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Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers NRL Betting Tips - Panthers to take down Eels in Round 21

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Wed 22 Jul 2026 14:18
The Penrith Panthers, coming off recent struggles, are heavily favored to beat the Parramatta Eels, given their strong head-to-head record and superior form. Despite losing three of their last four, Penrith leads the NRL in attack and defense, and recent meetings suggest a big win is likely. Parramatta have improved slightly, but continue to struggle offensively. Recommended bets include Penrith covering a -16.5 line, Parramatta scoring under 12.5 points, and Tom Jenkins scoring 2+ tries. Expect a dominant Penrith performance.
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Jeremy Darke 22 Jul 2026
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  • Panthers likely to cover -16.5 handicap after dominating recent meetings
  • Eels' offence struggles, expected to score under 12.5 points
  • Tom Jenkins tipped for multiple tries against Parramatta
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penrith panthers
Penrith Panthers to bounce back (Getty Images)

Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers Verdict


Penrith Panthers have lost three of their last four matches to hit a bump in the season, but they should thrash the struggling Parramatta Eels and cover a healthy -16.5 line. The head to head makes bad reading for the Eels and that shouldn't change.

  • Penrith have beaten Parramatta by 22 and 28 points in their last two meetings.
  • The Eels have scored 12 points or fewer in four of their last seven games.
  • Penrith rank first in the NRL for points scored and points conceded.
  • Tom Jenkins has scored 2+ tries in three of his last five matches.

Head to Head


Penrith have won the last five meetings between the Western Sydney rivals, with Parramatta’s average losing margin sitting at 13.6 points across that stretch.

The gap has widened in the two most recent clashes. Penrith won 32-10 at CommBank Stadium last season before producing a dominant 48-20 victory in Round 4 this year. 

Parramatta have pushed the Panthers close in this fixture before, but their last win in the rivalry now feels increasingly distant.

Parramatta Eels Form - Slight Improvements


Parramatta have shown some improvement across the past month, winning two of their last five matches and producing competitive efforts against Canterbury and the Roosters. 

Their upset victory over Manly was one of their better performances of the season, with the Eels defending with far greater resilience than they had earlier in the year.

The problem remains their ability to reproduce that level from week to week. Parramatta have averaged only 14.8 points across their last five matches and sit 14th for points scored, 16th for run metres and 14th for linebreaks. They have also managed only one victory over a current top-eight side this season.

Mitchell Moses’ return improves their organisation and kicking game, while Ronald Volkman has cleared the concussion protocols. However, the Eels will need much more than improved direction to trouble Penrith.

Penrith Panthers Form - Bump In The Road


Penrith have lost three of their last four matches, but the results do not tell the entire story. 

They were beaten by one point against the Titans, lost a tight contest to Brisbane and also fell to North Queensland during a disrupted Origin period. Their only win in that stretch was a convincing 36-14 result over South Sydney.

The Panthers continue to lead the competition in both attack and defence, averaging 29.2 points while conceding only 14.6 across their last five matches. 

They also average more than 1,900 run metres, giving them a considerable territorial advantage over a Parramatta side struggling to generate momentum through the middle.

Nathan Cleary was unable to control last week’s loss to Brisbane due to a lack of possession, but he should see far more attacking ball here. 

With Isaah Yeo, Liam Martin and Isaiah Papali’i providing a full-strength forward platform, Penrith are well placed to re-establish their usual pressure-based game and turn field position into points.

Verdict

Penrith are backed to hold the Eels under 12.5 points and cover as 16.5-point favourites with Tom Jenkins scoring another double for the Panthers.
Best Bet1: Penrith -16.5 Handicap/Line @10/11 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Parramatta Under 12.5 Team Total @10/11 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Tom Jenkins 2+ Tries @5/4 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Tom Jenkins First Tryscorer @9/2 at Hollywoodbets - 1 Unit
Penrith -16.5
Handicap/Line
@10/11 - 3 Units
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Bet at bet365
Parramatta Under 12.5
Team Total
@10/11 - 2 Units
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Bet at dabble
Tom Jenkins
2+ Tries
@5/4 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
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Bet at Star Sports
Tom Jenkins
First Tryscorer
@9/2 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
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Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

Bet at Hollywoodbets
jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke

Sports Editor & Betting Analyst • Sports Writer & Expert Betting Analyst

Jeremy is a freelance journalist who is a true sports activist. A die-hard fan of the NRL all his life and also has a passion for all the major American sports.


From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.

Tipster and presenter on YouTube and a co-founder of The Sports Cap and The Basketball Fix.

You can find Jeremy on Muckrack and LinkedIn.

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