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Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins NRL Betting Tips - Dolphins to overcome Origin losses and win in Round 18

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Thu 02 Jul 2026 10:29
Despite missing key players due to State of Origin commitments, the Dolphins are projected to continue their impressive form and secure a win over the Newcastle Knights in Round 18. The Knights have a strong recent run and historically have a perfect record against the Dolphins, but the visitors’ depth and form give them the edge. Expect a lower-scoring battle, with Dolphins’ Herbie Farnworth singled out as a likely try-scorer. Recommended bets include Dolphins -1.5, under 52.5 total points, and Farnworth in try-scorer markets.
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Jeremy Darke 02 Jul 2026
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  • Dolphins seek ninth consecutive win despite Origin absentees
  • Knights unbeaten in five matches vs Dolphins but missing stars
  • Expect a close, low-scoring game with Herbie Farnworth tipped to score
dolphins nrl
Dolphins to win (Getty Images)

Newcastle Knights vs Dolphins Verdict


The Dolphins are hit with Origin absentees, but can still continue their winning streak away at the Knights. Herbie Farnworth is tipped to be the key man for the Phins with tries predicted and the total to stay under.

  • The Dolphins have won eight consecutive matches.
  • Newcastle have won all five previous meetings against the Dolphins.
  • The model projects the Dolphins by 6.1 points against a 1.5-point line.
  • Both teams have conceded just 18.4 points per game across their last five matches.
  • Herbie Farnworth has scored a try in each of his last 3 matches.

Head to Head


History belongs to Newcastle, who have won all five meetings between the clubs since the Dolphins entered the competition. 

Every game has been competitive, with margins of 6, 14, 8, 4 and 2 points, but this is the strongest Dolphins outfit the Knights have faced and they arrive in far better form than previous encounters.

Newcastle Knights Form - Knights Winning Run


The Knights have won four of their last five matches to climb into the top five, averaging 25.6 points while conceding just 18.4 during that stretch. 

Adam O'Brien's side has built its success on resilience, grinding out close victories and defending well in key moments, particularly at McDonald Jones Stadium where they have won four straight.

The challenge this week is replacing Kalyn Ponga and Bradman Best. Fletcher Sharpe moves back to fullback after impressing there previously, while Dylan Brown will shoulder more responsibility as Newcastle's chief playmaker. 

The Knights have shown they can compete without their stars, but against the competition's most in-form side they'll need to produce one of their best performances of the season.

Dolphins Form - Eight Straight For Phins


The Dolphins continue to establish themselves as genuine premiership contenders, riding an eight-game winning streak into Round 18. 

They have averaged 36.0 points across their last five games while winning by an average margin of 17.6 points, combining attacking flair with a defence that has quietly conceded only 18.4 points per match over the same period.

What's been most impressive is their ability to keep winning despite missing key personnel. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Isaiya Katoa, Jack Bostock, Selwyn Cobbo, Max Plath and Tom Flegler are all unavailable, yet the Dolphins continue to dominate through the middle before creating opportunities on the edges. 

Tom Gilbert returns to strengthen the forward rotation, while Herbie Farnworth, Jamayne Isaako and Kodi Nikorima provide more than enough strike to keep the attack rolling.

Verdict

The Dolphins have enough depth to cope with Origin absentees and can get up against the Knights in a low-scoring contest. Herbie Farnworth will see plenty of ball and cross for a try.

Best Bet1: Dolphins -1.5 Handicap/Line @10/11 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 52.5 Game Total @10/11 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Herbie Farnworth Anytime Tryscorer @1/1 at Star Sports - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Herbie Farnworth First Tryscorer @17/2 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Dolphins -1.5
Handicap/Line
@10/11 - 3 Units
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Under 52.5
Game Total
@10/11 - 2 Units
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Bet at bet365
Herbie Farnworth
Anytime Tryscorer
@1/1 - 2 Units
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Bet at Star Sports
Herbie Farnworth
First Tryscorer
@17/2 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
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Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

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