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Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers NRL Betting Tips - Panthers to put on a show

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 24 Apr 2026 09:57

Andrew Hendrie 24 Apr 2026

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Penrith has superior recent form against Newcastle, winning 16 of the last 18 matches.
Newcastle's defense shows vulnerabilities, allowing 38+ points in all 2026 losses.
Penrith excels with a 6-1 record, strong attack, and the best league defense, poised to control game tempo.

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Penrith Panthers (Getty Images)

Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers Preview
Head to Head
Newcastle Knights Form
Penrith Panthers Form

Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers Preview

Penrith are backed to dominate Newcastle and bounce back to their early-season form after a slight lull in recent matches. The Knights have been competitive in patches but have been blown out of the park over the last couple of weeks.

Penrith have lost to Newcastle just twice in their last 18 matches.
Newcastle’s three losses this season have all been by a 13+ margin
Newcastle have allowed 38 points or more in all 3 of their losses in 2026.
Casey McLean has 3 tries in 3 matches against Newcastle.

Head to Head

Newcastle broke Panthers 10-game unbeaten streak in Round 12 last season with a 25-6 victory at Carrington Park, however, Penrith replied with a 48-12 smashing in Round 23 in Newcastle.

Five of the last six matches between the Knights and Newcastle have gone under the game total.

Newcastle Knights Form

Newcastle’s season sits at 3-4, but their recent form is trending in the wrong direction after back-to-back heavy losses.

Their latest defeat 38–24 loss to the Roosters highlighted major defensive concerns, particularly in the second half where they conceded 26 unanswered points after leading at the break.

The Knights were dominated in territory and run metres, giving up over 1500 metres while missing 55 tackles, a clear sign of fatigue and structural breakdowns.

Across their last five, Newcastle have shown they can score points, averaging around 25 per game, but their defence remains a major issue, conceding at the same rate.

When they lose control of possession and field position, they struggle to reset, often allowing games to get away quickly. While their attacking upside keeps them competitive, their inability to maintain defensive intensity for 80 minutes is becoming a consistent problem.

Penrith Panthers Form

Penrith continue to look like one of the benchmark teams in the competition, sitting at 6–1 and combining elite attack with the best defensive record in the league.

Their 23–22 golden point win over the Dolphins wasn’t their cleanest performance, but it showcased their composure under pressure and once again that Nathan Cleary has the coldest veins in the NRL.

The Panthers are averaging over 30 points per game while conceding just 13, underlining their dominance on both sides of the ball. Even when not at their best, their system holds up, particularly through strong completion rates and disciplined defence.

The loss of Mitch Kenny is a disruption, but their depth remains a strength. Against sides like Newcastle, Penrith’s ability to control tempo and limit opposition opportunities makes them extremely difficult to beat.

Verdict

Newcastle Knights v Penrith Panthers

The Panthers will score over 30 points and win with a 13+ margin. Casey McLean will go 4 in 4 against the Knights in his career with another try.

Penrith Panthers

13+ Winning Margin

@32/33 - 3 Units

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Penrith Over 30.5

Team Total

@10/11 - 2 Units

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Casey McLean

Anytime Tryscorer

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Casey McLean

First Tryscorer

@17/2 - 1 Unit

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