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Adelaide Crows vs Port Adelaide Power AFL Betting Tips - Power value for upset win in The Showdown?

adam-cusworth
Editor
Last updated: Fri 01 May 2026 09:03
Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide Power, both holding 3-4 records, collide in a tightly anticipated Showdown. Port Adelaide have the momentum after a strong win against Geelong and are tipped as value picks, especially with a +12.5 handicap. Adelaide have recent head-to-head dominance but were heavily beaten last week. Key players like Zak Butters and Izak Rankine are expected to impact the game. With both teams battling injuries, Port's recent form gives them an edge—taking the +12.5 handicap is the recommended bet.
Adam Cusworth 01 May 2026
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  • Both teams enter with 3-4 records, but Port have stronger recent form
  • Adelaide dominated previous head-to-heads, but suffered a big loss last week
  • Port Adelaide +12.5 handicap is recommended as the best bet for this Showdown
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zak butters
Zak Butters to star for the Power (Getty Images)

Adelaide Crows vs Port Adelaide Power Preview


The cross-town rivals have identical 3-4 records after seven rounds but Port will be high on confidence after taking down the Cats last week. They are value to get the better of the Crows in the last Showdown, particularly with a 12.5 start. 

  • Port Adelaide have conceded just 70 points per game over the past four rounds.
  • The Power come off a 30 point win over last year’s Grand Finalists, Geelong, and registered 30 scoring shots to 15. 
  • Zak Butters has had 30+ disposals in his past five matches against Adelaide
  • Izak Rankine has kicked 15 goals from his past five matches against the Power

Head to Head Stats


Adelaide have won five of the past six matches between the two sides and took out a close edition of the Showdown in Round 9 last season by five points, before crushing the Power by 98 in Round 20. 

Adelaide Crows Form - Heavy Defeat Last Week


Adelaide sit with a win-loss record of 3-4 and come off a 52-point loss to the Brisbane Lions last weekend. They seem to be well off their 2025 form that saw them end the home and away season with an 18-5 win-loss record. 

Adelaide’s game style remains built around defence and efficiency rather than volume. They rank lower for disposals and inside 50s, but their ability to stay in games through structure and execution has kept margins tight throughout the season. 

Their biggest losing margin was just eight points prior to the blowout against the Lions, while their three victories have been by an average margin of 14. 

Port Adelaide Power Form - Power Upset The Cats


Port Adelaide sit 3-4 and look to be on a promising trajectory with the last forntight nearly seeing them pull off a big upset when going down by three points to Hawthorn before knocking over Geelong by 30 last weekend. 

They completely controlled Geelong in a number of key statistical measures, including clearances (46-28) and inside 50s (58-35) and probably should have won by more were it not for some inaccuracy in front of goal in the 13.17.95 to 10.5.65 scoreline. 

Zak Butters was able to shake off the tag that Geelong placed on him with 30, while Jason Horne-Francis starred with 34 disposals and a goal. Horne Francis has had a run of three weeks with 25+ disposals and has kicked seven goals in his last four matches. 

Adelaide Crows Team News


There were no injuries to come out of the Brisbane loss. Dan Curtin returns for his first game of 2026, while Jordan Dawson misses again for personal reasons.

Port Adelaide Power Team News


Port Adelaide remain without Connor Rozee for an extended period but got through last weekend’s match without any fresh injuries. 

Todd Marshall was a late withdrawal due to illness and is expected to be available, while Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Will Lorenz and Jackson Mead are among a number with some strong SANFL form that are pushing to be promoted into the lineup. 

Verdict

Power to push the Crows all the way. They could win but take the +12.5 start as a best bet.

Best Bet1: Port Adelaide +12.5 Handicap -12.5 @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Zak Butters To Have 30+ disposals @1/2 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Izak Rankine To Score 2+ goals @6/5 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Under 177.5 Total Points @7/8 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Port Adelaide +12.5
Handicap -12.5
@9/10 - 2 Units
£30 Free Bet
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Zak Butters
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Izak Rankine
To Score 2+ goals
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Bet at Star Sports
Under 177.5
Total Points
@7/8 - 2 Units
£30 Free Bet
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Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

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