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Canberra Raiders vs Dolphins NRL Betting Tips - Raiders the value in Canberra in Round 12

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
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Last updated: Tue 19 May 2026 22:38
The upcoming NRL match between Canberra Raiders and the Dolphins is tipped in favor of the Raiders, who have the home advantage and capitalize on the Dolphins' road struggles. Both teams are affected by Origin call-ups, suggesting a low-scoring affair, with under 50.5 points expected. Recent form shows Canberra improving, while the Dolphins have boosted their attack but still falter away from Suncorp Stadium. Key players to watch include Kaeo Weekes for Raiders, with a strong try-scoring record.
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Jeremy Darke 19 May 2026
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  • Raiders favored at home as Dolphins struggle away from Suncorp.
  • Both teams impacted by Origin call-ups; expect under 50.5 points.
  • Tip: Kaeo Weekes to score, Raiders to win.
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canberra raiders
Canberra Raiders to win at home (Getty Images)

Canberra Raiders vs Dolphins Preview


The Dolphins struggle away from Brisbane and there is value on the Raiders to win this. Origin call ups have affected both teams and I am leaning on under 50.5 points as a result.

  • Just one of the Dolphins 5 victories have come outside of Suncorp Stadium in 2026.
  • 7 of 10 Raiders matches have gone under the game total.
  • Eight of their last 9 Canberra Thursday night matches have gone under the game total.
  • Kaeo Weekes has 5 tries in his last 5 matches. 

Head to Head 


The Dolphins put up 62 points on the Raiders in Round 27 last season, making up for their 40-28 loss in Round 8 earlier in the year.

The two matches prior to 2025 both went to golden point with Canberra winning both. The head to head tally is at 3-2 to the Raiders.

The last four matches have gone over the game total.

Canberra Raiders Form - Raiders Improving


Canberra enjoyed Magic Round from the stands after a 30-18 loss to the Penrith Panthers in Round 10. 

The loss to Penrith was their second in three games after losing to the Tigers 33-14 with a standard victory over the Gold Coast in the middle. Over a five game stretch, Canberra are 3-2 after losing four straight prior. 

The Raiders haven’t really hit the mark like they did in 2025, unable to keep themselves in matches for a full 80 minutes like they did last season, where they were able to snatch a few close ones. 

Ethan Strange and Ethan Sanders have been improving, however, they do not have not been able to unlock their outside backs as well as they would of liked, ranked 12 in the NRL with 49 line breaks on the season and 10th in the league with an average of 1,693 run metres per game.

Dolphins Form Analysis - Road Troubles


The Origin period couldn’t really come at a worse time for the Dolphins who have been building strongly over the last few weeks with big wins over Melbourne (18 points), Canterbury (32 points) and another impressive performance against South Sydney at Magic Round (22 points). 

Their three victories broke a four game slump and Kristian Wolf has been able to unlock the electric attack while also keeping the defensive line intact. 

The Dolphins have scored an average of 34.66 points in their last three victories while allowing their opponents to score just two tries in each of their last three.

The return of Jack Bostock has definitely given the Dolphins attack depth on both sides of the field with their 2-5 some of the best in the business and all contributing on the scoresheet on a weekly basis. 

Verdict

Kaeo Weekes to score for the Raiders as they get the victory at home in a match that sees less than 50.5 points. Corey Horsborough is a roughie for a try.

Best Bet1: Canberra Raiders Money Line @1/1 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 50.5 Game Total @10/11 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Kaeo Weekes Anytime Tryscorer @6/5 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Corey Horsburgh Anytime Tryscorer @9/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Canberra Raiders
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Corey Horsburgh
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