Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Betting Tips & Live Stream - Alcaraz Begins his Title Defence in Tokyo
Carlos Alcaraz, the defending champion, faces Alex Michelsen in the 2026 ATP Tokyo first round. While Alcaraz is the overwhelming favourite, Michelsen’s strong serve and recent form suggest he can keep the opening set close. Historically, Michelsen's matches against Top 5 players feature long opening sets, often going over 9.5 games. Our recommended bet for punters is Set 1 Over 9.5 Games. Fans can watch the match live on Stake, with easy steps to stream once an account is funded. Expect a competitive start but Alcaraz should ultimately prevail.
- Michelsen has lost all 4 matches against Top 5 players
- The first set went over 9.5 games in each of those defeats
- I am backing the trend to continue at the Japan Open
Carlos Alcaraz is an overwhelming favourite in Tokyo as he aims to defend his title. He has never faced Alex Michelsen however, so am backing the American to keep it close in the first set.
| Carlos Alcaraz | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Nationality | Spain | United States |
| Age | 23 (5 May 2003) | 22 (25 August 2004) |
| Height | 6'0" (1.83m) | 6'4" (1.93m) |
| Plays | Right-Handed | Right-Handed |
| Ranking | 3 | 34 |
| Career High | 1 (September 2022) | 30 (July 2025) |
| ATP Tour Titles | 26 | 0 |
| 2026 ATP Tour Titles | 2 | 0 |
| Grand Slam Titles | 7 | 0 |
| ATP Tokyo Best Result | Winner (2025) | Quarter-Finals (2024) |
HTH
This will be the first match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alex Michelsen.
Alcaraz Getting Back to His Best
Carlos Alcaraz started the year as World No.1 and justified it by winning the Australian Open, Qatar Open and losing to Jannik Sinner in the Monte Carlo final.
The Spaniard spent four months out of the game to recover from a wrist injury, missing the French Open and Wimbledon.
The 23-year-old returned to action at the US Open, dropping one set on his way to the quarter-finals where he went down in 5 sets to Ben Shelton.
Alcaraz played one match at the Laver Cup last week, beating Taylor Fritz 6-3 4-6 (13-11).
Michelsen Returns after US Open Heartbreak
Alex Michelsen has been a permanent presence in the Top 50 but remains some distance from the Top 20.
The 22-year-old lost to Taylor Fritz in the Washington quarter-finals and second round in Cincinnati.
The American hasn’t been seen since the US Open where he beat Brandon Nakashima, Daniel Merida Aguilar and Tomas Martin Etcheverry on his way to the quarter-finals.
Michelsen won the opening two sets against Frances Tiafoe and served for the match in the third set. He couldn’t get it done and was in tears after a heartbreaking 5-7 3-6 7-5 6-3 7-6 defeat.
How to Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen Live
Event: 2026 Japan Open
Round: First Round
Date: Thursday 1 October
The Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen match at the 2026 Japan Open is available to stream live for registered users on Stake.
Stake is our top-recommended platform for watching tennis live online. They offer high-definition, low-latency streams alongside competitive in-play betting odds so you can follow every point in real time.
Steps to Stream the Match Live:
Create an Account: Visit Stake.com via our official link to open an account.
Fund Your Account: Make a minimum deposit using your preferred payment method.
Locate the Match: Go to the Tennis tab under Live Events and select Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Michelsen.
Start Streaming: Click the Live Stream icon on the match screen to open the video feed.*
*Geo-restrictions apply. Users must be 18+ and hold a funded account to view live streams. Please gamble responsibly.
Verdict
Carlos Alcaraz is the clear favourite to defend his title in Tokyo and it’s unlikely Alex Michelsen will stop him in the first round. The American has a big serve however, and it could take some time for Alcaraz to adjust.
Over 9.5 Games
Set 1 Total Games
@10/11 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS
Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad
Over 12.5 Games
Set 1 Total Games
@5/1 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £10
Promo Code: NEWBONUS
New customers only. Bet £10+ to receive £10 in Free Bets. 7-day free bet expiry. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. GambleAware.org
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