Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons Tips - Melbourne to end run of close losses against Carlton
In a much-anticipated AFL clash at the MCG, the Melbourne Demons are predicted to secure a decisive win over the Carlton Blues. Both teams enter with a 1-1 record, but Melbourne's superior scoring profile gives them an edge. Key players Max Gawn and Kozzie Pickett are expected to be influential, with Pickett poised for multiple goals. Carlton, led by midfielders Sam Walsh and Patrick Cripps, faces challenges in scoring, especially with the absence of Charlie Curnow. The Demons’ improved execution and strong midfield could separate the sides in this encounter.
- Melbourne Demons favored to win over Carlton Blues at MCG.
- Kozzie Pickett and Max Gawn key to Melbourne's strategy.
- Carlton's scoring issues persist without Charlie Curnow.
Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons Preview
Melbourne will break the recent run of losing close matches to Carlton with a decisive win when they meet at the MCG on Sunday.
Both sides sit at 1-1 after two rounds, with the Blues grinding out a four-point win over Richmond and Melbourne coming off a 48-point loss to Fremantle.
The matchup shapes as a clash between Carlton’s contest-driven style and Melbourne’s stronger scoring profile, which gives the Demons the edge.
Carlton’s path to winning is built around contest and territory dominance, but their ability to sustain this across four quarters will be critical. Sam Walsh, Patrick Cripps and Jagga Smith give them strong midfield drive, however their forward structure remains a concern without Charlie Curnow.
Melbourne’s ability to generate scoreboard pressure and control the game through their midfield gives them a clear advantage. They are averaging 95 points per game and have multiple scoring options, with Kozzie Pickett a proven threat after kicking five goals the last time these sides met.
Max Gawn shapes as a key influence again, having recorded 20+ disposals in both matches this season, and if Melbourne can avoid another slow start, their scoring power should separate the two sides.
Look for Melbourne to cover the small line in a game where the total points under is also in play. Kozzie Pickett is a strong play for 2+ goals, while Max Gawn should again have plenty of influence in the ruck.
- Carlton are averaging just 62 points in their two matches this season.
- Melbourne are averaging 95 points per game
- Kozzie Pickett kicked five goals the last time the two sides met
- Max Gawn has had over 20 disposals in both his matches this season
Head to Head
Carlton have won their past four matches against Melbourne by an average margin of under four points, with six of the past eight meetings decided by eight points or less. Their most recent clash in Round 19 last season saw the Blues win by four points in another tight finish.
Kozzie Pickett starred in that game with five goals for Melbourne, while Patrick Cripps collected 29 disposals for Carlton. Sam Walsh also found plenty of the ball, recording 30+ disposals, while Changkuoth Jiath has had 47 disposals across his past two matches against the Blues.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Carlton are 1-1 to start the 2026 season, opening with a heavy 63-point loss to Sydney before bouncing back with a narrow 4-point win over Richmond. Despite the win, they were outplayed territorially, conceding 60 inside 50s to 44 and relying on resilience to hold on late.
Their game style is built around contest and territory, with a strong focus on clearance and physical pressure. This was evident against Richmond, where they won clearances 37-29. Walsh has been central with back-to-back 30+ disposal performances, while Jagga Smith has provided immediate impact with 27 and 32 disposals in his first two matches.
However, their key issues remain scoring and consistency. Carlton have managed just 69 and 75 points in their two matches, highlighting a lack of forward connection. Turnovers in defensive areas remain a major concern, conceding 30 back-half turnovers in their last match, and their inability to sustain performance across four quarters continues to expose them.
Carlton Blues Team News
Charlie Curnow’s departure has left a significant gap in their forward structure. There are no major new injuries from their last match, but their scoring setup remains under pressure.
The Blues are unlikely to make major structural changes, with Walsh, Cripps and Smith continuing to lead the midfield. Any adjustments are likely to come in the forward half as they search for improved connection and scoring output.
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Melbourne are also 1-1 to begin the season, opening with a 13-point win over St Kilda before suffering a 48-point loss to Fremantle. That defeat was effectively decided early, with the Demons conceding a 42-point quarter-time deficit.
Their intended style is contest and territory-based, but execution has been inconsistent. They have been able to generate inside 50 opportunities, supported by Max Gawn’s influence around the ground with 20+ disposals in both matches, while Kozzie Pickett remains a key forward threat. Their scoring output has been strong overall, averaging 95 points per game.
The key weaknesses are skill execution and early-game performance. Melbourne have struggled with turnovers and inefficiency going inside 50, while their inability to handle pressure cost them early against the Dockers, allowing their opponent to control the game. Their system under new coach Steven King is still developing, with cohesion and connection inside 50 areas still a work in progress.
Melbourne Demons Team News
Melbourne will monitor the fitness of Daniel Turner after he suffered a hand injury against Fremantle and remains in doubt. His absence would place added pressure on defenders Blake Howes and Changkuoth Jiath.
Otherwise, Melbourne are expected to go in with a similar lineup, with a focus on improving defensive structure and early-game intensity following last week’s slow start.
Verdict
Melbourne in the head to head, with Kozzie Pickett 2+ goals and Max Gawn 20+ disposals in a lower-scoring contest.
Melbourne
Match Winner
@9/11 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS
Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.
Under
Total Points O/U 173.5
@7/8 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS
Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad
Max Gawn 20+
Player Dispsoals
@11/23 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS
18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org
Kysaiah Pickett 2+
Anytime Goalscorers
@7/9 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS
Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.
Top Betting Sites
Betting offers
Upcoming Events
28 March 2026
- LEC 2026 Spring -
- Esports
04 April 2026
15 May 2026
- Ice Hockey World Championship 2026 -
- Ice Hockey
Load More
Carlton Blues v Melbourne Demons
Today's Acca Tips
-
Soccer tips
-
Horse Racing tips
-
Tennis tips
