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Papua New Guinea vs Lebanon Tips & Preview - PNG to struggle to cover line in Rugby League World Cup

andrew-hendrie
Andrew Hendrie
Editor
Last updated: Thu 15 Oct 2026 10:05
Papua New Guinea (PNG) face Lebanon for the first time in competitive rugby league. While PNG are strong at home, winning 14 of their last 15 games, Lebanon have consistently covered the pre-game line at World Cups. PNG recently reached the 2022 quarter-finals, while Lebanon impressed with wins against Ireland and Jamaica. Both teams miss key players; PNG's Alex Johnston is injured and Lebanon's Mitch Moses plays for Australia. Despite a +16.5 handicap, Lebanon are predicted to keep it close, but PNG are the favourites at home.
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Andrew Hendrie 15 Oct 2026
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  • Papua New Guinea are strong at home, with 14 wins in their last 15 games
  • Lebanon consistently cover the pre-game line in World Cups and are predicted to keep the match close
  • Both nations are missing key NRL players, impacting team balance for this high-stakes clash
papua new guinea rugby league
Papua New Guinea (Getty Images)


Papua New Guinea vs Lebanon Verdict


PNG have a big +16.5 handicap to cover and I think they might struggle against a solid Lebanon outfit. They have a chance of an upset, but are good value with start and to limit PNG's victory margin should the favourites prevail.
  • PNG have won 14 of their last 15 games on home soil
  • Lebanon have covered the pre-game line in their last eight World Cup games
  • Jacob Kiraz scored a try in both games he started as fullback for Canterbury this season
  • Sylvester Namo has scored four tries in his last nine games for PNG, including three of the bench in his last five. He also scored in the final game of the QLD Cup season for Brisbane Tigers

Head To Head

This will be the first competitive meeting between the two nations.

Papua New Guinea Form

PNG come into this clash having won five of their last six internationals - three victories over Fiji and two against Cook Islands, while their one defeat was a heavy 54-12 blowout to the Kiwis.

It was a solid 2022 World Cup for the Kumuls as they advanced to the quarter-finals with wins over Cook Islands and Wales before going down 46-6 against England.

That's sort of been the ceiling for PNG lately - they still have a way to go before they can trouble the elite Rugby League nations, but with the Chiefs set to enter the NRL from 2028, this is an important World Cup to showcase their talent.

Lebanon Form

Lebanon are an underrated nation on the international stage.

The Cedars far from disgraced themselves at the 2017 World Cup, beating France and putting up decent fights against Australia (0-34) and England (10-29) before pushing Tonga all the way in a 22-24 defeat.

It was also an impressive 2022 World Cup as Lebanon beat Ireland and Jamaica, along with troubling New Zealand at stages during a 34-12 loss. They were ultimately eliminated 48-4 by the Kangaroos in the quarter-finals.

Team News

Big blow for PNG with Alex Johnston ruled out of the World Cup due to injury, but there's still plenty of NRL talent, including Jack de Belin, Robert Derby, and Zac Laybutt.

Lebanon are without Mitch Moses, who will line up for Australia, but still boast some star NRL players like Jacob Kiraz, Jordan Samrani and Tony Francis.

Verdict

Lebanon are tipped to cover a big +16.5 line, but PNG are favoured to prevail in a tight one at home.

Best Bet1: Lebanon +16.5 Line @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: PNG 1-12 Margin @13/5 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Jacob Kiraz Anytime Tryscorer @6/5 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Sylvester Namo Anytime Tryscorer @5/1 at Hollywoodbets - 1 Unit
Lebanon +16.5
Line
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PNG 1-12
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Jacob Kiraz
Anytime Tryscorer
@6/5 - 1 Unit
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Sylvester Namo
Anytime Tryscorer
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andrew-hendrie
Andrew Hendrie

Sports Editor • 20+ years betting experience

Andrew has been writing about sports for over a decade now after graduating with a double degree in 2013. In that time he has covered a wide range of sports, including NRL, AFL, Football (soccer), Tennis, NBA, NFL and more.


As a fan of Manchester City (since the 90s, he’s not a bandwagoner so they say), Canterbury Bulldogs and the Newcastle Jets, he’s experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows throughout the last few years.

You can find Andy at Muckrack and X.

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