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Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Betting Tips & Live Stream - Basilashvili to Keep it Close at ATP Vienna

eddy-tora
Eddy Tora
Editor
Last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026 18:21
Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz clash in the 2026 Vienna Open quarter-finals, with over 21.5 games tipped as the main selection. Alcaraz has featured in six tie breaks across his last nine matches, while Paul’s serve has only been broken once in Vienna, indicating both players are difficult to break. The article suggests a close contest, especially in the opening set, with additional consideration for set 1 over 10.5 games and set 1 over 12.5 games. This recommendation is based on recent form and match statistics.
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  • Alcaraz has seen a tie break in 6 of his last 9 matches
  • Paul’s serve has been broken only once in Vienna
  • I am backing the American to keep it tight in the quarters
Tommy Paul Carlos Alcaraz hands
Carlos Alcarazhas won his last 6 matches against Tommy Paul (Getty)

Tommy Paul has been serving strong in Vienna and Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t been winning easy since the US Open. I am backing the first set to go the distance.


Tommy PaulCarlos Alcaraz
Nationality United States Spain
Age 29 (17 May 1997) 23 (5 May 2003)
Height 6'1" (1.85m) 6'0" (1.83m)
Plays Right-Handed Right-Handed
Ranking 14 3
Career High 8 (June 2025) 1 (September 2022)
ATP Tour Titles 5 27
2026 ATP Tour Titles 1 3
Grand Slam Titles 0 7
ATP Vienna Best Result Second Round (2023) Semi-Finals (2021)

HTH


Carlos Alcaraz is 7-2 against Tommy Paul, winning the previous six encounters.

YearEventSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
2026 US Open Hard R16 Alcaraz 6-4 6-3 6-4
2026 Australian Open Hard R16 Alcaraz 7-6 6-4 7-5
2025 French Open Clay QF Alcaraz 6-0 6-1 6-4
2024 Paris Olympics Clay QF Alcaraz 6-3 7-6
2024 Wimbledon Grass QF Alcaraz 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2
2023 Cincinnati Masters Hard R16 Alcaraz 7-6 6-7 6-3
2023 Canada Masters Hard QF Paul 6-3 4-6 6-3
2023 Miami Masters Hard R16 Alcaraz 6-4 6-4
2022 Canada Masters Hard R32 Paul 6-7 7-6 6-3

Paul Playing Well in Vienna


Tommy Paul has made it to four finals this year, losing in Delray Beach, Hamburg, Queen's Club and winning the title in Houston.

The 29-year-old has been falling short on the hard court swing, knocked out in the quarter-finals in Cincinnati and Shanghai. He got to the semi-finals in Lyon last week, beaten in straight sets by Taylor Fritz.

The 29-year-old is playing well in Vienna, thrashing Andrey Rublev 7-5 6-2 and Luciano Darderi 6-1 6-1, hitting 29 winners and 5 unforced errors against the Italian.

Tie Break Time for Alcaraz


Carlos Alcaraz returned from injury at the US Open, getting to the quarter-finals where he lost in 5 sets to Ben Shelton. He played once at the Laver Cup, defeating Taylor Fritz.

The Spaniard won the title in Tokyo where all of his first sets went over 10.5 games, defeating Jiri Lehecka 7-6 6-4 in the final. He went to Shanghai and suffered a surprise third round defeat to Zizou Bergs.

The 23-year-old overcame Karen Khachanov 6-4 7-6 in his opening match in Vienna. He was on track for a fast win against Nikoloz Basilashvili before prevailing 6-1 7-6, saving four set points in the tie break.

How to Watch Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Live


Event: 2026 Vienna Open
Round: Quarter-Finals
Date: Friday 30 October

The Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz match at the 2026 Vienna Open is available to stream live for registered users on Stake.

Stake is our top-recommended platform for watching tennis live online. They offer high-definition, low-latency streams alongside competitive in-play betting odds so you can follow every point in real time.

Steps to Stream the Match Live:

Create an Account: Visit Stake.com via our official link to open an account.
Fund Your Account: Make a minimum deposit using your preferred payment method.
Locate the Match: Go to the Tennis tab under Live Events and select Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz.
Start Streaming: Click the Live Stream icon on the match screen to open the video feed.*

*Geo-restrictions apply. Users must be 18+ and hold a funded account to view live streams. Please gamble responsibly.

Verdict

Carlos Alcaraz has been involved in plenty of tie breaks since the US Open and the trend is set to continue against Tommy Paul. I am backing this one to go the distance.

Best Bet1: Over 21.5 Games Total Games @9/10 at bet365 - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Over 10.5 Games Set 1 Total Games @5/2 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Over 12.5 Games Set 1 Total Games @4/1 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Carlos Alcaraz Win 2-1 Set Betting @4/1 at Hollywoodbets - 1 Unit
Over 21.5 Games
Total Games
@9/10 - 3 Units
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS

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Bet at bet365
Over 10.5 Games
Set 1 Total Games
@5/2 - 2 Units
Bet £10 Get £10
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New customers only. Bet £10+ to receive £10 in Free Bets. 7-day free bet expiry. Stake not returned. Promotional Terms Apply. 18+. GambleAware.org

Bet at dabble
Over 12.5 Games
Set 1 Total Games
@4/1 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS

18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org

Bet at Star Sports
Carlos Alcaraz Win 2-1
Set Betting
@4/1 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS

Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.

Bet at Hollywoodbets
eddy-tora
Eddy Tora

Sports Editor • 15+ Years of Experience, Football & Tennis Betting Specialist

Eddy writes about a number of sports with a strong focus on European football and tennis.

  
You will find him covering big football matches from around Europe and beyond as well as ATP Tour tennis.

Follow Eddy on LinkedIn.

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