Melbourne vs Geelong Cats Tips - Demons to continue unbeaten 2026 MCG run against wounded Cats
Melbourne enters Friday night's AFL blockbuster against Geelong at the MCG in strong form, unbeaten at home in 2026 and building momentum for a top-four finish. The Demons’ midfield, led by Max Gawn, is set to exploit a depleted Cats side, who are battling injuries to key players including Max Holmes and Jeremy Cameron. Melbourne’s edge in the ruck and home-ground advantage make them favorites. Watch for Max Gawn’s disposals and Kozzie Pickett’s goal contributions as vital factors in the likely Demons victory.
- Melbourne unbeaten at MCG in 2026, favored over injury-hit Geelong.
- Max Gawn’s ruck dominance and Kozzie Pickett’s versatility are key factors.
- Geelong’s injuries and Melbourne’s form point to a likely Demons victory.
Melbourne vs Geelong Cats Preview
- Melbourne vs Geelong Cats Preview
- Head to Head
- Melbourne Form Analysis
- Melbourne Team News
- Geelong Cats Form Analysis
- Geelong Cats Team News
Melbourne will stamp themselves as the real deal with victory over the wounded Cats at the MCG in Friday night footy.
The Demons are unbeaten at the venue in 2026 and face a Cats side battling a growing injury list, particularly around the midfield and ruck. Max Gawn looms as the dominant figure around stoppages, while James Worpel appeals as an interesting value disposal play if he continues to receive greater midfield responsibility. Expect Melbourne to find a way in what should be a fascinating contest.
You can never write Geelong off but injuries are beginning to stretch the Cats. Max Holmes' absence leaves a significant hole in their outside run, while the uncertainty around several key players has forced others into unfamiliar roles in recent weeks.
The ruck battle shapes as the defining matchup in the Round 20 encounter. Geelong has battled to find continuity in that area over recent weeks and now comes up against the competition's premier big man. Max Gawn has been in outstanding touch, giving Melbourne first use around stoppages while also acting as an extra midfielder with his follow-up work and ball use. If Gawn controls the hit-outs and clearance battle, Melbourne's midfield should generate repeat inside 50 entries and keep the game played in its front half.
There is also a fascinating tactical battle around Kozzie Pickett. The Melbourne star has become one of the competition's most influential players through the midfield, making him a prime candidate for a run-with role. If Geelong elects to send attention his way, expect Melbourne to respond by pushing Pickett deeper forward where his speed and goal sense can still damage the Cats. His versatility gives the Demons an answer regardless of how Geelong attempts to contain him.
James Worpel could prove one of the better value player props. After spending much of the season in the VFL, opportunity has arrived following Holmes' injury and he looked comfortable back at AFL level last week. The former Hawk has consistently found the ball against Melbourne throughout his career and, with increased midfield minutes likely, shapes as a genuine chance to exceed his disposal line if the game opens up through the middle.
Melbourne's record at the MCG is impossible to ignore. The Demons have been outstanding on their home ground all season, combining strong clearance work with elite defensive pressure to wear sides down over four quarters. Geelong is capable of making this a genuine contest, but the Cats' growing injury toll, combined with Melbourne's edge in the ruck and home-ground advantage, points towards another important victory for the Demons. Take the Dees in the head to head with a focus on Pickett for goals, rather than disposals. Max Gawn looks set for a 22+ disposal match.
- Melbourne claimed the most recent MCG meeting between the two sides.
- The Demons are unbeaten at the MCG in 2026.
- James Worpel has had 25+ disposals in each of his past eight matches against Melbourne.
- Max Gawn has had 22+ disposals in seven of his past eight matches.
Head to Head
Geelong were 39-point winners against Melbourne the last time the two sides met, with that match played back in Round 4 last season. The Demons were eight-point winners in the most recent MCG meeting.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Bailey Smith (Cats)- 25+ disposals in each of his past eight matches against Melbourne.
- James Worpel (Cats)- As a Hawk, he had 25+ disposals in each of his past seven matches against Melbourne.
- Zach Guthrie (Cats)- 30 disposals in the most recent meeting.
- Kozzie Pickett (Dees)- 11 goals in six matches against Geelong, kicking 2+ in four of those.
Melbourne Form Analysis
Melbourne sit sixth on the ladder with a 12-6 record and remain right in the hunt for a top-four finish, level on wins with fourth and fifth-placed Brisbane and Adelaide. The Demons have won three straight matches and four of their past five, building strong momentum at the right time of the season. They backed that up with a 16-point win over North Melbourne last weekend after overcoming an early deficit.
The MCG has become Melbourne's fortress. The Demons are a perfect 9-0 at the venue this season and have consistently produced their best football there, making Friday night's clash another significant challenge for Geelong.
Matthew Jefferson produced a career-best four-goal haul against North Melbourne, while Jacob van Rooyen continued his outstanding form with another two goals to make it 16 across his past four matches. Tom Sparrow starred with 33 disposals and has now recorded 25+ in four of his past five, Jake Bowey continued his outstanding season with 29 disposals after collecting 31 the previous week, while Kozzie Pickett was arguably the game's most influential player with 29 disposals and a goal. He is averaging 23 disposals and 1.3 goals per game in 2026.
Melbourne Team News
Daniel Turner is set to be monitored after suffering a rib injury that required a trip to hospital against North Melbourne, while Changkuoth Jiath also failed to finish after hurting his lower leg. Melbourne will assess both throughout the week. Harrison Petty is a strong chance to return from injury.
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Geelong kept its finals hopes alive with an important 27-point win over St Kilda after entering Round 19 having lost five of its previous six matches. The Cats responded well, controlling the game through intercept marking and ball movement, scoring 10.8 (68) from intercept possession chains compared to St Kilda's 5.4 (34). They remain firmly in the hunt for a top-six finish despite an injury list that continues to grow.
The Cats have played three matches at the MCG this season for a 1-2 record. Their lone victory came against Collingwood, while they were narrowly beaten by both Carlton and Hawthorn, highlighting how difficult the venue has been compared to GMHBA Stadium.
Bailey Smith again led the way with 35 disposals and has now reached 30+ possessions in eight of his past nine matches. Gryan Miers made an immediate impact on his return with three goals from 22 disposals and has now recorded 20+ possessions in four consecutive matches. The Cats will again rely heavily on that experienced duo as they look to overcome a mounting injury toll.
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong's biggest concern is Max Holmes, who suffered an ankle injury against St Kilda and appears unlikely to be available. Shaun Mannagh also finished the game with hamstring tightness and will need to prove his fitness, while the Cats remain without their star forward, Jeremy Cameron, for at least another month. Tanner Bruhn and Jack Bowes are among some possible reinforcements that could come in.
Verdict
Take the Dees in the head to head with Gawn a major factor. Worpel is value in disposal props for the Cats.
Melbourne
Win
@13/16 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS
Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.
Max Gawn
To Have 23+ disposals
@7/12 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS
Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad
James Worpel
To Have 25+ disposals
@12/5 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS
18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org
Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
Top Betting Sites
Betting offers
Upcoming Events
08 May 2026
- WNBA 2026 -
- Basketball
10 June 2026
- Volleyball Nations League 2026 -
- Volleyball
09 July 2026
- VCT 2026 China Stage 2 -
- Esports
Load More
Sports Tips Starts in
Today's Acca Tips
-
Soccer tips
-
Horse Racing tips
-
Tennis tips
