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2026 State of Origin Game 3 First Tryscorer Tips - 3 best bets in the tryscorer markets

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Mon 06 Jul 2026 14:28
With the first try often proving decisive in the State of Origin series, analysis of the past decade reveals that centres and wingers dominate this category. For Game 3 in 2026, predictions focus on Queensland's second-rowers—Jeremiah Nanai or Briton Nikora—depending on selection, and NSW’s Mark Nawaqanitawase, who impressed on debut. Selwyn Cobbo, a standout performer in the series, is also a top contender. The betting odds reflect solid value for these players, with particular attention on how team changes could influence the outcome.
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  • Nanai or Nikora are top QLD picks depending on selection.
  • NSW’s Mark Nawaqanitawase stands out after a strong debut.
  • Selwyn Cobbo is a must-watch after his Game 2 hat-trick.
selwyn cobbo
Selwyn Cobbo can get the opening try (Getty)

2026 State of Origin Game 3 First Tryscorer


The opening try of State of Origin Game 3 is likely to be crucial on June 8, 2026, but who will get it in the decider between Queensland vs New South Wales.

We use trends from the last 10 years of Origin clashes between the Maroon and Blues and they point to two solid bets along with a tactical pick based on potential change to the Queensland team.

  • In the 29 games played in the last 8 years, a Queensland has scored the first try 15 times, a New South Welshman 14 times
  • NSW have scored the first try in Game One in 7 of the previous 9 years.
  • The centres (11) and wingers (10) have naturally dominated the first try scoring category, second-rowers have scored on 4 occasions with no other position scoring first more than once. 

Also get the tips verdict on Origin Game 3 and our two selections for State of Origin man of the match.

Briton Nikora or Jeremiah Nanai 


Jeremiah Nanai could yet pinch Briton Nikora’s starting spot for Game 3 so I'm backing either of the Queensland second rowers.

Nanai has had a direct impact for the Cowboys since coming back from injury and is fully fit for Game 3 of Origin. A double against the NRL benchmark Penrith Panthers last week sealed his inclusion in the QLD squad after lifting North Queensland to victory over the Panthers with his tries and 100 metres from 11 runs in the match. 

If Nikora starts he will need to lift. The Sharks second-rower has probably been one of the underwhelming players for QLD this series and could just be waiting for the right moment to make his mark for the Maroons. 

Mark Nawaqanitawase


You are not taking this job seriously if Mark Nawaqanitawase is not in the FTS repertoire. 

A double for the beaten Blues on his debut gives him the credentials at representative level after just one match, and with Brian To’o being dropped for Jack Bostock I expect the first attacking opportunities for NSW to go towards Marky Mark. 

Selwyn Cobbo


Selwyn Cobbo was unlucky not to get Man of the Match honours in Game 2 of the series after scoring three tries and running for 200 metres.

Cobbo has had a break out season for the powering Dolphins and has easily been the most influential player for the Maroons this series behind Sam Walker. 

You know that Walker and Munster are going to go back to the try scoring well that is Cobbo and it won’t take long for the QLD winger to put his stamp on Game 3 of the series.

Verdict

Our first tryscorer bets include a bet on two Queensland players depending on which starts the game.

Best Bet1: Nikora / Nanai First Tryscorer @20/1 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Mark Nawaqanitawase First Tryscorer @9/1 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Selwyn Cobbo First Tryscorer @8/1 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Nikora / Nanai
First Tryscorer
@20/1 - 1 Unit
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Mark Nawaqanitawase
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Selwyn Cobbo
First Tryscorer
@8/1 - 1 Unit
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