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New Zealand vs Tonga Tips & Preview - Tonga value for RLWC semi-final upset

andrew-hendrie
Andrew Hendrie
Editor
Last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026 13:47
In the Rugby League World Cup semi-final, Tonga are tipped to narrowly defeat New Zealand, with the best bet on either team winning by 1-10 points but preference for Tonga. Tonga’s recent victories over England and Samoa highlight their emergence as a rugby league powerhouse, while New Zealand have responded strongly after an opening loss but face potential changes with key players pushing for inclusion. Tonga’s unchanged squad and resilience in tight matches give them the edge in what is expected to be a close contest.
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Andrew Hendrie 05 Nov 2026
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  • Tonga are tipped to win a close Rugby League World Cup semi-final against New Zealand.
  • Tonga have beaten England and Samoa, showing strong recent form.
  • New Zealand may have key players returning, but Tonga’s line-up remains unchanged.
new zealand tonga rugby league
New Zealand and Tonga clash in the RLWC semi-final (Getty Images)


New Zealand vs Tonga Verdict


New Zealand and Tonga are tipped to go to the wire in a thriller of a semi-final at the Rugby League World Cup. Either team by 1-10 points is the best bet and I'm taking the value for Tonga to cause an upset.

Head To Head

New Zealand hold a 7-2 advantage in the overall H2H, but Tonga have managed to win two of the last five - including a victory at the 2017 World Cup. They have emerged has a genuine Rugby League powerhouse over the last few years.

New Zealand Form

New Zealand will sense a huge opportunity to win this World Cup, with Australia undoubtedly far from their best coming into the semi-finals.

However, despite the Kangaroos indifferent form, the Kiwis were unable to beat their great rivals in the World Cup opener, falling 24-22 after leading on several occasions.

Stacey Jones' side have bounced back emphatically from that disappointment, surviving an early scare from the Cook Islands to prevail 82-16 before a 78-0 demolition of Fiji last week, with Casey McLean running rampant with four tries.

Tonga Form

It's been a brilliant World Cup from Tonga and there's no reason they can't go all the way.

Kristian Woolf's side produced a polished performance to topple England 30-12 in their opening game before blitzing Lebanon 36-0.

Tonga then emerged triumphant in one of the greatest - if not the greatest - rugby league game of the year last week against pacific rivals Samoa, edging out an incredible 20-18 victory, with Fonua-Blake's try in the 73rd minute proving the difference.

Team News

The Kiwis could receive a significant double boost ahead of this clash, with Kalyn Ponga and Phoenix Crossland both pushing for inclusion in the final 19-man squad.

Ponga is closing in on a remarkable comeback after breaking his arm in the opening match against Australia, while Crossland is available again after completing a four-game suspension stemming from Newcastle's NRL preliminary final. The Knights hooker joined the squad on Monday as an injury replacement for Jacob Laban.

Meanwhile, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has been promoted to the starting side following Ronaldo Mulitalo's one-match suspension, with Leo Thompson added to the extended bench.

Kristian Woolf has resisted making changes to his squad following the thrilling 20–18 victory over Samoa, retaining the same 19 players for this semi-final.

A major positive for Tonga was the successful return of Isaiya Katoa, who completed the full 80 minutes against Samoa after recovering from an ankle injury. The talented playmaker will once again combine with Tui Lolohea in the halves.

Verdict

Tonga are backed to win a close semi-final, with Toia and McLean the Anytime Tryscorer plays.

Best Bet1: Either Team by 1-10 Tri Bet @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Tonga Win H2H @37/20 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Casey McLean Anytime Tryscorer @9/8 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Robert Toia Anytime Tryscorer @19/10 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Either Team by 1-10
Tri Bet
@9/10 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad

Bet at bet365
Tonga Win
H2H
@37/20 - 2 Units
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS

18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports
Casey McLean
Anytime Tryscorer
@9/8 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad

Bet at bet365
Robert Toia
Anytime Tryscorer
@19/10 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS

18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports
andrew-hendrie
Andrew Hendrie

Sports Editor • 20+ years betting experience

Andrew has been writing about sports for over a decade now after graduating with a double degree in 2013. In that time he has covered a wide range of sports, including NRL, AFL, Football (soccer), Tennis, NBA, NFL and more.


As a fan of Manchester City (since the 90s, he’s not a bandwagoner so they say), Canterbury Bulldogs and the Newcastle Jets, he’s experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows throughout the last few years.

You can find Andy at Muckrack and X.

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