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Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm NRL Betting Tips - Storm value for a big win in Round 26

ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker
Editor
Last updated: Tue 25 Aug 2026 22:17
Melbourne Storm are favoured to beat the Brisbane Broncos in their upcoming NRL clash at Suncorp Stadium. Despite Broncos avoiding the wooden spoon with their latest win, Storm's dominant record (19-5 at Suncorp, 6 wins in last 8) and Brisbane’s defensive struggles make Melbourne good value to cover a -2.5 line. Storm are also tipped for a potential 13+ point win, with Moses Leo and Harry Grant strong candidates for anytime try scorer bets. The recommendation: back Melbourne and consider try scorer markets.
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  • Melbourne have a dominant record vs Brisbane at Suncorp (19-5)
  • Broncos have conceded 30+ points in 4 straight games
  • Recommended bets: Storm -2.5, Storm 13+, Leo & Grant anytime tryscorers
melbourne storm
Melbourne Storm to win (Getty Images)


Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm Verdict


The Broncos are now guaranteed to avoid the wooden spoon, but I think the Storm are value in this one. I'm backing Melbourne to win and cover the short line, while they can also make it a blowout by 13+ points. 

  • Melbourne are 19-5 all time vs Brisbane at Suncorp Stadium and have won 6 of the last 8 games played there.
  • Brisbane have allowed 30+ points to opponents in 4 straight games while 7 of their 15 losses this year have been by 13+ pts.
  • Moses Leo has scored 3 tries in his last 3 games and in 9 of 15 appearances this season.
  • The Broncos have allowed 32% of opposition tries through the middle this season, the most of any team in the league.

Head to Head 


Brisbane have won three straight games against Melbourne, including last year’s Grand Final. But Melbourne have won six of the last eight matchups at Suncorp and lead the regular season head to head 12-2 since the start of the 2019 season.

Brisbane Broncos Form


The Broncos were able to overcome an 18-16 halftime deficit aswell as a 23rd minute Pat Carrigan sin-bin in their 34-30 win over Canberra last weekend at GIO stadium. 

The win ensured they are not able to finish last on the table but with only seven wins this season, the fanbase has been left wanting more.

Brisbane rank 16th for points, 17th in Run Metres, 16th in Linebreaks and complete at the 12th best rate in the NRL. Defensively they are 10th or worst in the same metrics. 

Against the Raiders they managed only 10 tackles inside the Raiders 20m zone, pointing to the difficulty they have in gaining yardage. 

Melbourne Storm Form


The Storm’s slim hopes of making finals were dashed last week with a 22-14 loss to the Penrith Panthers. 

They can finish as high as 9th but with only nine wins from 22 games up until now, this will at the very best go down as the 2nd worst season in the club's history. 

Melbourne went down 22-0 in the first half against the Panthers with 5 errors and 4 penalties gifting the visitors valuable territory and possession. 

They managed to turn the tables in the 2nd half with 64% of possession and 70% of territory but despite three Panthers players being sinbinned they were only able to post 14 pts.

The Storm attack has been able to match it with most opposition this season but the once impenetrable defence was lacking with an average opponent score of over 24 points throughout the year.

Verdict

Take Melbourne to cover -2.5, also sprinkle Storm to win 13+, Moses Leo and Harry Grant as anytime tryscorers.

Best Bet1: Melbourne -2.5 Line @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Melbourne 13+ Winning Margin @9/4 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Moses Leo Anytime Tryscorer @21/20 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Harry Grant Anytime Tryscorer @29/10 at Ken Howells - 1 Unit
Melbourne -2.5
Line
@9/10 - 3 Units
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Melbourne 13+
Winning Margin
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Bet at dabble
Moses Leo
Anytime Tryscorer
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Bet at Star Sports
Harry Grant
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up to £25 Cashback
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Bet at Ken Howells
ryan-tucker
Ryan Tucker

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Australian Sports Specialist & Betting Model Expert

Ryan's love for sport traverses many countries and cultures. From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between. 


Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.

Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.

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