Melbourne Cup 2026 Tips - 3 value bets to win the Race The Stops A Nation
The 2026 Melbourne Cup at Flemington on 3 November features Point Of Law as the main tip, following his impressive Geelong Cup win and a favourable barrier draw. The Ciaron Maher-trained runner carries just 53kg, offering a weight advantage, but must prove his stamina over 3200m. Trustyourinstinct is also recommended, noted for his strong finishing speed and Group 2 Curragh Cup victory, though faces challenges with a wide barrier and top weight. Zakouma appeals each-way, boasting a light weight, targeted preparation, and proven Flemington form, but must match the class of leading international contenders.
- Point Of Law is tipped to win the 2026 Melbourne Cup after a strong Geelong Cup performance.
- Trustyourinstinct and Zakouma are also recommended, each with proven staying credentials.
- Point Of Law benefits from a light weight and a favourable barrier but must prove stamina at 3200m.
The 2026 Melboune Cup takes place at Flemington on Tuesday, November 3, and we are backing three of the 24 runners in the race.
The Race That Stops A Nation brings together a mix of established international stayers, proven Australian performers and emerging talents in another intriguing edition of the Group 1.
Point Of Law heads the early Melbourne Cup betting following his impressive Geelong Cup victory, ahead of Trustyourinstinct, while Hopewell Rock is next in the market.
2026 Melbourne Cup Tips
Best Bet - Point Of Law
Point Of Law has stormed into Melbourne Cup favouritism following his outstanding Geelong Cup victory on October 21, and the Ciaron Maher-trained import looks one of the most progressive runners in Tuesday's field. There's an obvious question about whether the race has come too early for a horse who only made his debut in April, but it was difficult not to be impressed by his Australian debut, particularly the sustained pressure he absorbed before refusing to surrender in the straight.
Having been forced forward from a wide barrier, Point Of Law contested a strong early tempo before taking control approaching the home turn. He looked vulnerable late as Small Fry and Omni Man began their challenges, but continued to find under Ethan Brown, holding the former by half a length. It was a significant performance against older, established stayers, particularly for a youngster having just his fifth career start and his first Australian race-day experience.
His European form had already established him as a serious staying prospect. The son of Frankel won the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy over 2615m at Newmarket in July, having previously finished a creditable fourth in the Group 2 Queen's Vase over 2846m at Royal Ascot. Those performances provide some encouragement about his ability to handle the rise to 3200m, although the Melbourne Cup will present a very different examination of his stamina, particularly after such a demanding Geelong victory.
Despite receiving a 2kg penalty for that triumph, Point Of Law carries only 53kg on Tuesday, two kilograms less than he shouldered at Geelong. Barrier nine is another significant positive, giving Brown the option of settling closer to the speed without being forced to work as hard as he did from the wide gate last start. He's shown enough tactical versatility to suggest connections won't need to adopt an all-out attacking approach, and a more economical run could make him even more dangerous over the final stages.
The Maher and Brown partnership has become a formidable force, with Brown striking at 25% for the stable this season and having ridden 32 winners for the team over the past 12 months, returning an ROI just below 72%. Point Of Law is still learning his craft and has to prove himself at two miles, but the Geelong Cup performance was exceptional for a horse of his experience, and there's every reason to expect further improvement. He's a deserving favourite and the one to beat in the 2026 Melbourne Cup.
Next Best Bet - Trustyourinstinct
The most appealing aspect of Trustyourinstinct is his ability to produce a genuine turn of foot at the end of a staying contest, a quality that can prove decisive in the Melbourne Cup when the tempo allows horses to settle before building into the race. The Joseph O'Brien-trained gelding has developed into a high-class European stayer this season, and his Group 2 Curragh Cup victory in July demonstrated exactly why he's such an intriguing contender.
Held up at the rear of the six-runner field over 2816m, Trustyourinstinct was still last approaching the business end before unleashing a sharp finishing burst to claim victory by three-quarters of a length. He defeated Happy Pharoah, with the highly regarded Al Riffa back in third, producing a change of speed rarely associated with a genuine staying horse. The strength of that finishing effort makes him particularly dangerous if James McDonald can have him travelling comfortably approaching the Flemington straight.
His final European appearance came in the Group 1 Irish St Leger over the same distance on September 13, finishing fourth behind Scandinavia, Queenstown and Jan Brueghel. Although beaten four and a half lengths, that was strong opposition, and his broader form includes previous placings behind Jan Brueghel, Continuous and Los Angeles. He's won twice this year and has been remarkably consistent against accomplished stayers, suggesting he brings genuine Group 1 credentials rather than merely an attractive international reputation.
The Curragh Cup also provides an interesting historical connection for O'Brien, whose previous Melbourne Cup winners Rekindling and Twilight Payment both won that race before their Flemington triumphs. The trainer has described Trustyourinstinct as a hold-up horse with a strong finishing kick, and the booking of McDonald is particularly encouraging. The champion jockey knows exactly how to navigate a Melbourne Cup, having produced Verry Elleegant to a commanding victory in 2021, although barrier 18 and the gelding's 57kg impost leave him with plenty to overcome.
There remains a question about his ability to reproduce that acceleration at the end of 3200m against a capacity field, while the possibility of rain is another consideration given his preference for a sound surface. However, he's an accomplished and relatively lightly raced stayer for his age, with the right racing style to be a major factor if the contest develops in his favour. If McDonald can secure cover, conserve his energy and delay the challenge until the right moment, Trustyourinstinct has the turn of foot to make a serious impression.
