Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues Tips - Crows to hand Blues another crushing defeat
The upcoming match between Adelaide Crows and Carlton Blues in the AFL presents an intriguing battle. Adelaide is primed to enhance their performance, exploiting Carlton's defensive inconsistencies. With Adelaide winning past encounters convincingly, the Crows are expected to capitalize on their forward-pressure strategy, especially through players like Izak Rankine and Ben Keays. Carlton, struggling with composure in crucial moments, will need to improve their defensive setup to turn previous losses into wins. Adelaide's form and history suggest they are likely to cover the 29.5-point line.
- Adelaide Crows have won the last four matches against Carlton by an average of 50 points.
- Key players Rankine and Keays are expected to exploit Carlton's loose defensive transitions.
- Carlton struggles with consistency, often yielding leads due to defensive lapses.
Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues Preview
- Adelaide Crows vs Carlton Blues Preview
- Head to Head
- Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
- Adelaide Crows Team News
- Carlton Blues Form Analysis
- Carlton Blues Team News
Adelaide will break the shackles with a big win over Carlton to kick off Gather Round.
Last years minor premiers sit 1-3 and will be disappointed with their start to the season, dropping three close matches to fellow finalists from last season, all in tight fashion.
Last week, it was a two-point loss to the Fremantle Dockers at the Adelaide Oval on Good Friday, while on the same day, Carlton let slip a 22-point last quarter lead to go down to North Melbourne by 10.
They also sit with a 1-3 record, a win-loss that could and should be even or better, if the Blues could find a way to close out matches. Carlton’s issue is not just closing games out — it is their inability to absorb repeat waves once the ball starts living in their defensive half. North Melbourne’s high backs and midfield surge hurt them badly last week, and Adelaide are perfectly built to expose the same weakness with faster forward-half pressure and cleaner clearance connection.
If the Crows can simply break even in first-quarter clearances — after going 0-10 early last week before finishing plus in the second half — this should become a one-way game.
Ben Keays is perfectly suited to capitalise on Carlton’s loose defensive transitions, while Izak Rankine’s ability to hit the scoreboard when Adelaide wins territory makes him a major multiple-goal threat.
Against a Blues side still searching for composure in big moments, this looks the ideal matchup for Adelaide to finally put together the four-quarter performance they’ve been building towards.
Take Adelaide to cover the 29.5-point line in the first of the Round 5 matches, with Keays and Rankine strong anytime multiple goal options, while the total points under also appeals if the Crows control field position and deny Carlton easy transition scoring.
- Adelaide have won the past four between the two sides by an average of 50 points.
- Izak Rankine has kicked 2+ goals in his past two matches against Carlton
- Ben Keays has kicked 2+ goals in his past four against the Blues
- The Crows are yet to play a non-finalist from 2025, the Blues are yet to play a finalist from 2025
Head to Head
Adelaide were 60 point winners in the Round 8 Adelaide Oval clash last season with Jordan Dawson (22 disposals, three goals) and Izak Rankine (29 and two) the main destroyers.
Rankine has kicked 2+ in his past two against the Blues, while Ben Keays has 11 from his past four, hitting the 2+ in all. The Crows have won the past four between the two sides by an average of just under 40 points. The two sides have met at the Adelaide Oval on four occasions with Adelaide winning all four by an average of 50 points. Three have been by 50 points or more.
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Adelaide have lost three in a row with those losses coming by eight points or less. They opened with a 14 point win over Collingwood and haves since gone down to the Western Bulldogs by six, Geelong by eight and Fremantle by two. They were all tope eight sides in 2025.
The Crows weakness has been their slow starts and they were down by 34 points against the Dockers before mounting a comeback and hitting the lead in the last term before going down late.
The Crows are a low disposal side, ranking 14th in the past 10 weeks. Jordan Dawson shoulders alot of the load in a midfield that lacks star power. The skipper comes off 23 disposals, while Wayne Milera (27) and Josh Worrell (23) found plenty of footy across half back.
The lack of other A-grade midfielders has led to lower supply inside 50 with the Crows ranking 13th for inside 50s, leading to fewer opportunities for the likes of Riley Thilthorpe, who has kicked seven goals from four matches this season.
Adelaide Crows Team News
Luke Pedlar will be assessed during the week after copping a knee to the jaw in the tight loss to the Dockers, while a decision will also be made on Jordon Butts return from concussion. Mitch Hinge and Toby Murray returned via the SANFL last weekend, while Billy Dowling produced an impressive performance at that level and will be considered.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Carlton sit with a 1-3 win-loss record and have squandered winning positions win all of their losses, conceding 18 goals in the second half to lose to Sydney by 63 in Round 1, while there were 43 points up against Melbourne in the second term and 22 up at three-quarter time against North before going down by 10.
Even in their win against Richmond, another fadeout nearly cost them when kicking just one goal to four in the second half, holding on by four.
The Blues seem to have no answer when the momentum swings against them and their lack of midfield pace, as well as their defensive structure, has been a concern.
Jagga Smith has provided Carlton fans with some hope. In his first three matches he averaged 28 disposals but dropped off last weekend to 17 while Sam Walsh hit the 30+ in his first three but racked up just 19 last weekend. George Hewett had a team-high 22.
The Blues are struggling to find a focal point up forward with Mitch McGovern leading the goalkicking tally with seven goals from four matches, while Harry McKay has six. As a team, Carlton are averaging just 77 points per game this season.
Carlton Blues Team News
Jacob Weitering will miss with concussion, leaving the Blues without their key defender. He joins Harry Dean on the sidelines. Flynn Young made his cane for a senior debut in the VFL last weekend with three goals.
Verdict
Adelaide to cover the line with Keays and Rankine to enjoy scoreboard impact
Adelaide Crows -32.5
Handicap -32.5
@9/10 - 1 Unit
£30 Free Bet
Use promo code NEWBONUS
Claim £30 free bet & 20 Free Spins. Use the promo code NEWBONUS. New Hollywoodbets account holders. 18 years or older. United Kingdom residents only. T&Cs apply.
Izak Rankine
To Score 2+ goals
@17/20 - 1 Unit
Bet £10 Get £30
with bonus code NEWBONUS
Available to new customers only. Make a qualifying deposit of £5 or more and claim the offer within 30 days of registering your account to qualify for 300% of that amount in Bet Credits, up to a maximum of £30 in Bet Credits. Once released, your Bet Credits will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Registration required. Time limits and T&Cs apply. The bonus code NEWBONUS can be used during registration but does not change the offer amount in any way. #ad
Ben Keays
To Score 2+ goals
@19/10 - 1 Unit
Bet £20 Get £10
Use promo code NEWBONUS
18+ New customers only. Bet £20 (or more) EVS (2.0) or greater Get 2 x £5 Free Bets. 1 x £5 Free Bet paid automatically & following £5 Free Bet after 24hrs. Min Free Bet odds 4/1 (5.0) on accumulators Trebles & upwards. Expires after 24hrs. Full T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org
Top Betting Sites
Betting offers
Upcoming Events
28 March 2026
- LEC 2026 Spring -
- Esports
04 April 2026
23 May 2026
- LPL 2026 Split 2 Playoffs -
- Esports
- LEC 2026 Spring Playoffs -
- Esports
- LCS 2026 Spring Playoffs -
- Esports
Load More
Adelaide Crows v Carlton Blues
Today's Acca Tips
-
Soccer tips
-
Tennis tips
