South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights NRL Elimination Final Tips - Bunnies backed to progress
The South Sydney Rabbitohs take on the Newcastle Knights in a finals showdown where offense is expected to dominate. The Rabbitohs have won four of their last five games, averaging 33.6 points per match, while the Knights have averaged 30.4 points but conceded heavily recently. Both sides' defenses have struggled, and prior meetings indicate another high-scoring affair. The recommended bets are Rabbitohs -3.5 (First Half Handicap), Over 47.5 points, with David Fifita and Alex Johnston strong try-scorer picks.
- Rabbitohs and Knights average over 30 points per game but concede heavily.
- Recent meetings and form suggest a high-scoring clash; Over 47.5 points tipped.
- Key picks: Rabbitohs -3.5 first half, David Fifita/Johnston to score tries.
- South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Verdict
- Head to Head
- South Sydney Rabbitohs Form
- Newcastle Knights Form
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Verdict
South Sydney Rabbitohs and Newcastle Knights have plenty of firepower and I'm backing a high-scoring game. The Rabbitohs have won four of their last five matches and can edge to victory.
- South Sydney have won four of their last five matches.
- The Rabbitohs have averaged 33.6 points across their last five games.
- Newcastle have averaged 30.4 points across their last five.
- The Knights have conceded an average of 35 points across their last four matches.
- Five of Newcastle's last six matches have gone Over the game total.
- Three of the last four Rabbitohs-Knights meetings have gone Over.
Head to Head
South Sydney and Newcastle split their two regular-season meetings in 2026, and both were decided by four points or fewer.
Newcastle won a Round 9 thriller 42-38 before South Sydney responded with a 26-24 victory in Round 19.
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form
South Sydney have hit the finals in arguably their best attacking form of the season.
The Rabbitohs have won four of their last five, scoring 50 against the Roosters and 42 against the Titans in their final two regular-season matches. Their 33.6-point average across the last five highlights just how dangerous the attack has become.
Walker has rediscovered some of his best football at exactly the right time, while Mitchell's return gives Souths another game-breaker on the left edge. Mitchell has played just 11 matches this season but has still produced 12 tries, nine try assists, 52 tackle breaks and 11 linebreaks.
David Fifita is also becoming increasingly influential, while Alex Johnston enters the finals after becoming just the fifth player in premiership history to score 30 tries in a season.
The concern remains defence. South Sydney have conceded an average of 26.9 points across their last 10 matches and have held an opponent below 20 only once during that stretch.
Newcastle Knights Form
Newcastle's season has gone in the opposite direction.
After sitting fourth with eight rounds remaining, the Knights won only three of their last eight games and lost their final two matches against Manly and the Warriors while conceding 44 and 46 points.
Their attack hasn't been the problem. Newcastle have averaged 30.4 points across their last five matches and still boast elite attacking weapons in Kalyn Ponga, Bradman Best, Dominic Young and Fletcher Sharpe.
The defence is much harder to trust. Newcastle conceded at least 24 points in each of their final four games, averaging 35 points against across that stretch.
They also won only half of their away matches during the regular season and now travel to Allianz Stadium against a South Sydney side that has built considerable momentum.
Verdict
Both attacks are producing points while neither defence has looked trustworthy, making over 47.5 points the strongest selection. South Sydney's fast starts make the Rabbitohs -3.5 first half appealing, while David Fifita and Alex Johnston are tryscorer bets.
Rabbitohs -3.5
First Half Handicap
@10/11 - 3 Units
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Over 47.5
Game Total
@10/11 - 2 Units
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David Fifita
Anytime Tryscorer
@21/10 - 1 Unit
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Alex Johnston
First Tryscorer
@11/2 - 1 Unit
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From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.
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