Samoa vs France Tips & Preview - High-scoring game predicted at Rugby League World Cup
Samoa and France face off in rugby league with expectations of a high-scoring contest, reflecting their last World Cup meeting where Samoa won 62-4. Samoa leads the head-to-head 4-1 and is nearly at full strength, featuring key players like Stephen Crichton and Brian To'o. France arrives with wins over lesser teams but may struggle against Samoa’s power. The article recommends betting on the Game Total over 59.5 points, with Stephen Crichton as an anytime tryscorer and Brian To'o as first tryscorer.
- Samoa defeated France 62-4 at the last World Cup, with both teams consistently scoring points in their matchups.
- Samoa brings a nearly full-strength squad, while France has not recently faced tier-one opposition.
- Prediction: Expect over 59.5 points, with Stephen Crichton and Brian To'o highlighted in tryscorer markets.
Samoa vs France Verdict
Samoa won 62-4 the last time these nations met at a World Cup and the points should flow again. Take the Game Total over 59.5 and for Stephen Crichton and Brian To'o in the tryscorer markets.
- Samoa beat France 62-4 at the last World Cup, a Game Total of 66.
- France have scored in all five meetings with Samoa.
- Stephen Crichton returns to centre and runs at Test debutant Latrell Siegwalt.
- Brian To'o scored the opening try of the 2025 Pacific Championships final in the 11th minute.
Head to Head
Samoa lead the head-to-head 4-1 and have outscored France 188-58 across five Tests. France's only win was a 28-6 victory in 2006. Samoa have won the last three, 42-10 in 2008, 22-6 in 2013 and 62-4 at the 2022 World Cup in Warrington.
Only that 2022 win would have covered a 50.5-point line, but 2 of the 5 meetings cleared 59.5, with 66 points scored in both 1995 and 2022. France have managed at least 4 points in every meeting.
Samoa Form Analysis
Samoa came close to winning their first international title in 2025. They opened the Pacific Championships with a narrow loss to New Zealand in Auckland, then beat Tonga 34-6 to reach the final at CommBank Stadium, the same ground they play on Friday night.
The final summed up both their quality and their problem. Samoa led the Kiwis 14-6 at halftime after a Brian To'o try in the corner and an 80-metre intercept from Simi Sasagi, but they conceded 30 unanswered points in the second half and lost 36-14. Junior Paulo was immense in the middle with 12 runs for 96 metres.
This squad is close to full strength. Paulo and Luai are co-captains, and Paulo, Luai, To'o, Crichton and Spencer Leniu all played in the 2022 World Cup final. Leniu arrives off a dominant grand final performance for the Roosters.
Newcastle edge forwards Jermaine McEwen and Francis Manuleleua make their Test debuts a week after losing the NRL decider by a point. Paulo has also said Samoa will be a "safe haven" for Luai after a hard 2026 season at the Wests Tigers.
France Form
France come in with wins over smaller rugby league nations but have not played a tier-one opponent in a while.
They beat Morocco 34-10 in February 2025 and qualified for this tournament by beating Jamaica 36-0 in the Northern Hemisphere playoff in October 2025. A proposed warm-up Test against Australia was called off.
The spine has some quality. Arthur Mourgue won the Super League title with Hull KR, five-eighth Cesar Rouge scored 20 points against Wales in the 2024 qualifier in Perpignan, and Benjamin Garcia captains the side at his fourth World Cup.
The main new face is Latrell Siegwalt. The Wagga Wagga product debuted for South Sydney in Round 10, finished with 2 tries, 6 try assists and 28 goals from 39 attempts in eight games, and won the Rabbitohs' Rookie of the Year award. He qualifies for France through his paternal grandfather.
The concern for France is the gap in size and speed in the middle. Garcia called Samoa "big, strong and fast", and France's forward pack will need to hold up against Paulo, Leniu and Francis Molo for 80 minutes. That is where the points against usually start to pile up late in these games.
Verdict
Take the Game Total over 59.5. Stephen Crichton is the anytime tryscorer play and Brian To'o is the first tryscorer pick.
Over 59.5
Game Total
@10/11 - 3 Units
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Stephen Crichton
Anytime Tryscorer
@4/6 - 2 Units
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Brian To'o
First Tryscorer
@9/2 - 1 Unit
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Ryan is an Australian sports content writer, producing insights and analysis for NRL, AFL and Basketball. He is also our YouTube host and presenter, can be found on Bets.com.au and is also a co-founder of The Sport Cap and The Basketball Fix.
From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between.
Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.
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