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New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Betting Tips - Wahs by 13+ points in Round 20

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 16 Jul 2026 11:08

Ryan Tucker 16 Jul 2026

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Warriors are strong favourites with a 13+ margin expected
Head-to-head & stats favour an under 46.5 points total
Leka Halasima is a top tryscorer pick for value

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New Zealand Warriors to roll on (Getty Images)

New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons Verdict
Head to Head Stats
New Zealand Warriors Form - Top 2 Wahs
St George Illawarra Dragons Form - Improving, But Bottom

New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons Verdict

New Zealand Warriors are a top two, the St George Illawarra Dragons are bottom of the ladder. This should be a routine win for the hosts with 13+ point margin the value. Also back the game total to stay under 46.5 points.

The Warriors rank second in points and third in linebreaks despite a disrupted spine, while the Dragons rank 17th in both points scored and points allowed.
New Zealand's forward pack is the mismatch, especially with Kurt Capewell and Mitch Barnett returning to strengthen an already physical side.
The head-to-head total trend is strong, with 11 of the last 12 games between these clubs landing under 46.5 points.
Leka Halasima is not the obvious market name this week, but he has scored nine tries in his last 10 games at Go Media Stadium and offers better value than the short winger prices.

Head to Head Stats

The Warriors have won five of their last six against the Dragons and St George Illawarra have not won at Go Media Stadium since 2011.

That is a long drought to carry into a game where New Zealand have the stronger attack, the better defence and the more reliable forward pack.

The total trend is just as important. This matchup has routinely stayed under 46.5, and the Dragons' attack does not profile as a team capable of forcing New Zealand into a shootout.

New Zealand Warriors Form - Top 2 Wahs

The Warriors were excellent in their 32-6 win over Wests Tigers last week, and the most impressive part was how much of it started through the middle.

James Fisher-Harris scored first and led the early dominance, Taine Tuaupiki ran for more than 200 metres, Jacob Laban punched out 160 metres, and the starting middles combined for more than 320 run metres.

That is the sort of platform that travels into this matchup. New Zealand have averaged 24.0 points scored and 16.4 conceded across their last five.

With Capewell, Barnett and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak back, the Warriors look deeper than they were a week ago.

St George Illawarra Dragons Form - Improving, But Bottom

The Dragons come in with a 2-3 record across their last five, but the season-long rankings are still the concern.

They sit 17th for points, 17th for linebreaks and 17th for points conceded, which is not the profile to trust away to a top-two side.

Their recent games have had some competitive patches, but they still struggle to sustain pressure for 80 minutes.

Tyrell Sloan has been named despite the hamstring issue that bothered him in Round 18, and Moses Suli is back in the squad via the bench, but the bigger issue is whether they can win enough of the middle to keep the Warriors from rolling downhill.

Verdict

New Zealand Warriors v St George Illawarra Dragons

Take the Warriors 13+, Under 46.5, and Leka Halasima in both the anytime and first tryscorer markets.

Warriors 13+

Winning Margin

@3/5 - 3 Units

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Bet at bet365

Under 46.5

Game Total

@9/10 - 3 Units

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Bet at dabble

Leka Halasima

Anytime Tryscorer

@21/10 - 1 Unit

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Bet at Star Sports

Leka Halasima

First Tryscorer

@16/1 - 1 Unit

£30 Free Bet

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Ryan is an Australian sports content writer, producing insights and analysis for NRL, AFL and Basketball. He is also our YouTube host and presenter, can be found on Bets.com.au and is also a co-founder of The Sport Cap and The Basketball Fix.

From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between.

Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.

Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.

You can find Ryan on Muckrack and LinkedIn.