Tonga vs Lebanon Rugby League World Cup 2026 Tips & Predictions - Tonga to Cover
Tonga are tipped to secure a dominant victory over Lebanon in the 2026 Rugby League World Cup match on October 23. After defeating England 30-12 in their opener, Tonga's forwards are expected to play a crucial role again, especially against a Lebanon side that struggled defensively in their loss to Papua New Guinea. Betting tips include Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and Stefano Utoikamanu as likely tryscorers, with JoJo Fifita predicted to score multiple tries. Tonga's physical advantage and recent form fuel expectations of a comprehensive win.
- Tonga are expected to secure a convincing win against Lebanon, following their 30-12 victory over England.
- Tonga's forwards, including Finefeuiaki and Utoikamanu, are tipped to score, while JoJo Fifita is expected to grab multiple tries.
- Lebanon struggled defensively in their opener, conceding seven tries and over 2,000 running metres to Papua New Guinea.
Tonga vs Lebanon 2026 Rugby League World Cup Tips & Predictions
Tonga are tipped to record a convincing victory over Lebanon in the 2026 Rugby League World Cup on Friday, October 23, with the tryscorer markets offering some interesting betting opportunities.
- Tonga vs Lebanon 2026 Rugby League World Cup Tips & Predictions
- Tonga vs Lebanon Key Stats
- Tonga vs Lebanon Head to Head
- Tonga Form Analysis
- Lebanon Form Analysis
- Tonga vs Lebanon Team News
- Tonga vs Lebanon Team Lists
Tonga made an impressive start to the tournament, defeating England by 18 points despite completing just 78% of their sets. Their forwards were particularly influential, scoring three of Tonga's four tries, and that physical advantage could prove decisive against Lebanon.
The Cedars struggled defensively against Papua New Guinea, conceding seven tries in a 42-18 defeat. They allowed 2,052 running metres, missed 41 tackles and committed 15 errors. Lebanon remained competitive in the first half, trailing just 18-12 at the break, but conceded four second-half tries as PNG's power and attacking pressure took their toll.
With Tonga expected to dominate possession and territory, Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and Stefano Utoikamanu are backed to cross the line, while JoJo Fifita is tipped to score multiple tries.
Tonga vs Lebanon Key Stats
- Tonga defeated England 30-12 in their opening World Cup fixture.
- Lebanon conceded nine line breaks and missed 41 tackles against Papua New Guinea.
- Seven of the 11 tries scored by Tonga and conceded by Lebanon in their opening matches came from forwards.
- JoJo Fifita has scored multiple tries in eight of his last 17 matches in which he has crossed the line.
Tonga vs Lebanon Head to Head
Tonga won the only previous head to head matchup between these nations in the 2017 World Cup quarter finals 24-22
Tonga Form Analysis
Tonga opened their World Cup Campaign in style with a 30-12 win over England in front of a boisterous crowd at HBF Park in Perth.
The Tongans took a 10-0 halftime lead and never relinquished their hold on the game despite just a 78% completion rate and five-eighth Latu Fainu lasting just 17 minutes on the park before straining his pectoral muscle.
They forced England into 17 errors and while the penalty count was even, Tonga were more disciplined in missed tackles and their end of set completions.
Lebanon Form Analysis
Lebanon lost their opening match of the World Cup to PNG in Port Moresby 42-18. The Kumuls got out to an early 6-0 lead after just 8 minutes but Lebanon were able to stabilise to go to the break down just 6 pts 18-12.
But it all became too much in the second half as they allowed their opponents to run in 4 tries to 1 to put the game out of reach. The difference in size and power across the board noticeable for the Cedars.
Lebanon managed just 1616 Run Metres while allowing 2052 to their oponent. They gave up 9 Linebreaks, had 41 missed tackles and committed 15 errors. No team is winning with those statlines.
Tonga vs Lebanon Team News
Tonga have made several changes following their victory over England.
Lolohea takes over at five-eighth, with Sione Katoa and Paul Alamoti joining the starting backline.
Stefano Utoikamanu moves into the starting front row, Jason Taumalolo shifts to lock and Kulikefu Finefeuiaki starts in the second row. Taniela Paseka has also been named on the bench.
Lebanon have made just one change to their starting lineup, with Moustafa Dirani replacing Yehya Ayache at hooker.
Tonga vs Lebanon Team Lists
| Tonga | No. | Lebanon |
|---|---|---|
| Lehi Hopoate | 1 | Jacob Kiraz |
| Sione Katoa | 2 | Tony Francis |
| Tolutau Koula | 3 | Michael Gabrael |
| Paul Alamoti | 4 | Jordan Samrani |
| Jojo Fifita | 5 | Jason Saab |
| Tuimoala Lolohea | 6 | Khaled Rajab |
| Isaiya Katoa | 7 | Alex Conti |
| Addin Fonua-Blake | 8 | Jaxson Rahme |
| Salesi Foketi | 9 | Moustafa Dirani |
| Stefano Utoikamanu | 10 | James Roumanos |
| Haumole Olakau'atu | 11 | Tony Sukkar |
| Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 12 | Mikael Ibrahim |
| Jason Taumalolo | 13 | Alex Twal |
| Soni Luke | 14 | Yehya Ayache |
| Taniela Paseka | 15 | Tupou Francis |
| Demitric Vaimauga | 16 | Jalal Bazzaz |
| Leka Halasima | 17 | Khalil Rahme |
| Latu Fainu | 18 | Joseph Nohra |
| Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | 19 | Abbas Miski |
| Talatau Amone | 20 | Ibrahim El Labban |
| Robert Toia | 21 | Mohamed Alameddine |
| Siua Wong | 22 | Cameron Kanaan |
Verdict
Take Tonga to cover the line, Finefeuiaki and Utoikamanu to both cross through the middle and JoJo Fifita to grab a double out wide.
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Ryan is an Australian sports content writer, producing insights and analysis for NRL, AFL and Basketball. He is also our YouTube host and presenter, can be found on Bets.com.au and is also a co-founder of The Sport Cap and The Basketball Fix.
From humble beginnings in Western Sydney growing up playing and refereeing Rugby League to running European wide Australian Rules Football tournaments there is a mountain of experience in between.
Multiple trips to North America has also deepened the love for the four major US sports and a continuing dream to catch as much live action as possible.
Stats and data analysis has now outgrown the hobby tag and the countless models and simulations are now being put to good use writing previews and predictions for NRL.
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