Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues Tips - Blues all set to make it four on the trot
Carlton Blues enter the King's Birthday Eve match at the MCG riding a three-game winning streak, having found renewed form after their coaching change. With Patrick Cripps and Will Hayward delivering standout performances, the Blues appear poised to make it four in a row against the Essendon Bombers. Essendon, dogged by injuries and inconsistency, are anchored to the bottom of the ladder and continue to struggle both on and off the field. The Blues’ strength at stoppages, improved transition, and healthy squad gives them the edge. Prediction: Carlton to cover the 24.5-point line.
- Carlton have won 3 straight under coach Josh Fraser.
- Essendon remain at the bottom with just one win and major injuries.
- Cripps and Hayward are in great form, tipping Carlton to cover -24.5 pts.
Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues Preview
- Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues Preview
- Head to Head
- Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
- Essendon Bombers Team News
- Carlton Blues Form Analysis
- Carlton Blues Team News
Carlton will take their winning streak to four and with a win over the battling Bombers in the King's Birthday Eve match at the MCG on Sunday evening.
The Blues have rebounded in spectacular fashion following their sacking of Michael Voss and come in full of confidence after claiming a big scalp last weekend in the form of Geelong by four points, thanks to some last-minute heroics from Patrick Cripps.
On the same weekend, Essendon's season went from bad to worse with a 30-point loss to West Coast, leaving them entrenched in bottom spot on the ladder with just one win to their name.
The contrast between the two sides could hardly be greater. Carlton are playing with confidence, belief and clarity, while Essendon are battling injuries, inconsistency and the challenge of rebuilding confidence after a difficult month on and off the field.
The Blues have rediscovered their identity over the past three weeks. Their contest work remains a strength, but they are now moving the ball with greater control and purpose while maintaining strong defensive shape behind the ball. Just as importantly, they have shown an ability to handle momentum swings and win critical moments in games, something that had deserted them earlier in the season.
Patrick Cripps has been at the centre of the resurgence. The Carlton skipper is back to his dominant best and continues to impact games both around the contest and forward of the ball. He has recorded 30+ disposals in three of his past four matches and had 29 in the other, while his match-winning goal against Geelong was another reminder of his ability to stand up when the game is on the line.
The Blues are also getting strong contributions from a deeper group of players. Sam Walsh, George Hewett and Jagga Smith have formed an excellent midfield unit around Cripps, while Will Hayward is beginning to hit his straps after a slow start to life at Carlton. Hayward kicked three goals against Geelong and has seven goals in his past three matches against Essendon, making him one of the standout player props for this contest.
Essendon continue to compete hard around stoppages, but turnovers and defensive lapses remain major concerns heading into the Round 13 match. They won the clearance battle against West Coast last weekend but repeatedly handed the ball back through poor use, resulting in a significant inside 50 deficit and long periods where they were unable to regain control of the contest.
The Bombers' injury list continues to make life difficult. Archer May's shoulder injury leaves another hole in a forward line already lacking experience, while a number of key senior players remain sidelined. There is some hope with a handful of players nearing a return, but the overall depth of the list continues to be tested.
Carlton's pressure and contest game should ensure Essendon do not enjoy the same midfield dominance they found at times against West Coast. The Blues have become one of the stronger stoppage teams in the competition over the past month and their ability to transition quickly from contest to attack should create plenty of opportunities for their forwards.
Essendon may have patches where they challenge through the middle of the ground, but the Blues have too many positives across every line. They are healthier, more settled and carrying significant momentum, while the Bombers are still searching for consistency and confidence.
Take them to cover the line with Cripps and Walsh leading the way through the midfield and Hayward continuing his strong run of form inside 50.
Carlton should be too strong and look capable of covering the 24.5-point line.
- Carlton are unbeaten under their new coach, Josh Fraser.
- Will Hayward has kicked seven goals in his past three matches against Essendon.
- Patrick Cripps has had 30+ disposals in three of his past four matches and had 29 in the other.
- Essendon have one just once this season and have a lengthy injury list
Head to Head
Carlton have won the past three between the two sides, including the Round 24 encounter last season by 34 points.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
Sam Walsh (Blues) – averages 30 disposals in his past six against the Bombers.
George Hewett (Blues) – 36 disposals in his most recent match against Essendon.
Will Hayward (Blues) – as a Swan, he kicked seven goals in his last three outings against Essendon.
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Essendon have won just one match this season and remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder after their 30-point loss to West Coast last weekend. That performance followed a week of turmoil that saw Brad Scott sacked as coach following the loss to Richmond the week prior.
The Bombers led the clearances against West Coast but turned the ball over too frequently, leading to a 40-55 inside 50 count in the 8.7 (55) to 12.13 (85) scoreline.
Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett both had 25+ disposals, while Archie Roberts again banked another 30 and has hit that mark in eight of his past nine matches, averaging 34 in that stretch.
Nate Caddy booted two goals and has kicked multiples in his past six matches, while Archer Day-Wicks also snagged two.
Essendon Bombers Team News
Archer May will miss after dislocating his shoulder, leaving a big hole in the Bombers forward line. He joins a lengthy injury list, but there is some hope that Jye Caldwell, Jordan Ridley and Sam Durham will return.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
It has been a stunning turnaround by Carlton since the club parted ways with Michael Voss and they have won all three matches under their caretaker coach, Josh Fraser, with those coming against the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Geelong.
They have rediscovered their pressure, contest work and ability to sustain intensity across four quarters. After struggling badly with momentum swings and second-half fadeouts earlier in the season, Carlton are far more connected with their reset built around pressure, territory and transition.
Carlton's leaders have driven the turnaround, led by Patrick Cripps, who has returned to dominant form through the midfield. The two-time Brownlow Medallist has had 30+ disposals in three of his past four and kicked the match-winning goal last weekend. He has combined well with Sam Walsh, George Hewett and Jagga Smith, with Walsh (30 disposals) and Smith (27) also major contributors in the thrilling four-point win over Geelong.
After a slow start, Will Hayward and Ollie Florent are beginning to settle into important roles and it was Hayward that snagged three goals last weekend, while Brodie Kemp kicked two. The Blues now look far more connected structurally and mentally.
Carlton Blues Team News
No concerns on the injury front for Carlton. Jacob Weitering returned from a calf injury, while Adam Saad and Zac Williams are expected to be available after missing that match. Ben Camporeale has some solid VFL form and will be considered.
Verdict
Carlton by 24+ points with Cripps and Hayward to continue solid recent form
Carlton -24.5
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