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New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins NRL Qualifying Final Tips - Close contest in store between top 4 rivals

andrew-hendrie
Andrew Hendrie
Editor
Last updated: Wed 09 Sep 2026 22:01
The upcoming NRL finals match between the New Zealand Warriors and the Dolphins is set to be an intense and evenly-contested battle, as evidenced by their 4-4 head-to-head record and a history of close finishes. Both teams come in with impressive winning runs, but weaknesses in defense have been highlighted as a concern. The Warriors regain key players but miss tryscoring winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, while the Dolphins return to full strength. Expect another tight game, with the Dolphins favored to cover the +4.5 line and star players likely to cross for tries.
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  • Warriors & Dolphins are tied 4-4 in head-to-head, last 6 games close.
  • Both teams on long winning streaks, but defensive issues persist.
  • Dolphins tipped to cover +4.5 line; expect tries from Herbie & CNK.
herbie farnworth dolphins
Herbie Farnworth to score for the Dolphins (Getty Images)


New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins Verdict


These sides are hard to split - as underlined by the fact the last six meetings have been decided by four points or less. Another tight game is in prospect with the Phins backed to cover a +4.5 line along with Either Team by 1-12.
  • The last six meetings have been decided by four points or less
  • Dolphins have covered a +4.5 line in seven of the eight previous meetings
  • Dolphins are on a seven-game winning streak
  • Herbie Farnworth has scored 1+ try in his last four appearances vs Warriors
  • Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has scored four tries in his last three games & crossed vs Phins earlier this year
  • The Warriors right winger has scored three tries in the last three games against Dolphins

Warriors vs Dolphins Head To Head

The H2H couldn't really be any closer, locked at 4-4 coming into this finals showdown, with the last three decided by exactly two points.

New Zealand Warriors Form

Another stellar campaign for the Warriors, who only just missed out on the minor premiership in the final round of the regular season.

Despite various injuries and setbacks, most notably in the halves, the Warriors continue to flourish and come into this clash on a six-game winning run.

The Wahs have been humming in attack, scoring an average of 39 points since Round 22.

However, Andrew Webster will want to put an added emphasis on defence for this one after his side conceded 30 points against Manly last week and were exposed on the edges.

Dolphins Form

Huge season for the Dolphins, who come into the finals having won 15 of their last 17 games.

No secret that the Phins are absolutely blistering in attack, but they will have to tighten up their defence if they want to win a maiden NRL premiership - as it stands, they are looking to become the first team in history to concede 50+ points during the regular season and win a Grand Final.

In fact, the Phins leaked 50+ points twice, including a 66-0 whitewash vs the Sharkies.

But Kristian Woolfe's side responded brilliantly from that setback, compiling a seven-match winning run - including a brilliant 26-12 win over the Roosters a fortnight ago.

Slow starts have also been an issue for the Phins all season, but they repeatedly find a way back into games.

Team News

Some big ins for the Warriors, with Leka Halasima, Wayde Egan, Kurt Capewell and Jackson Ford all returning for this one - but tryscoring winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak remains sidelined due to a collarbone injury.

The Phins are at full-strength, with Selwyn Cobbo (ankle), Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (knee) and Kodi Nikorima (hamstring) all coming back into the side.

Verdict

Another close game is expected between these two sides, with the Dolphins holding value with a +4.5 start. Herbie & CNK backed for tries.

Best Bet1: Either Team 1-12 Margin @8/11 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Dolphins +4.5 Line @9/10 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Herbie Farnworth Anytime Tryscorer @8/5 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: C. Nicoll-Klokstad Anytime Tryscorer @23/24 at Ken Howells - 1 Unit
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andrew-hendrie
Andrew Hendrie

Sports Editor • 20+ years betting experience

Andrew has been writing about sports for over a decade now after graduating with a double degree in 2013. In that time he has covered a wide range of sports, including NRL, AFL, Football (soccer), Tennis, NBA, NFL and more.


As a fan of Manchester City (since the 90s, he’s not a bandwagoner so they say), Canterbury Bulldogs and the Newcastle Jets, he’s experienced the highest of highs and the lowest of lows throughout the last few years.

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