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Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters NRL Betting Tips - Roosters to claim a narrow victory in Round 21

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Wed 22 Jul 2026 09:49
The Sydney Roosters are heavily favored to edge out the Newcastle Knights in a close contest, having won their last five meetings and four successive games overall. While Newcastle are resilient at home and keep games close, the Roosters' defensive strength and winning record give them the advantage. Expect a low-scoring affair (under 45.5 points), with Mark Nawaqanitawase tipped to break his try drought. Recommended bets include Roosters Money Line, Under 45.5, and Nawaqanitawase for tryscorer markets.
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Jeremy Darke 22 Jul 2026
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  • Roosters have won last 5 meetings and 9 of last 10 against Knights
  • Expect a low-scoring game (Under 45.5 points)
  • Mark Nawaqanitawase tipped as anytime tryscorer
roosters knights nrl
Sydney Roosters and Newcastle Knights clash (Getty Images)

Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters Verdict


Sydney Roosters enjoy this match up, winning the last five games against the Newcastle Knights. I'm backing them to edge a tight contest with under 45.5 points also appealing. 

  • The Roosters have won their last five games against Newcastle.
  • Sydney’s last three wins at McDonald Jones Stadium have come by four, two and two points.
  • Six of the last eight meetings have produced fewer than 45.5 points.
  • Eight of the Roosters’ last nine matches have gone Under their respective totals.

Head to Head


The Roosters have dominated the overall rivalry, winning nine of the last 10 meetings against the Knights.

Sydney won 38-24 when the teams met earlier this season, but their recent trips to Newcastle have been far tighter. The Roosters won 12-8 in 2025, 22-20 in 2024 and 18-16 in 2023, with the Knights making the visitors work for the result each time.

Newcastle have not beaten the Roosters at McDonald Jones Stadium since 2019.

Newcastle Knights Form - Back-to-Back Defeats


Newcastle have lost their last two matches, but both defeats came by only two points against strong opponents. They pushed Cronulla to the final moments in a 20-18 loss after falling 26-24 to South Sydney the previous week.

The Knights have now played seven consecutive games decided by six points or fewer. That run reflects both their improved resilience and their inability to close out tight matches, with three of their most recent defeats coming by exactly two points.

Kalyn Ponga remains the focal point of the attack, while Dylan Brown and Fletcher Sharpe provide variation in the halves. Newcastle have averaged only 17.8 points across their last five games, but their defence has limited opponents to 16.8 over the same period.

Their five-game winning streak at McDonald Jones Stadium makes them difficult to oppose completely.

Sydney Roosters Form - Four Wins Straight


The Roosters have won four consecutive matches to move within two competition points of the ladder-leading Panthers. Their run includes victories over Cronulla, Brisbane, Parramatta and Melbourne, with Sydney conceding 18 points or fewer in every game.

Last week’s 14-6 win over the Storm was not their most polished attacking performance, but it demonstrated their defensive improvement. 

Melbourne did not play the ball inside Sydney’s 20-metre zone until the second half, while the Roosters controlled field position through their forwards and kicking game.

Sydney hold a clear advantage in kick metres, averaging 704.2 across their last five matches compared with Newcastle’s 646.6. 

Sam Walker and Daly Cherry-Evans have developed an effective combination, while Naufahu Whyte continues to provide strong carries and second-phase opportunities through the middle.

Verdict

Roosters can continue their domination of the Knights winning in a tight match that has less than 45.5 points. Mark Nawaqanitawase will break his try scoring drought.

Best Bet1: Sydney Roosters Money Line @7/10 at Hollywood bets - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 45.5 Game Total @10/11 at bet365 - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Mark Nawaqanitawase Anytime Tryscorer @1/1 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Mark Nawaqanitawase First Tryscorer @7/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Sydney Roosters
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Under 45.5
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Mark Nawaqanitawase
Anytime Tryscorer
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Mark Nawaqanitawase
First Tryscorer
@7/1 - 1 Unit
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Bet at Hollywood bets
jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • 15+ Years of Experience, Australian Sports Specialist

Jeremy is a freelance journalist who is a true sports activist. A die-hard fan of the NRL all his life and also has a passion for all the major American sports.


From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.

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