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Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers AFL Betting Tips - Bulldogs to edge to victory in Round 20

adam-cusworth
Adam Cusworth
Editor
Last updated: Thu 23 Jul 2026 21:04
The Western Bulldogs enter their clash with the Richmond Tigers in solid form, having won six of their past eight, though all recent victories have come by 16 points or fewer. Key players like Marcus Bontempelli and Ryley Sanders are expected to perform strongly, with Bontempelli enjoying a dominant history vs Richmond. The Tigers, despite a tough season and multiple changes, have shown fight and are predicted to keep the game closer than the line suggests. Top player props include Bontempelli and Sanders (disposals) and Taranto for the Tigers.
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Adam Cusworth 23 Jul 2026
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  • Bulldogs tipped for victory, but Tigers likely to be competitive.
  • Bontempelli, Sanders & Taranto are expected to star in player props.
  • Richmond faces injuries but has shown late-game fight.
western bulldogs
Western Bulldogs (Getty Images)

Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers Verdict


The Western Bulldogs are back for the victory but Richmond Tigers can be more competitive than the line suggests. Expect Marcus Bontempelli and Ryley Sanders to be heavily involved around the football, while Tim Taranto can continue his string of 25+ games for the Tigers. 

  • The Bulldogs' highest winning margin in their past seven wins has been just 22 points.
  • Marcus Bontempelli has had 30+ disposals in his last six matches against Richmond.
  • Ryley Sanders is averaging 25 disposals this season.
  • Tim Taranto has had 25+ disposals in each of his past six matches against the Bulldogs.

Head to Head Stats


The Bulldogs have won the past four between the two sides and have won the past six at Marvel Stadium. The past three have gone the way of the Dogs by 55 points or more.

Western Bulldogs Form


The Bulldogs have produced an up-and-down campaign but remain firmly in the finals mix, sitting seventh on the ladder with an 11-7 win-loss record. 

They have now won six of their past eight matches and come off a hard-fought nine-point victory over Gold Coast. 

Interestingly, all six of those wins have been by 16 points or less, highlighting a shift away from the big-margin victories that were once commonplace.

Last week, Marcus Bontempelli again proved the difference, kicking three goals from 23 disposals in the low-scoring win. 

Bailey Williams continued his outstanding season with 29 disposals across half-back, while Matt Kennedy played a crucial role inside forward 50 with three goals.

Richmond Tigers Form


Richmond has endured a difficult season, winning just two matches - against West Coast in Round 8 and Essendon in Round 11 - and enters Round 20 having lost seven consecutive games. 

Last week they were beaten by 70 points by Hawthorn, although the final margin didn't fully reflect their competitiveness after half-time, with the Tigers winning the final quarter and showing encouraging fight late in the contest.

Despite winning the clearances 35-29 against the Hawks, Richmond managed just 1.6 (12) from stoppages, while Hawthorn converted the same source into 6.6 (42), including 3.0 (18) directly from centre clearances. 

The Hawks also dominated possession, finishing +102 in disposals, +101 in uncontested possessions, +39 in uncontested marks and +62 in handball receives.

Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Team News


The Bulldogs receive a significant boost with Tom Liberatore returning to the side after missing last week's win. Luke McNeil is the only player to make way as Luke Beveridge sticks with a settled lineup.

The Tigers have been forced into four changes after injuries to Noah Balta and Steely Green. James Ross, Luke Trainor, Tyler Sonsie and Zac Peucker all come into the side, while James Trezise and Kane McAuliffe have been omitted.

Verdict

Take the Tigers to stay under the line with Bontempelli, Sanders and Taranto the best for player props.
Best Bet1: Richmond +40.5 Line @8/9 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Marcus Bontempelli 30+ Player Disposals @1/1 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Tim Taranto 25+ Player Disposals @7/12 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Ryley Sanders 25+ Player Disposals @7/10 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Richmond +40.5
Line
@8/9 - 1 Unit
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Marcus Bontempelli 30+
Player Disposals
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Bet at bet365
Tim Taranto 25+
Player Disposals
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Bet at Star Sports
Ryley Sanders 25+
Player Disposals
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adam-cusworth
Adam Cusworth

Sports Editor • 20+ years betting experience

One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

 
Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.

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