State of Origin Game 2 Tips & Betting Preview - Best bets for NSW Blues vs QLD Maroons at the MCG
NSW Blues are tipped to edge out Queensland Maroons in a closely contested State of Origin Game 2 at the MCG, given their impressive Melbourne record (5 wins from 6 at the MCG). Despite a shaky Game 1 victory, NSW’s strategic changes—like the return of Mitchell Moses and Payne Haas—could be decisive. Queensland remain dangerous, retaining Kalyn Ponga at fullback but missing Patrick Carrigan. The clash is expected to be tight, with Casey McLean emerging as a potential game-changer for the Blues.
- NSW have won 5 of 6 Origin matches at the MCG
- Game 2 expected to be a tight contest
- Casey McLean seen as a key player for NSW
- State of Origin Game 2 Verdict
- Head to Head
- NSW Blues Form - Blues Escape In Game 1
- NSW Blues Team News
- QLD Maroons Form - Ponga Dismissal Changes Things
- QLD Maroons Team News
- State of Origin Game 2 Team Lists
State of Origin Game 2 Verdict
New South Wales have won five of six Origin matches played at the MCG and the Blues are backed to win Game 2 on Wednesday. As a back up, you can take either team by 1-12 points with a close game expected in Melbourne.
You can also get our selections for Origin 2 first tryscorers and best on ground in the match.
- NSW have won 5 of 6 Origin matches played at the MCG including the last 3 matches played in Melbourne.
- NSW have won 5 of the last 8 Game 2s
- The average winning margin in Melbourne in the last 10 matches is 8.7 points
- Casey McLean has 8 tries in 4 appearances for New Zealand.
Head to Head
NSW pulled off a last-minute miracle to defeat a 12-man QLD side 22-20 after Kalyn Ponga was sent off in the 57th minute with QLD leading 20-6.
State of Origin Game 2 head to head record in the last 10 matches is deadlocked at five wins each - underlining why Ladbrokes Australia see this as a close game in the odds.
NSW has a 6-4 lead in matches played in Melbourne but significantly have a 5-1 advantage at the MCG.
NSW Blues Form - Blues Escape In Game 1
It is no secret that the Blues escaped with the Game 2 victory after playing with an extra man for the final 23 minutes of the match and needing the final second to claim a 22-20 win.
The opening 20 minutes was ugly, real ugly. Dropped ball, poor discipline and a 0-20 deficit that had put them well on the back foot. In the first half they had made 5 errors and 23 missed tackles and needed a miracle to save them after the break, which came.
Ethan Strange was a clear spark in his Blues debut with a try, a line break, 2 line break assists along with 15 runs and 135 metres, however it was his halves partner and man of the match Nathan Cleary that made the special plays that clawed the Blues back to the win.
The Penrith master kicked a 40/20 that changed the momentum and finished it off with a four-pointer himself and setting up two of the remaining three NSW tries. Finally a master class at Origin level for Cleary.
NSW Blues Team News
NSW have made several key changes for Game 2, with Mitchell Moses set to return at five-eighth after missing the series opener, pushing Ethan Strange to a bench role.
Payne Haas also returns to strengthen the forward pack, while Dylan Lucas earns a starting spot and Jacob Saifiti drops out of the squad.
In the backline, James Tedesco retains the fullback role ahead of Dylan Edwards, while a late injury to Stephen Crichton sees Kotoni Staggs partnered by Casey McLean in the centres.
Reece Robson keeps the No.9 jersey following Blayke Brailey's injury, with Api Koroisau added to the squad as cover.
QLD Maroons Form - Ponga Dismissal Changes Things
QLD did everything right in Game 2 beside Kalyn Ponga getting sent off in the 57th minute. Even then, they did everything right to keep themselves in the match.
The Maroons took the chances presented to them by the Blues with three tries in the opening 16 minutes of the game and then played the percentage plays that kept them in full control of the match until the Ponga incident.
They had 56% possession and 54% of the territory in the first half with 20 more runs than the Blues and over 200 more run metres.
In the second half, they even spent more time in the Blues half at 53% than the Blues did in theirs and put in a champion effort to hold on to literally the final seconds of the match. But it just wasn’t meant to be.
Sam Walker was a real difference also on debut, creating 2 try assists and a line break assist, however it was his kicking game that was the difference with his precision pinning the Blues in their own end and creating scoring chances for his outside men.
QLD Maroons Team News
Queensland has largely stuck with the side that won Game 2, with Billy Slater retaining Kalyn Ponga at fullback despite his costly send-off in the series opener.
Reece Walsh returns to the squad as a potential impact player off the bench, while Sam Walker keeps his place at halfback after an encouraging Origin debut. T
he Maroons have been forced into one key forward change, with injured lock Patrick Carrigan replaced by Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, while Reuben Cotter shifts to lock and Briton Nikora starts in the second row ahead of Max Plath.
Jojo Fifita has been named on the wing, although Murray Taulagi remains a potential late inclusion.
State of Origin Game 2 Team Lists
| NSW Blues | No. | |
|---|---|---|
| James Tedesco | 1 | Kalyn Ponga |
| Brian To'o | 2 | Selwyn Cobbo |
| Casey McLean | 3 | Robert Toia |
| Kotoni Staggs | 4 | |
| Tolu Koula | 5 | Jojo Fifita |
| Mitchell Moses | 6 | |
| Nathan Cleary | 7 | Sam Walker |
| Payne Haas | 8 | Tom Flegler |
| Reece Robson | 9 | Harry Grant |
| Mitch Barnett | 10 | |
| Hudson Young | 11 | Briton Nikora |
| Dylan Lucas | 12 | Kurt Capewell |
| Isaah Yeo (c) | 13 | Reuben Cotter |
| Interchange | - | Interchange |
| Cameron Murray | 14 | Max Plath |
| Victor Radley | 15 | Lindsay Collins |
| Addin Fonua-Blake | 16 | |
| Api Koroisau | 17 | Trent Loiero |
| Extended Squad | - | |
| Ethan Strange | 18 | Reece Walsh |
| Mark Nawaqanitawase | 19 | Murray Tualagi |
| Haumole Olakau’atu | 20 | Heilum Luki |
Verdict
The Blues to win a close game, but take the TriBet on the margin as cover. Casey McLean to be the difference.
NSW Blues
Money Line
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From when he was a little fella he has played most sports ranging from rugby, ice hockey, tennis and football, just to name a few. His interest in analytics and statistics helps him find the edge while writing previews and being a regular tipster.
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State of Origin Game 2 - NSW Blues v Queensland Maroons
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