Hawthorn vs Essendon Tips - Bombers joy short lived as Hawks take a hold at the MCG
Hawthorn is favored to claim a decisive victory over Essendon and strengthen its top-two finish hopes at the MCG. The Hawks' superior uncontested possession game and diverse attack present major problems for the Bombers, who have struggled defensively, particularly against elite sides. Essendon's marginal improvement was on display in their last match, but key injuries and ongoing defensive flaws remain concerns. Standout player bets include Connor MacDonald, Nick Watson, and Zach Merrett. Expect Hawthorn to cover the point spread and maintain momentum heading into finals.
- Hawthorn favored to win big and cover the line against Essendon at the MCG.
- Essendon continues to concede high uncontested possession rates, a major weakness.
- Key prop players: Connor MacDonald, Nick Watson, and Zach Merrett.
Hawthorn vs Essendon Preview
- Hawthorn vs Essendon Preview
- Head to Head
- Hawthorn Form Analysis
- Hawthorn Team News
- Essendon Form Analysis
- Essendon Team News
Hawthorn will continue its march towards a top-two finish with a win over Essendon and is well placed to cover the 50.5-point line at the MCG.
The Bombers come off a rare win last weekend, edging out the inconsistent Giants side by three points and have shown they can compete well at stoppage.
That could keep them in the contest early but winning the clearance battle is only one piece of the puzzle. Essendon continues to concede more uncontested possessions than any side in the competition, an alarming statistic against a Hawthorn side that thrives on spreading from contest and carving teams apart with precise ball movement.
After a bit of a wake up call against Melbourne three weeks ago, Hawthorn's system has clicked over the past fortnight, with its balance between contested work and outside run proving difficult to stop.
The Hawks have no shortage of players capable of finding the football, while their variety of tall forwards will provide plenty of options, while at ground level, Nick Watson is arguably the premier small forward in the game.
The Hawks will use the wide expanses of the MCG to get the game on their terms and come off 64 and 70 points, while Essendon's four clashes against current top-eight sides at the MCG this season have resulted in an average losing margin of 56 points.
The Bombers will again lean heavily on Zach Merrett to drive its midfield in the Round 20 match. The former skipper and possible 2027 Hawk, has an excellent record against what may be his future side, but unless the Bombers can significantly improve their transition defence, they will struggle to contain Hawthorn's outside game for four quarters.
Expect the Hawks to dictate the game from turnover, pile on another healthy score and cover the line comfortably, while Connor MacDonald, Nick Watson and Zach Merrett shape as standout player prop options.
- Hawthorn took out the most recent head-to-head by 62 points.
- Connor MacDonald has had 30+ disposals in each of his past two matches.
- Nick Watson has kicked 3+ goals in each of his past four matches.
- Zach Merrett has had 30+ disposals in his past two matches against the Hawks.
Head to Head
Hawthorn have won the past two matches between the two sides and took out the Round 1 contest this season by 62 points.
Standout player performances in the recent head-to-heads have come from;
- Jack Gunston (Hawks) – five goals in the Round 1 match this season.
- Jack Ginnivan (Hawks) – 2+ goals in four of his past five against the Bombers.
- Zach Merrett (Dons) – 30+ disposals in two of his past three against Hawthorn.
- Peter Wright (Dons) – nine goals in his past three matches against the Hawks.
Hawthorn Form Analysis
Hawthorn sits third on the ladder with a 12-5-1 record and has responded superbly since its 35-point loss to Melbourne three weeks ago, producing consecutive emphatic victories over Carlton and Richmond by 64 and 70 points respectively. The Hawks have built momentum at the perfect time of the season and continue to look every bit a genuine premiership contender.
Last week was another complete performance, dismantling Richmond by 70 points at the MCG. Nick Watson and Mitch Lewis starred with five goals each, while Jack Ginnivan was influential despite reduced game time. Connor MacDonald continued his outstanding form with 33 disposals, while Jarman Impey (34) and Josh Battle (27) controlled proceedings from defence. Jack Gunston has now kicked 14 goals across his past four matches, Jai Newcombe has collected 25 or more disposals in five of his past six games, while Ginnivan has produced 20+ disposals in five of his past six.
The Hawks have posted a 5-2-1 record at the MCG this season and have won their past two matches at the venue by 64 and 70 points. Their ability to dominate uncontested possession and generate repeat forward-half entries shapes as a major advantage against Essendon.
Hawthorn Team News
Hawthorn appears to have escaped last week's win without any major injury concerns. Jack Ginnivan finished the Richmond match early with back soreness, but the club indicated it was purely precautionary and he is expected to play. Will Day is expected to return after being managed last week with a corked calf, while the big man, Ned Reeves is edging closer to a return.
Essendon Form Analysis
Essendon snapped a 12-match losing streak last week with a stirring three-point upset over Greater Western Sydney to claim just its second win of the season. It was also the club's first victory since the coaching change. The Bombers prevailed in a low-scoring contest, winning 10.7 (67) to 8.16 (64), with GWS's inaccuracy proving costly. Under Dean Solomon, Essendon is averaging just 59 points per game.
The Bombers laid the foundation through contested football, dominating the clearances 45-28 and kicking the first four goals from stoppages while recording a season-high pressure rating of 189. Zach Merrett responded brilliantly after a quiet outing against Brisbane with 35 disposals and a goal, Archie Roberts gathered 27 touches, while Jacob Farrow and Nick Bryan each kicked two goals. Merrett has now recorded at least 28 disposals in six of his past eight matches.
While last week's victory was encouraging, Essendon still concedes more uncontested disposals than any side in the AFL. That weakness looms as a significant concern against Hawthorn's elite ball movement and ability to punish teams in transition.
Essendon Team News
The Bombers will monitor Nate Caddy after he was taken to hospital with an elevated heart rate during last week's win over Greater Western Sydney, although he was discharged later that evening and is expected to be given the all-clear to play. Xavier Duursma suffered a hamstring injury and shapes as the major concern for selection, while Nick Bryan played out the game despite carrying a knock and is expected to be available. Nik Cox starred at VFL level with seven goals, while Ben McKay finally found some form down back. Elijah Tsatas continues to post big numbers at the lower level.
Verdict
Hawthorn to cover with Watson and McDonald to continue strong form. Merrett amongst the disposals for the Bombers
Hawthorn -53.5
Line
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Connor McDonald
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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