struggle this season. Melbourne, in top-four contention, are tipped to win a low-scoring game. Key players like Jack Steele and Kozzie Pickett are expected to stand out. Betting tips favour a Demons win by 1-39 points and under 168.5 total points, with Pickett and Steele among the top performers.
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Gary Emmerson 12 Jun 2026
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  • Melbourne tipped to win a low-scoring game, seeking revenge
  • Essendon have struggled but won last two meetings
  • Pickett and Steele tipped as key performers
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demons bombers afl
Essendon Bombers and the Melbourne Demons clash on Saturday (Getty Images)

Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers Verdict


Melbourne Demons are out for revenge after losing this fixture in Gather Round, and they are backed to get it. The trends point to a low-scoring match and I am tipping the Dees to edge it. 

  • Essendon’s recent matches have been low scoring, with their past four games producing totals at an average of 144.
  • The Bombers defeated Melbourne earlier this season. 
  • Jack Steele has had 25+ disposals in four of his past five matches against Essendon
  • Kozzie Pickett booted three goals last weekend

Head to Head Stats


Essendon were surprise winners the last time the two sides met, taking out the Gather Round clash at Adelaide Oval by 45 points.

The Bombers have won the past two between the two sides, while Melbourne were winners the last time they met at the MCG.

Melbourne Demons Form - Top Four Candidates


Melbourne remain firmly in top-four contention with an 8-5 record, overcoming a two-match losing streak to knock over Collingwood in the King’s Birthday encounter by eight points.

The Demons rank fifth in the AFL for scoring and fourth for inside 50s this season, highlighting their ability to create opportunities. Their challenge has been maximising those chances when games tighten up, but they delivered late against the Magpies.

Kozzie Pickett was best on ground with 28 disposals and three goals, while Jack Steele and Harvey Langford both had 26 disposals. 

Steele has had 25+ disposals in four of his past five matches, while Max Gawn continues to be a force in the ruck.

Essendon Bombers Form - Struggling Dons


Essendon have won just one match this season and remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder, but came close last week in the King’s Birthday Eve clash against Carlton, going down by just five points.

That followed a 30-point loss to West Coast the week prior, which was the first of two matches since the club parted ways with Brad Scott.

Zach Merrett led the way with 33 disposals against Carlton, while Will Setterfield had 29 disposals and Sam Durham finished with 30. Merrett has had 30+ disposals in two of his past three, while Archie Roberts has hit that mark in eight of his past 10.

Ben McKay was used as a forward against Carlton and booted two goals. Nate Caddy kicked one but has kicked 2+ in six of his past seven.

Melbourne Demons Team News


Lukas Cooke and Joel Fitzgerald will debut. Jake Melksham and Bailey Laurie are also recalled.

Essendon Bombers Team News


Jordan Ridley and Dyson Sharp return for the Bombers.

Verdict

Melbourne are backed to win by 1-39 points with the total points going under. Pickett and Steele tipped to be among the major contributors.
Best Bet1: Melbourne 1-39 Big Win Little Win @23/24 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Under 168.5 Total Points @7/8 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Jack Steele 25+ Player Disposals @3/4 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Kozzie Pickett 2+ Anytime Goalscorers @7/10 at Ken Howells - 1 Unit
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gary-emmerson
Gary Emmerson

Sports Editor • 30+ Years Experience In Sports & Betting

Gary has been writing about sport for more than 25 years and graduated with a degree in media and journalism. He has worked for newspapers and online, covering everything from horse racing to football and loves a bet.


Follow Gary on Muckrack, Twitter or Linkedin

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Melbourne Demons v Essendon Bombers

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