Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Tips -Hungry Lions to maul brave Power
The Brisbane Lions are poised to continue their impressive six-match winning streak as they host Port Adelaide in AFL Round 20 at the GABBA. Brisbane enters as strong favorites, having dominated recent head-to-heads and displaying superior form, especially at home. Injuries are stretching Port Adelaide’s depth, and their defensive system appears to be wearing down. Expert analysis recommends backing the Lions to cover the handicap in a likely high-scoring contest, with Brisbane’s small and medium forwards tipped to make a big impact.
- Brisbane Lions are undefeated in their last six matches and dominant at home.
- Port Adelaide's defense is stretched by injuries and recent high-scoring concessions.
- Experts tip Brisbane to cover the line in a high-scoring contest at the GABBA.
Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Preview
- Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide Preview
- Head to Head
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Team News
- Port Adelaide Form Analysis
- Port Adelaide Team News
The dam-wall is set to bust for a brave Port Adelaide side when they travel to the GABBA to take on Brisbane in AFL Round 20.
Port Adelaide has been incredibly competitive for much of the season despite sitting 15th on the ladder. They have gone down in a number of close ones, while their percentage only just dipped below 100 last weekend after their 28-point loss to Fremantle.
Their defensive system must be respected, having conceded the third fewest amount of points this seasone but is showing signs of wearing down over the past fortnight as injuries take their toll.
St Kilda managed 87 points before Fremantle piled on 103 from 28 scoring shots, only the second time this season the Power has conceded triple figures. Against the reigning premiers on their home deck, the pressure only intensifies.
Brisbane should generate far too many scoring opportunities, making the Lions the play to cover the line, while another high-scoring contest appeals with the total points to go over.
Their ball movement shapes as the biggest difference in the Round 20 fixture. Look for the back to back premiers to control possession before patiently opening up the corridor. Even when they don't dominate clearances, they create enormous numbers of inside 50s through uncontested possession and territory and come off a six-week unbeaten streak where they are averaging 119 points per game.
Expect Port's key defenders to compete strongly against Brisbane's tall forwards but the concern here is when the ball hits the ground with Brisbane's fleet of dangerous small and medium forwards.
Kai Lohmann comes in with career-best form, while Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey have troubled the Power in the past with their speed and creativity around loose balls.
That also points towards the total points going over with the Lions posting some huge scores at the venue this season. Take the Lions to cover. Take your pick of Lohmann, Cameron and Bailey for goal props with Bailey the one that might be the value out of that trio. Lachie Neale will find a stack of the footy once again.
- The total match points in Brisbane's eight matches at the GABBA this season has averaged 198.
- The Lions have won their past six and are averaging 119 points per game in that period.
- Zac Bailey kicked five goals in his most recent match against Port.
- Lachie Neale has averaged 36 disposals in the past two rounds and 33 in his past two matches against the Power.
Head to Head
Brisbane have won the past three between the two sides and took out the most recent meeting by 28 points at the GABBA last season. The Lions have won the past six at the venue against the Power by an average of 31 points.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Zac Bailey (Lions)- 26 disposals in each of his past two matches against the Power and five goals in the most recent head to head.
- Charlie Cameron (Lions)- 2+ goals in each of his past three matches against the Power.
- Lachie Neale (Lions)- averaging 33 disposals from his past two matches against Port.
- Mitch Georgiades (Power)- seven goals from his past two matches against the Lions, kicking 3+ in both of those.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Brisbane enters Round 20 sitting firmly in the race for a top-two finish after recovering from a mid-season slump to win six consecutive matches. The Lions strengthened their credentials last weekend with a 24-point win over West Coast in Perth, overcoming an early 21-point deficit before taking control through the second half to continue their impressive run.
Although they were beaten at the clearances after half-time, Brisbane's class around the ground again shone through. The Lions generated repeat scoring opportunities through their uncontested marking game, finished with 48 more marks than the Eagles and dominated the contested marking battle 15-3. Harris Andrews was outstanding behind the ball with seven intercept marks and 10 intercept possessions, while Brisbane continued to maximise its opportunities inside 50.
Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft both collected 32 disposals in Perth, with Ashcroft extending his streak to five consecutive matches of 30 or more disposals. Kai Lohmann continued his outstanding form with four goals and has now booted 12 across his past three matches, while Charlie Cameron added another two goals as Brisbane's dangerous small forwards again made the most of their opportunities.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane escaped last week's win over West Coast without any fresh injuries. Dayne Zorko experienced some hamstring awareness during the match and was managed late, while Hugh McCluggage continues to build his match fitness after returning from a calf injury. Oscar Allen, Lincoln McCarthy and Kaedean Coleman are pushing for selection and have returned from injury via through the VFL, giving the Lions further selection headaches ahead of Round 20.
Port Adelaide Form Analysis
Port Adelaide sits 15th on the ladder with a 6-12 record but has consistently been more competitive than that position suggests. The Power produced another spirited performance last weekend, leading top-placed Fremantle at half-time before eventually going down by 28 points. They have also been competitive despite a lengthy injury list and remain a difficult side to put away.
The Power's younger players continue to provide encouraging signs. Mitch Zadow kicked four goals in just his fourth AFL match, while Joe Richards produced a game-high 31 disposals in an impressive midfield display. Port also dominated centre clearances in the first half against Fremantle before the Dockers' class eventually prevailed after the main break.
Port has won only two of seven matches outside South Australia this season, with those victories coming against Richmond and West Coast. The challenge becomes significantly tougher against a Brisbane side in red-hot form and unbeaten at home in recent weeks.
Port Adelaide Team News
The availability of several key players will have a major bearing on this contest. Jason Horne-Francis returns from suspension, while Mitch Georgiades must complete concussion protocols before being cleared to return. Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Esava Ratugolea are among some big names that are done for the season. Those injuries have stretched Port's depth in recent weeks and could prove pivotal against one of the competition's deepest midfields.
Verdict
Lions to cover with the total match points to go over. Bailey and Neale best in player prop markets.
Brisbane -38.8
Line
@7/8 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS
Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.
Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
Top Betting Sites
Betting offers
Upcoming Events
08 May 2026
- WNBA 2026 -
- Basketball
10 June 2026
- Volleyball Nations League 2026 -
- Volleyball
09 July 2026
- VCT 2026 China Stage 2 -
- Esports
Load More
Sports Tips Starts in
Today's Acca Tips
-
Soccer tips
-
Horse Racing tips
-
Tennis tips
