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Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights Tips - Tight NRL Preliminary Final predicted with 4 best bets

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Wed 23 Sep 2026 06:24
The Newcastle Knights look to continue their Cinderella run, facing the in-form Penrith Panthers. While Penrith historically dominates this matchup, Newcastle's recent defensive surge and back-to-back finals wins make them tough opponents. With strong performances from Bradman Best and Fletcher Sharpe—and Penrith defensive stability—the recommendation is to back the Knights +10.5 in a low-scoring game, with under 42.5 total points. Both Best and Sharpe offer strong try scorer value. Penrith's injury list is easing, while Newcastle retain the squad that upset the Warriors.
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Jeremy Darke 23 Sep 2026
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  • Penrith favoured, but Newcastle's recent defensive form makes +10.5 line appealing
  • Best bet: Knights +10.5 & under 42.5 points in a predicted low-scoring game
  • Bradman Best & Fletcher Sharpe are good value anytime tryscorers
knights panthers nrl
Newcastle Knights and Penrith Panthers battle for a place in the Grand Final (Getty Images)

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights Verdict


Newcastle have beaten South Sydney and the Warriors and now bid to take the scalp of the Penrith Panthers. The Knights might just do it, but the best bet is a +10.5 line being covered. 

Bradman Best and Fletcher Sharpe are backed in the tryscorer markets in what is predicted to be a low-scoring affair.

  • Penrith have won nine of their last 10 games against Newcastle.
  • Newcastle have won seven of their last nine Sunday matches.
  • Penrith have won just one of their last four matches at Accor Stadium.
  • Penrith's last six matches have finished under their respective game totals.
  • Newcastle have conceded just 20 points across their two finals victories.

Head to Head


Penrith have dominated this matchup recently, winning nine of the last 10 meetings between the clubs.

The most recent was particularly convincing, with the Panthers travelling to Newcastle in Round 8 this season and winning 44-12. Penrith also won 48-12 at McDonald Jones Stadium last season.

There is one notable exception. Newcastle travelled to Penrith in 2025 and came away with a 25-6 victory, showing they have been capable of upsetting the Panthers during this recent stretch.

Penrith Panthers Form Analysis


The Panthers have had a week to prepare after beating the Roosters 19-12 in their qualifying final and enter Sunday having won four consecutive matches.

Defence continues to be their foundation. Penrith conceded only 46 points across those four victories, an average of 11.5 per game, and finished the regular season as the NRL's No.1 ranked defence for points conceded.

Nathan Cleary has been named despite the foot issue he picked up against the Roosters. He kicked the decisive field goal in that victory, while Dylan Edwards produced 210 metres from 28 runs and Brian To'o sealed the result with a late try.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis


Newcastle's transformation from 2025 wooden spooners to preliminary finalists has continued with consecutive elimination wins over South Sydney and the Warriors.

The Knights beat Souths 20-10 before heading across the Tasman and grinding out a 12-10 win at Eden Park. Kalyn Ponga was again central to everything Newcastle did, while Fletcher Sharpe scored their crucial try and finished with 133 metres and 10 tackle busts.

That defensive improvement is the biggest reason to consider the +10.5. Newcastle conceded an average of 29.2 points across their previous five games entering this stage of the season, but have allowed only 10 points in each of their two finals.

Team News


Nathan Cleary has been named despite his foot injury, with Isaah Yeo returning to lock and Jack Cogger and Luke Garner back in the Panthers squad.

Newcastle have retained the same 19-man squad from the win over the Warriors, with Dylan Lucas expected to see more minutes after successfully returning from his fractured ankle.

Verdict

The Knights are on upset alert so take them +10.5 with the score staying under 42.5. Bradman Best and Fletcher Sharpe are the good odds try scorers.

Best Bet1: Newcastle +10.5 Handicap/Line @10/11 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 42.5 Game Total @10/11 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Bradman Best Anytime Tryscorer @13/4 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Fletcher Sharpe Anytime Tryscorer @13/5 at Hollywoodbets - 1 Unit
Newcastle +10.5
Handicap/Line
@10/11 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad

Bet at bet365
Under 42.5
Game Total
@10/11 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £10
Promo Code: NEWBONUS

New customers only. Bet £10+ to receive £10 in Free Bets. 7-day free bet expiry. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. GambleAware.org

Bet at dabble
Bradman Best
Anytime Tryscorer
@13/4 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS

18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports
Fletcher Sharpe
Anytime Tryscorer
@13/5 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

Bet at Hollywoodbets
jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Australian Sports Specialist & Betting Analyst

Jeremy is a freelance journalist who is a true sports activist. A die-hard fan of the NRL all his life and also has a passion for all the major American sports.


From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.

Tipster and presenter on YouTube and a co-founder of The Sports Cap and The Basketball Fix.

You can find Jeremy on Muckrack and LinkedIn.

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