Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights Tips & Preview - NRL Grand Final to go to the wire
The 2026 NRL Grand Final pits the Sydney Roosters against the Newcastle Knights in a highly anticipated matchup. While the Roosters have recent dominance in head-to-heads, most clashes have been tightly contested. Newcastle’s recent surge and resilience in finals make them attractive with a +7.5 point start. Both teams’ dynamic backs, including Dom Young and Daniel Tupou, are expected to shine as anytime tryscorers. Recommendation: take Newcastle +7.5 points, the Game Total over 42.5 points, and watch for a high-scoring thriller.
- Roosters are favorites, but Grand Finals often stay close.
- Expert tip: Newcastle +7.5 and over 42.5 total points.
- Dom Young and Daniel Tupou recommended as anytime try scorers.
NRL Grand Final 2026 Preview & Verdict
Could Newcastle Knights go from wooden spoon to premiership winners in the space of 12 months? They have a strong chance and at the very least can cover with a +7.5 point start against the Sydney Roosters.
The Roosters have won the last six matches against Newcastle, but four of the last five were decided by four points or less. Take Newcastle +7.5 and the Game Total over 42.5 points.
- Only the 2022 Panthers have started as 7.5-point favourites or bigger and covered in a Grand Final since 2019, while the 2019 Roosters won 14-8 as 7.5-point favourites and missed the line.
- 4 of the last 5 Roosters v Knights games have been decided by 4 points or fewer.
- Newcastle have won three straight knockout finals and held Penrith scoreless in the second half with 12 men.
- Both 2026 meetings cleared 42.5, and 2 of the last 3 Grand Finals have gone over the number.
- Dom Young has scored in 4 straight games and has 5 tries in 3 games at Accor Stadium this season.
- Daniel Tupou has scored in 2 straight games and 3 of his last 4, and is the Roosters' best aerial target.
Head to Head Stats
The Roosters have won the last six games against Newcastle, but this has been a much tighter rivalry than that record suggests.
Across the last five meetings the average margin is just 4.6 points, and four of those five games were decided by four points or less. Newcastle would have covered a 7.5-point start in four of those five games.
The two games this season showed both sides of Newcastle. In Round 7 at Allianz Stadium the Knights led 24-12 at halftime behind a Fletcher Hunt hat-trick, before the Roosters piled on 26 unanswered points to win 38-24.
In Round 21 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle led 16-10 in the second half and were level 22-22 with seven minutes left before Daly Cherry-Evans kicked a 77th-minute field goal.
Sydney Roosters Form
The Roosters have found form at exactly the right time. Before the last fortnight they had lost four straight, including a 19-12 qualifying final loss to Penrith, but they have since hit back with a 46-10 demolition of Cronulla and a 36-20 win over the Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium in the preliminary final.
Mark Nawaqanitawase has been the headline act, with five tries in his last three games, including a 90-metre intercept to open the scoring against the Dolphins.
He plays his final rugby league game on Sunday before heading to rugby union in Japan, and it is also Daly Cherry-Evans' last NRL game before he joins Hull FC. There will be plenty of emotion in the Roosters camp.
Sam Walker is back from his syndesmosis injury and Victor Radley is available after taking the early plea, so the Roosters are close to full strength.
The only concern is Connor Watson, who failed a HIA against the Dolphins and needs clearance to play. The Roosters also have two extra days to prepare after playing on Friday night, which is an edge in a fourth straight week of finals footy.
Newcastle Knights Form
Newcastle's run has been remarkable. They finished 7th, lost their last two regular-season games to Manly and the Warriors, then won three straight sudden-death finals, conceding just 34 points across the three games.
The preliminary final win over Penrith was the best of the lot. Sandon Smith, who came through the Roosters system, scored twice and kicked three goals, including a late intercept and 80-metre run to seal the game.
The Knights were down to 12 men from the 36th minute and still held the Panthers scoreless in the second half.
The cost of that game is Phoenix Crossland, who has a four-game ban for the hip-drop on Nathan Cleary. Harrison Graham, who covered at hooker in Round 26, is expected to start.
Newcastle also have less time to recover after playing on Sunday, but this group now has a self-belief it simply did not have earlier in the year, and with Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best and Dominic Young all in the side, they have enough strike to trouble the Roosters' edges.
Verdict
Take Newcastle +7.5 and the Game Total over 42.5. Dom Young and Daniel Tupou are the anytime tryscorer plays.
Newcastle +7.5
Line
@7/8 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS
Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad
Over 42.5
Game Total
@10/11 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £10
Promo Code: NEWBONUS
New customers only. Bet £10+ to receive £10 in Free Bets. 7-day free bet expiry. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. GambleAware.org
Dom Young
Anytime Tryscorer
@16/11 - 2 Units
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS
18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org
Daniel Tupou
Anytime Tryscorer
@20/21 - 3 Units
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS
Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.
Ryan is an Australian sports content writer, producing insights and analysis for NRL, AFL and Basketball. He is also our YouTube host and presenter, can be found on Bets.com.au and is also a co-founder of The Sport Cap and The Basketball Fix.
From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between.
Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.
Read More
Top Betting Sites
Betting offers
Upcoming Events
21 September 2026
- EMEA Masters 2026 Summer -
- Esports
24 September 2026
- VALORANT Champions 2026 -
- Esports
- EuroLeague 2026/27 -
- Basketball
28 September 2026
- WTA Beijing -
- Tennis
Load More
Sports Tips Starts in
Today's Acca Tips
-
Soccer tips
-
Horse Racing tips
