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Geelong Cats vs North Melbourne Kangaroos AFL Betting Tips - Cats to bounce back with a big win

adam-cusworth
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Last updated: Fri 01 May 2026 09:57
Geelong Cats are tipped to rebound in their home AFL clash against North Melbourne Kangaroos after a disappointing loss last week. Historically, Geelong have dominated North, winning their last 14 meetings by large margins. With star players Jeremy Cameron and Bailey Smith in form and returning to the lineup, expect the Cats to leverage their GMHBA Stadium advantage. North Melbourne are showing improvement this season, but the Cats’ depth and track record point to a comprehensive Geelong victory. Key player props: Cameron for 3+ goals and Smith for 35+ disposals.
Adam Cusworth 01 May 2026
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  • Geelong tipped to dominate North Melbourne at home.
  • Jeremy Cameron and Bailey Smith expected to star.
  • Cats have won 14 straight vs Roos, avg. margin 49 points.
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jeremy cameron
Jeremy Cameron to have a big night (Getty Images)

Geelong Cats vs North Melbourne Kangaroos Preview


Geelong can bounce back from last week by recording a wide-margin win over North Melbourne at home. Jeremy Cameron and Bailey Smith are back for a big day at GMHBA Stadium. 

Head to Head Stats


This reads ugly for North Melbourne with Geelong winning the past 14 matches between the two sides by an average margin of 49 points. The past three at GMHBA Stadium have been by an average of 83. 

Geelong Cats Form - Cats Lose Power Last Week


Geelong come in with a 4-3 record and have handled a tough early draw well but will be rueing their performance against Port Adelaide last weekend when going down by 30 points.

They were completely outplayed in a number of key statistical measures, including clearances (46-28) and inside 50s (58-35) and probably should have lost by more were it not for some inaccuracy in front of goal from the Power in the 13.17.95 to 10.5.65 scoreline. 

Jeremy Cameron booted three goals to follow his 10 from a fortnight ago againt the Western Bulldogs. After a slow start that followed an interrupted pre-season, he has now booted 16 in his past three matches. 

Bailey Smith had 30 disposals to extend his streak of 30+ games to six, while Max Holmes had 25 and has hit 25+ in every game this season.

North Melbourne Kangaroos Form - A Decade In The Making


North Melbourne have made their best start to a season since 2016 and sit at 4-3 but dropped their Round 7 match to the GWS Giants by seven. They have played just two finalists from 2025, with the other resulting in a 25-point loss to Brisbane. 

The Kangaroos’ improvement in 2026 has been driven by their pressure and stoppage work, while they have a strong clearance game and led the Giants 17-9 in centre clearances last weekend. Tristan Xerri returned from suspension with 25 disposals and 25 hitouts, feeding the likes of Harr Sheezel (32 disposals). 

Harry Sheezel has now hit 30+ in nine of his past nine matches. Nick Larkey booted four goals in the loss to the Giants, while Paul Curtis snagged two to back up his six-goal haul against Richmond a week prior. 

Geelong Cats Team News


Sam De Koning and Jake Kolodjashnij return, with Mark Blicavs injured and Jack Bowes managed.

North Melbourne Kangaroos Team News


Charlie Comben returns, replacing omitted defender Toby Pink.

Verdict

Cats are backed to bounce back with Cameron and Smith in for a big game.
Best Bet1: Geelong -27.5 Pick Your Own Line @9/10 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Jeremy Cameron To Score 3+ goals @8/15 at bet365 - 4 Units
Best Bet3: Bailey Smith To Have 35+ disposals @13/10 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Geelong -27.5
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@9/10 - 2 Units
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Bailey Smith
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