Carlton vs Hawthorn Tips - Carlton’s bubble to burst against rebounding Hawks
Carlton’s resurgence under caretaker coach Josh Fraser faces a crucial test against Hawthorn at the MCG. Though the Blues are riding a seven-game winning streak, history and head-to-head statistics favour the Hawks, who are tipped to bounce back after a disappointing loss last week. Hawthorn’s strong transition game and forward line, led by Jack Gunston, are expected to challenge Carlton’s midfield dominance. With key players set to return for Hawthorn and Carlton missing Lewis Young, the Hawks are predicted to win by 1-39 points.
- Hawthorn predicted to end Carlton’s 7-game winning streak.
- Blues missing key defender Lewis Young; Hawks regain multiple stars.
- History and key stats overwhelmingly favour Hawthorn in a close contest.
Carlton vs Hawthorn Preview
- Carlton vs Hawthorn Preview
- Head to Head
- Carlton Form Analysis
- Carlton Team News
- Hawthorn Form Analysis
- Hawthorn Team News
Carlton's remarkable resurgence is set to hit a roadblock when the Blues meet Hawthorn at the MCG on Saturday evening.
The Blues have been one of the AFL's hottest teams over the past two months, but this shapes as the week their winning streak comes to an end against a Hawthorn side that should be highly motivated after a disappointing performance last weekend. Expect the Hawks to bounce back and prevail in the 1-39 point bracket.
This promises to be a fascinating battle between two sides that have built their success in very different ways. Carlton have rediscovered their confidence through improved ball movement, greater composure with possession and a midfield that has regained its dominance.
Hawthorn, meanwhile, remain one of the competition's most dangerous transition teams, capable of punishing turnovers with their pace and efficiency going inside 50. If the Hawks can apply pressure high up the ground, they have the weapons to expose Carlton on the rebound.
The midfield contest looms as one of the highlights of the round. Patrick Cripps continues to drive Carlton with his contested work and ability to win clearances, while Hawthorn boast an strong on-ball brigade led by Jai Newcombe and Will Day. Both sides are capable of generating repeat inside 50s through their midfield, making first possession and territory critical throughout the afternoon.
Inside attack, Hawthorn appear to hold the advantage. Jack Gunston has enjoyed tremendous success against Carlton throughout his career and continues to provide elite leadership inside 50, while Mabior Chol gives the Hawks another aerial threats.
History strongly favours the brown and gold. Hawthorn have dominated this fixture for more than a decade and possess the experience, midfield depth and forward firepower to halt Carlton's charge. Take Gunston for multiple goals, while Cripps looks set for another big game for the Blues.
- Hawthorn have won 20 of the past 24 matches between the two sides.
- 14 of Carlton's 16 matches have been decided by 1-39 points in 2026.
- Patrick Cripps has had 25 or more disposals in nine of his last 10 matches against the Hawks.
- Jack Gunston has kicked 2+ goals in his past six matches against the Blues.
Head to Head
Hawthorn have won the past three between the two sides and 20 of the past 24.
Standout player performances in the recent head-to-heads have come from;
- Dylan Moore (Hawks) – 25+ disposals in two of his past three against the Blues
- Patrick Cripps (Blues) – 25+ disposals in nine of his past 10 against Hawthorn
- Calsher Dear (Hawks) – five goals in two outings against Carlton
- Jack Gunston (Hawks) – 2+ goals in each of his past six against the Blues for a total of 15
Carlton Form Analysis
It has been a stunning turnaround by Carlton since the club parted ways with Michael Voss. The Blues have won seven straight matches under caretaker coach Josh Fraser and have climbed into the top 10 after sitting 1-8 earlier in the season. They now hold an 8-8 win-loss record and have thrust themselves firmly into the finals conversation.
They survived a major scare against 17th-placed Richmond last weekend, hanging on for a two-point victory to extend their winning streak. While they were far from their best, the Blues again found a way to win, continuing a trend that has become a feature of their resurgence.
The club's senior players have driven the remarkable turnaround, led by Patrick Cripps. The two-time Brownlow Medallist has recorded 30 or more disposals in five of his past eight matches and finished with 29 in another. Jagga Smith collected a game-high 29 disposals against Richmond and has now recorded 25+ in six of his past eight matches, while George Hewett gathered 26 disposals and two goals last weekend and has reached 25+ disposals in each of his past four outings.
Fourteen of Carlton's 16 matches this season have been decided by margins of 1-39 points, highlighting both their competitiveness and their reliance on winning tight contests. This shapes as another game likely to go deep into the final quarter.
Carlton Team News
Lewis Young entered concussion protocols after last week's victory over Richmond and is expected to miss this week's clash. His absence will test Carlton's key defensive stocks against Hawthorn's tall forward line.
Harry Dean is expected to be available after overcoming a minor facial injury, while the Blues otherwise escaped without any significant fresh injury concerns.
Hawthorn Form Analysis
Hawthorn sit third on the ladder with a 10-5-1 record despite suffering a disappointing 35-point loss to Melbourne last weekend. The Hawks trailed by as many as 96 points before producing an incredible run of 12 consecutive goals to briefly threaten one of the greatest comebacks in AFL history.
The biggest concern for Hawthorn was their work around the contest. They were comprehensively beaten in both clearances and contested possessions during the opening half after making significant improvements in those areas following the bye, improvements that helped drive victories over Gold Coast and GWS. Expect a far stronger response around the stoppages this week.
Jai Newcombe continued his excellent form with 27 disposals and has now recorded 30 or more in two of his past three matches. Mabior Chol produced one of his best performances of the season with five goals after a quiet first half, while the Hawks return to the MCG where they hold a solid 4-2-1 record in 2026.
Despite last week's defeat, Hawthorn remain one of the AFL's most balanced sides and have consistently responded well following losses. Their ability to generate scores from turnover and punish opposition mistakes makes them a dangerous matchup for Carlton.
Hawthorn Team News
Hawthorn escaped last week's loss without any fresh injuries and are expected to regain several important players. The Hawks could welcome back a number of their best 22 players this week, including Nick Watson, Jarman Impey, Josh Battle, Karl Amon and Ned Reeves.
Verdict
Hawks to bounce back with Gunston finding form after recent injury layoff. Cripps again rock solid for Carlton
Hawthorn -13.5
Line
@9/10 - 1 Unit
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