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2026 NRL Grand Final First Tryscorer Tips - 3 predictions for the opening try in Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026 09:29
The 2026 NRL Grand Final first try scorer market shows no single dominant position, with winners from wings, centre, and hooker. The Roosters boast a strong trend, having scored first in their last 11 games as favourites. Key picks for first try scorer are Mark Nawaqanitawase, with 20 tries in 22 games, and Fletcher Sharpe, Newcastle’s top support threat. Lindsay Collins is seen as a valuable outsider. Recommended value bets are Nawaqanitawase (7.50), Sharpe (13.00), and Collins (34.00) for the opener.
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  • Recent Grand Finals show no dominance by any single position for first try scorer.
  • Mark Nawaqanitawase, Fletcher Sharpe, and Lindsay Collins are the top value picks.
  • Roosters have a strong trend - first to score when starting as favourites.
mark Nawaqanitawase sydney roosters
Mark Nawaqanitawase is one of our bets (Getty Images)

2026 NRL Grand Final First Tryscorer Verdict


The past five NRL Grand Finals have seen a winger, two centres and two hookers score the opening try, showing there is no single position that dominates this market. So where does the value lie?

The Roosters do bring a strong trend into Sunday's decider, having scored first in their last 11 matches when starting as favourites.

Mark Nawaqanitawase and Fletcher Sharpe are our leading first try scorer selections for the 2026 NRL Grand Final, with Lindsay Collins our roughie for the Roosters.


Mark Nawaqanitawase


Nawaqanitawase has scored 20 tries in 22 games, including five across his past three matches, and opened the scoring against the Dolphins in last week's preliminary final.

The matchup with Greg Marzhew is another reason to like him. With Sam Walker and Daly Cherry-Evans controlling the kicking game, expect the Roosters to test Marzhew under the high ball and give Nawaqanitawase opportunities in the air.

Fletcher Sharpe


Sharpe has scored 13 tries this season and shapes as Newcastle's most interesting option through his support play.

If Kalyn Ponga or Bradman Best breaks the Roosters defensive line, Sharpe has the speed and instinct to appear on their shoulder and finish the move.

He also scored Newcastle's first try of the 2026 season, collecting a Ponga kick against North Queensland in Round 1.

Lindsay Collins


Collins has scored only three NRL tries this season, but he has developed a habit of finding the line in big moments.

The Roosters prop scored first against Cronulla, crossed for Queensland during the Origin series and scored again in last week's preliminary final against the Dolphins.

If the Roosters get an early attacking set close to Newcastle's line, Collins is our roughie to crash over.

Verdict

Our three best value bets for the Grand Final first try:

Best Bet1: Mark Nawaqanitawase First Try Scorer @13/2 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Fletcher Shapre First Try Scorer @12/1 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Lindsay Collins First Try Scorer @33/1 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Mark Nawaqanitawase
First Try Scorer
@13/2 - 1 Unit
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Fletcher Shapre
First Try Scorer
@12/1 - 1 Unit
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Bet at dabble
Lindsay Collins
First Try Scorer
@33/1 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS

18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports
jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Australian Sports Specialist & Betting Analyst

Jeremy is a freelance journalist who is a true sports activist. A die-hard fan of the NRL all his life and also has a passion for all the major American sports.


From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.

Tipster and presenter on YouTube and a co-founder of The Sports Cap and The Basketball Fix.

You can find Jeremy on Muckrack and LinkedIn.

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