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Australia vs Samoa Tips & Preview - Kangaroos to edge thrilling RLWC semi-final

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026 13:47
Australia are tipped to win by a 1-12 point margin against Samoa in the Rugby League World Cup semi-final. The Kangaroos have won all three matches but have not consistently dominated top opposition, with narrow victories over New Zealand and Fiji. Tom Trbojevic and Brian To'o are also recommended as anytime tryscorer bets. Australia field an unchanged starting 13, while Samoa make one change with Ronald Volkman replacing the injured Chanel Harris-Tavita. Both teams have shown attacking quality, but Australia are expected to grind out another close win.
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Jeremy Darke 05 Nov 2026
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  • Australia to win by 1-12 points is the main tip.
  • Tom Trbojevic and Brian To'o are tipped as anytime tryscorers.
  • Australia have edged past strong teams but not dominated.
kangaroos samoa rugby league
The Kangaroos to take down Samoa (Getty Images)

Australia vs Samoa Verdict


Australia have yet to find their best form at the Rugby League World Cup, but can grind out another victory in the semi-final against Samoa on Sunday. It has been narrow wins to this point and a 1-12 point margin appeals again. 

  • Australia have won all three World Cup matches, scoring 126 points and conceding 50.
  • Australia's victories over New Zealand and Fiji came by two and 14 points respectively.
  • Samoa have scored 160 points across three matches, averaging 53.3 per game.
  • Samoa scored four tries to Tonga's three in their narrow 20-18 defeat.
  • Brian To'o scored twice against Tonga in Round 3.

Head to Head


Australia defeated Samoa 30-10 in the 2022 World Cup final and 38-12 in their 2023 meeting, winning those two matches by an average margin of 23 points.

Australia Form


Australia opened their World Cup campaign with a hard-fought 24-22 victory over New Zealand before overcoming Fiji 36-22 in Round 2.

The Kangaroos produced their most convincing result against Cook Islands, running away with a 66-6 victory to complete the group stage unbeaten.

Australia have averaged 42 points per game, although their attacking numbers were boosted by the comfortable victory over Cook Islands. 

The Kangaroos have shown flashes of their quality without consistently dominating stronger opposition.

Samoa Form


Samoa started their campaign in devastating fashion, defeating France 78-4 before recording a 64-6 victory over Papua New Guinea.

Their unbeaten run ended with a narrow 20-18 defeat to Tonga in Round 3, although the performance was considerably more competitive than the result suggests.

Samoa scored four tries to Tonga's three but converted just one of their four attempts. Brian To'o crossed twice, while Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Ronald Volkman also found the try line.

Jarome Luai remains central to Samoa's attack, while Stephen Crichton and To'o provide an established combination out wide. The Samoan forward pack has also demonstrated its ability to compete physically with quality opposition.

Team News


Australia have named an unchanged starting 13 from their victory over Cook Islands, with Reece Walsh at fullback, Cameron Munster and Tom Dearden in the halves, and Tom Trbojevic retaining his place on the wing.

Cameron Murray returns on the interchange bench alongside Ethan Strange, Keaon Koloamatangi and Reuben Cotter. Latrell Mitchell and James Tedesco are included in the extended squad, while David Fifita drops out.

Samoa have made one change to their starting side, with Ronald Volkman replacing the injured Chanel Harris-Tavita at five-eighth alongside captain Jarome Luai.

Verdict

Australia to win by 1-12 points is our best bet as the Kangaroos are backed to produce their strongest performance of the tournament while Samoa remain competitive. 

Tom Trbojevic and Brian To'o anytime tryscorer complete our selections.

Best Bet1: Australia 1-12 Winning Margin @7/4 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Tom Trbojevic Anytime Tryscorer @9/10 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Brian To'o Anytime Tryscorer @7/4 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Australia
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Tom Trbojevic
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Brian To'o
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Bet at bet365
jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst

Jeremy is a freelance journalist who is a true sports activist. A die-hard fan of the NRL all his life and also has a passion for all the major American sports.


From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.

Tipster and presenter on YouTube and a co-founder of The Sports Cap and The Basketball Fix.

You can find Jeremy on Muckrack and LinkedIn.

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