Value Bet - Zakouma
Ever since Zakouma secured his Melbourne Cup berth with victory in the Listed Andrew Ramsden Stakes over 2800m at Flemington on May 16, the first Tuesday in November has been the priority for connections. With his place guaranteed, Grahame Begg has had the luxury of preparing the gelding specifically for this race rather than chasing qualification through the spring, and that makes his recent form worth assessing in a different light.
His first-up sixth in the Listed Heatherlie Stakes was encouraging, particularly given the form surrounding subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Kingswood, while he again made ground in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes over 2000m. The next assignment came in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes over 2400m, where he finished fifth after making a sustained effort from off the speed. He was beaten less than two and a half lengths, and there was enough in the performance to suggest his preparation was progressing as intended.
Begg then elected to give him another race-day outing in the Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day, dropping sharply from 2400m to 1600m against considerably sharper opposition. The race developed in a manner that gave Zakouma little opportunity to make an impression, and he finished last behind Surfin' Bird, but that result needs to be viewed in the context of his preparation. A slowly run mile was always going to be an unsuitable assignment for a horse whose main target was still ten days away, and I'm happy to treat the run primarily as a fitness exercise.
He now gets down to just 52kg, with William Pike retaining the ride after an outstanding Melbourne spring that has included Group 1 victories aboard Cosmic Crusader in both the Turnbull Stakes and Cox Plate. Barrier ten should provide opportunities to find cover and allow Zakouma to build into the contest, while his record of two wins from four Flemington appearances is another positive. Most importantly, he's already proven capable over 2800m at this circuit, and the additional 400m appears well within his scope.
Whether he possesses the class to match the leading international stayers remains the obvious query, but his pedigree offers encouragement. The son of Crowded House is out of the Zabeel mare Dar Es Salaam, a full sister to Group 1 classic winners Gondokoro and Zabeelionaire, who claimed the Queensland Oaks and South Australian Derby respectively. The foundation for a strong staying performance is there, and with a light weight, a deliberately managed preparation and proven Flemington form, Zakouma appeals as an overlooked each-way contender.
2026 Melbourne Cup - Field & Odds
| No. | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Barrier | Weight | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sons And Lovers (GB) | Joseph O'Brien | Dylan Browne McMonagle | 3 | 57.5kg | $21 |
| 2 | Trustyourinstinct (IRE) | Joseph O'Brien | James McDonald | 18 | 57kg | $7.50 |
| 3 | Knight's Choice | John Symons & Sheila Laxon | Robbie Dolan | 2 | 56.5kg | $34 |
| 4 | Middle Earth (GB) | Ciaron Maher | Mark Zahra | 1 | 56.5kg | $13 |
| 5 | Vauban (FR) | Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott | Jordan Childs | 22 | 56.5kg | $51 |
| 6 | Enfjaar (IRE) | Roger Varian | Ray Dawson | 8 | 56kg | $21 |
| 7 | Royal Supremacy (IRE) | Ciaron Maher | Ben Allen | 21 | 56kg | $51 |
| 8 | Wine Dark Sea (GB) | Harry Charlton | Damian Lane | 23 | 56kg | $51 |
| 9 | Asterix (NZ) | Chris Waller | Jye McNeil | 6 | 55kg | $81 |
| 10 | Goodie Two Shoes (IRE) | Joseph O'Brien | Wayne Lordan | 19 | 55kg | $26 |
| 11 | Juja Kibo (IRE) | Ciaron Maher | Sam Clipperton | 14 | 55kg | $12 |
| 12 | Hopewell Rock (IRE) | George Boughey | Zac Lloyd | 15 | 54.5kg | $10 |
| 13 | Onesmoothoperator (USA) | Tim Fitzsimmons | Declan Bates | 13 | 54.5kg | $91 |
| 14 | Soul Of Spain (IRE) | Chris Waller | Tommy Berry | 5 | 54.5kg | $41 |
| 15 | Zahrann (IRE) | Ciaron Maher | Ben Melham | 11 | 54.5kg | $26 |
| 16 | So You Are | Bjorn Baker | Rachel King | 7 | 54kg | $18 |
| 17 | Future History (GB) | Gregory Hickman | Jamie Melham | 12 | 53.5kg | $51 |
| 18 | James J Braddock (GB) | Joseph O'Brien | Craig Williams | 24 | 53.5kg | $13 |
| 19 | Kizlyar (IRE) | Joseph O'Brien | Beau Mertens | 20 | 53.5kg | $34 |
| 20 | Point Of Law (GB) | Ciaron Maher | Ethan Brown | 9 | 53kg | $6.50 |
| 21 | Strictly Business | Thomas Carberry | Michael Dee | 4 | 53kg | $91 |
| 22 | Mr Monaco (GB) | Ciaron Maher | Jabez Johnstone (a) | 16 | 52.5kg | $26 |
| 23 | Zakouma | Grahame Begg | William Pike | 10 | 52kg | $34 |
| 24 | Shockletz (NZ) | Ciaron Maher | Harry Coffey | 17 | 51kg | $11 |
Odds courtesy of CrownBet & correct on 31/10/2026.
Verdict
Our tips for the 2026 Melbourne Cup are:
Point Of Law
To Win
@11/2 - 5 Units
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Trustyourinstinct
To Win
@13/2 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £10
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New customers only. Bet £10+ to receive £10 in Free Bets. 7-day free bet expiry. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. GambleAware.org
Zakouma
Each Way
@33/1 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS
18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org
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