Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Tips - Big number in store for mids with Lions to roar past Bombers
The Brisbane Lions are positioned as strong favorites against the Essendon Bombers, entering with a 4-3 record compared to Essendon’s 1-6. Look for significant play from Brisbane's Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft, who have both been high-performing in disposals. The Lions dominate in controlling play, benefiting from Zac Bailey’s forward impact. Essendon's strengths include Archie Roberts’ and Zach Merrett’s disposals, but their defensive frailties are concerning. Overall, expect a high-disposal, open-play game favoring Brisbane.
- Brisbane favored to win against Essendon, coming off a strong recent form.
- Key players like Lachie Neale and Will Ashcroft expected to dominate in disposals.
- Essendon's defensive issues could be exploited by Brisbane's effective ball control.
Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Preview
- Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Preview
- Head to Head
- Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
- Essendon Bombers Team News
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane will be too good for Essendon in a match that shapes as a player prop goldmine with both midfields primed to rack up big numbers.
The Lions head in as strong favourites and come in with a 4-3 win-loss record, while Essendon are 1-6. They will be too strong in what will be an uncontested style of game at Marvel Stadium where the line has been set at 40.5 points.
Expect Lachie Neale to find a stack of the footy. The Brownlow Medalist comes off 42 disposals last week and has now hit 30+ in three straight matches. In this type of matchup, where the ball is likely to be chipped around and controlled, he looks set for another high-volume outing.
Alongside him, Will Ashcroft is emerging as a genuine accumulator. He had 36 disposals in the same match and has consistently found the footy, including strong returns against Essendon previously. With Brisbane happy to control possession and link up through the corridor and wings, both he and Neale should thrive.
There are numbers on the Essendon side as well. Archie Roberts is averaging massive disposal counts and Zach Merrett continues to find plenty of the ball, but the concern is how easily opposition midfields are able to dominate phases of play against them.
That feeds into the overall game script. Brisbane’s ball movement and ability to generate uncontested marks should see them control territory and scoreboard pressure.
Up forward, Zac Bailey looms as a key difference-maker. He was outstanding last week with three goals and strong midfield impact, and in a game where Brisbane are likely to generate repeated inside 50 entries, he is well placed to hit the scoreboard multiple times again.
Put it all together and this is a game that screams high disposals, open play and scoring opportunities — perfect conditions for stacking player props across Brisbane’s midfield and forward group.
- Will Ashcroft had 36 disposals last weekend and has had 30 in each of his past two outings against Essendon.
- Lachie Neale has had 30+ disposals in his past three matches, coming off 42 last weekend.
- Zac Bailey kicked three goals last weekend against Adelaide and had 29 disposals
- Zach Merrett has had 30+ disposals in three of his past four matches.
Head to Head
Brisbane have won the past three between the two sides, which have all been played at the GABBA. It was an 18 point win in the Round 12 clash last season with Hugh McCluggage racking up 41 disposals, while Kai Lohmann booted three goals. The Lions have won the past three against Essendon at Marvel Stadium with the most recent of those coming in 2022.
Standout player performance in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Will Ashcroft (Lions)- 30 disposals in his last two against Essendon
- Darcy Parish (Dons)- 25+ in his past three against the Lions
- Kai Lohmann (Lions)- 3+ in his past two against the Bombers
- Peter Wright (Dons)- 10 goals in his past three against the Lions
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Essendon showed signs of improvement with a 45-point win over Melbourne in Gather Round and a strong performance against Gold Coast when going down by just nine points but were disappointing in the ANZAC Day clash when going down to Collingwood by 77. They were smashed in the disposals count (365-458) leading to a major discrepancy with inside 50s (34-62).
Archie Roberts found plenty of the footy with 42 disposals and is averaging 38.5 over the past four rounds. Zach Merrett is averaging 26 disposals and has had 30+ in three of his past four.
A concern for Essendon is their leaky backline and they have conceeded an average of 112 points per game in 2026. There were some promising signs up forward with two 100+ point scores but their forwards were starved against the Magpies. Nate Caddy did well to kick 3.3 from limited opportunities, while Kyle Langford booted two goals. Caddy has kicked 12 goals from six matches in 2026.
Essendon Bombers Team News
Archie May copped a knee injury in the loss to Collingwood and will be assessed during the week. The Bombers still have a number of players on the injury list, including Mason Redman and Jordan Ridley, while Nik Cox an Archie Perkins have some solid VFL form.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
After a slow and injury-affected start to the season that saw them lose their first two matches, the Lions have since won four of their past five and sit 5th on the ladder with a 4-3 win-loss record.
They were dominant against Adelaide last weekend at the GABBA, handing the Crows a 52-point defeat and a highlight was their multiple avenues to goal with 11 individual goalkickers.
Charlie Cameron kicked four goals in the win, while Zac Bailey snagged three from 29 disposals in what was a best on ground effort. Lachie Neale picked up a game-high 42 disposals, while Will Ashcroft had 36. Neale has had 30+ disposals in his past three matches, while Ashcroft has reached that mark in three of his past five.
The Lions head to Marvel Stadium for the second time this season after a 33 point win over St Kilda in Round 3. They have won seven of their past eight at the venue.
Brisbane Lions Team News
Their were no injuries for Brisbane to come out of the match against Adelaide. Dane Zorko is likely to need another week in his return from a calf injury. Reece Torrent, Darragh Joyce and Tom Doedee have some solid VFL form and are pressing for selection.
Verdict
Player disposal props the go here as mids from both sides set to post big numbers
Will Ashcroft
To Have 30+ disposals
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Lachie Neale
To Have 30+ disposals
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Zach Merrett
To Have 30+ disposals
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Zac Bailey
To Score 2+ goals
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