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Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm NRL Betting Tips - Roosters to take advantage of Storm's absentees

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
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Last updated: Wed 15 Jul 2026 16:48
In NRL 2026 Round 20, the Sydney Roosters are favoured to beat the Melbourne Storm by 13+ points, leveraging their strong home form and defensive prowess. Melbourne's attack is weakened by the loss of playmakers Munster and Hughes, making it unlikely they'll score more than 16.5 points. Billy Smith emerges as a top value anytime try-scorer, while the Roosters' core form and returning players boost their dominance. Sydney's defence and the Storm's makeshift halves make this a one-sided prediction in favour of the Roosters.
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  • Storm are depleted with key men Munster & Hughes missing
  • Melbourne backed to struggle to surpass 16 points
  • Roosters to claim a 13+ point victory in Round 20
sydney roosters
Sydney Roosters to claim the win (Getty Images)

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm Verdict


The Roosters have won six of seven games played at Allianz Stadium this season and Sydney can add another one to that record. Melbourne continue to bounce back from a woeful start but must do without Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes in this one.

  • The Roosters have won six of seven games at Allianz Stadium this season.
  • Sydney have conceded only 12.6 points per game across their last three matches.
  • Melbourne are without Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes.
  • Billy Smith has scored four tries in his last three games.

Head to Head


Melbourne have controlled this matchup over the longer term, winning eight of their last nine games against the Roosters. They also claimed an 18-4 victory when the teams met earlier this season.

However, Sydney produced a dominant 40-10 win over the Storm late last season and enter this meeting in much better shape. 

Melbourne’s current injury list makes the recent head-to-head record less relevant, with the Storm forced to field a makeshift halves combination against a Roosters side sitting third.

Sydney Roosters Form - 4 Wins In 5


The Roosters have won four of their last five matches and continue to consolidate their position inside the top four and are second favourites in the Premiership Odds race. 

Their 28-12 win over Parramatta was built on patience and defence, with Sydney absorbing pressure before pulling clear late through Daniel Tupou’s milestone hat-trick.

Across their recent run, the Roosters have held Canberra scoreless, restricted Cronulla to eight points and kept Parramatta to 12. 

They are conceding only 12.6 points per game across their last three and 16.75 across their past eight, giving them the defensive foundation to control weaker attacking sides.

Cody Ramsey remains at fullback while James Tedesco completes the concussion protocols, but Ramsey was excellent against Parramatta and provides enough speed and support play to keep Sydney dangerous.

Melbourne Storm Form - Rebounding Storm 


Melbourne have won four of their last five matches, but their form remains difficult to assess. 

They were impressive in wins over Canberra and Newcastle, yet were comprehensively beaten 30-4 by Manly before scraping past the Titans with a last-minute try.

The Storm sit 10th and remain four competition points outside the top eight, meaning every match has become essential. 

Their resilience cannot be questioned, but the loss of Munster and Hughes leaves them without their two primary organisers and most dangerous attacking kickers.

Harry Grant returns at hooker and will likely be asked to play a bigger role, while Wishart and Toelau form a new halves pairing.

Verdict

Roosters are backed to run away as 13+ point winners, keeping the depleted Storm under 16.5 points in the process. Billy Smith is the value try scorer on Friday night.

Best Bet1: Sydney Roosters +13 13+ Winning Margin @1/1 at Hollywood bets - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Melbourne Under 16.5 Team Total @10/11 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Billy Smith Anytime Tryscorer @28/17 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Billy Smith First Tryscorer @12/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
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jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke

Sports Editor • 20+ years betting experience

Jeremy is a freelance journalist who is a true sports activist. A die-hard fan of the NRL all his life and also has a passion for all the major American sports.

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