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Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood AFL Betting Tips - Crows to win a Round 20 thriller

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Tue 21 Jul 2026 08:15

Adam Cusworth 21 Jul 2026

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Adelaide Crows are in the top four after 9 in 11 games
Collingwood are on a five-game streak
Prediction: Crows edge a close, low-scoring match

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Collingwood Magpies and Adelaide Crows clash for the second time this year (Getty Images)

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Verdict
Head to Head
Adelaide Crows Form - Top Four Crows
Collingwood Form - Pies Heating Up
Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Team News

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Verdict

A thriller is in store as Adelaide Crows and Collingwood go head to head in Thursday night footy. Home advantage could be the difference with the Crows backed to edge to victory at the Adelaide Oval - but only just.

The total points in Collingwood's past three matches at the Adelaide Oval has averaged just 111.
Adelaide have conceded an average of just 69 points per game in their past 11 matches.
Josh Worrell has had 25+ disposals in his past three matches against Collingwood.
The past eight matches between the two sides have been decided by 24 points or less.

Head to Head

Adelaide have won two of the past three between the two sides but Collingwood won at the Adelaide Oval last year when it mattered, taking out the Qualifying Final by 24 points.

The past eight matches have been decided by 24 points or less with six of those decided by less than a goal.

Adelaide Crows Form - Top Four Crows

Adelaide heads into Round 20 sitting firmly inside the top four after winning nine of its past 11 matches, including six of the past seven.

The Crows made arguably their biggest statement of the season last Friday night, becoming the first side to defeat Sydney at the SCG this year with a 16-point victory.

It was another reminder that Adelaide's pressure, clearance work and defensive intensity stand up against the competition's best.

The Crows' pressure game was outstanding against the Swans, winning the clearance count 51-38 while laying 19 tackles inside 50 to repeatedly force turnovers.

Their ability to control territory has become a trademark and is a major reason they have conceded just 69 points per game across their past 11 matches.

Izak Rankine starred with 30 disposals and a goal against Sydney and has now produced 25+ disposals and a goal in each of his past three matches.

Darcy Fogarty continued his brilliant run with four goals and has kicked 17 goals across his past five matches, hitting two or more in each of those games.

Collingwood Form - Pies Heating Up

Collingwood heads into this clash on a five-match winning streak and remains firmly in the finals hunt after defeating Carlton by 21 points in Round 19.

The Magpies have rediscovered their trademark pressure and contest work during that stretch, making them one of the more dangerous sides in the competition over the past month.

Their win over Carlton was built on relentless defensive pressure, winning the contested possession count by 13, the tackle count by 24 and producing 46 points from defensive-half transition.

That ball movement has become a major weapon, but Adelaide's pressure around the contest shapes as a much sterner test than the Magpies have faced during their winning run.

Nick Daicos again starred with 36 disposals and has now collected 35 or more in six of his past eight matches.

Despite their recent surge, Collingwood is yet to defeat a current top-six side this season and has won just one of its three interstate matches in 2026, making this one of its toughest assignments of the year.

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Team News

Adelaide escaped its win over Sydney without any fresh injury concerns. Taylor Walker was managed as part of his workload and is expected to return, while Rory Laird remains the key injury watch after suffering an ankle injury in Round 18.

The Magpies came through their win over Carlton without any fresh injury concerns. Josh Daicos finished the match despite rolling an ankle early and is expected to be available, while Collingwood will continue monitoring the fitness of Jeremy Howe.

Verdict

Collingwood v Adelaide

Crows to win a close one with total to go under. Also consider Worrell in the disposals markets.

Adelaide Crows 1-39

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One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.