Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints Tips - St Kilda too strong for battling Bombers
St Kilda Saints are tipped to revive their finals hopes with a Round 17 victory over the struggling Essendon Bombers at Marvel Stadium. Despite sitting in 13th place, the Saints have excelled against lower-ranked teams and are set to capitalize on Essendon’s defensive woes and lack of attacking threat. Key playmakers like Wanganeen-Milera and Garcia should dominate disposals, supporting the Saints' controlled, territory-focused style. Essendon’s inconsistency and low scoring are likely to see St Kilda cover the line, reinforcing the Saints as clear favorites in this critical clash.
- St Kilda are strong favourites and have dominated lower-ranked teams in 2026.
- Essendon average just 58 points per game and continue to struggle defensively.
- Wanganeen-Milera and Garcia are tipped for high disposal counts in a Saints win.
2026 Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints Preview
- 2026 Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints Preview
- Head to Head
- Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
- Essendon Bombers Team News
- St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
- St Kilda Saints Team News
St Kilda will keep their slim finals hopes alive with a grinding win over Essendon when the two sides meet at Marvel Stadium in AFL Round 17.
The Saints sit in 13th spot on the ladder with a 6-9 win-loss record and are six points behind 10th-placed Collingwood.
The Round 17 fixture shapes as an ideal opportunity for St Kilda to get its season back on track. Ross Lyon’s side have consistently handled the competition's lower-ranked sides this year, while Essendon continue to struggle at both ends of the ground and remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder.
St Kilda's will generate plenty of opportunities through territory and repeat inside 50s. Their biggest issue in recent weeks has been converting that dominance into scoreboard pressure, but against an Essendon side that has been leaking uncontested possession and allowing opposition teams to control the ball, the Saints should enjoy another afternoon where their midfield accumulates heavily.
Essendon conceded a massive uncontested possession count last weekend and continue to allow opposition sides to dictate play through ball movement and transition. That suits St Kilda's strengths, with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Bradley Hill and Hugo Garcia all capable of finding plenty of uncontested football before setting the Saints up in attack.
Wanganeen-Milera has become one of the competition's premier ball users, averaging 35 disposals across his past three matches, while Garcia has also flourished through the midfield, averaging over 30 disposals in the same period. Bradley Hill is another who has been heavily involved in recent weeks and shapes as another strong disposal play.
Essendon have shown patches of improvement in effort under Dean Solomon, but they continue to struggle with defensive structure and consistency. Their inability to slow opposition ball movement has resulted in repeated periods where games get away from them, particularly against teams that use the ball well by foot.
The Bombers are averaging just 58 points per game under Solomon and will find it difficult to generate enough scoring opportunities against a disciplined St Kilda defensive unit in the Round 17 fixture.
Expect St Kilda to control possession, dominate field position and gradually wear Essendon down across four quarters. The Saints should be able to cover the line, while their key ball winners loom for another afternoon of big disposal numbers.
- St Kilda have won all three of their matches against bottom four sides this season by an average of 50 points.
- Essendon are averaging just 58 points per game under Dean Solomon.
- Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera is averaging 35 disposals in the past three rounds
- Hugo Garcia is averaging over 30 disposals in the past three rounds
Head to Head
St Kilda were two-point winners the last time the two sides met, with that match played in Round 23 last season. The Saints have won three of the past four between the two sides.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Zach Merrett (Bombers) - 25 or more disposals in four of his past five against the Saints, with 24 in the other.
- Mason Redman (Bombers) - 36 disposals in the most recent meeting.
- Jack Higgins (Saints) - Two or more goals in each of his seven matches against the Bombers for a total of 19.
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Essendon have won just one match this season and remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder. They parted ways with Brad Scott last month and have since suffered losses to West Coast by 30 points, Carlton by 53, Melbourne by 45 and North Melbourne by 14 under interim coach Dean Solomon.
Under Solomon, the Bombers are averaging just 58 points per game. Hussein El Achkar and Sam Durham booted two goals last weekend, with Essendon registering only 40 inside 50s in a match dominated by uncontested possession.
Mason Redman (29 disposals) and Andy McGrath (26) found plenty of the football, while Zach Merrett (22) and Archie Roberts (12) were below their usual output.
Essendon Bombers Team News
Elijah Tsatas responded to his omission with a 35-disposal performance in the VFL and will be considered for selection, while Jade Gresham and Nik Cox combined for five goals at the lower level. Liam McMahon and Peter Wright are edging closer to returns from injury but may need another week.
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
St Kilda head into Round 17 with a 6-9 record and have lost four of their past five matches. Their only win during that stretch came against GWS by eight points before a 22-point loss to the Western Bulldogs prior to the Round 16 bye.
The Saints generated plenty of opportunities against the Bulldogs, winning the inside 50 count 61-45 and contested possessions 151-132, but lacked efficiency with their forward entries and were unable to capitalise on their territorial dominance.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera starred with 44 disposals and has now produced three consecutive games of 30 or more disposals while also hitting the scoreboard. Bradley Hill (36 disposals), Hugo Garcia (35) and Marcus Windhager (34) all enjoyed prolific afternoons, highlighting the Saints' ability to accumulate possession through the midfield and half-back.
Against an Essendon side that allowed North Melbourne to dominate uncontested possession and transition last week, another big day for the Saints' ball winners looks likely.
St Kilda Saints Team News
Jack Higgins made a successful return from injury against the Western Bulldogs, while Hunter Clark is edging closer to a return. Mattaes Phillipou is a strong chance to come back into the side after collecting 40 disposals and 11 clearances in the VFL.
Verdict
St Kilda to cover with Wanganeen-Milera and Garcia to post big numbers
St Kilda -28.5
Line
@7/8 - 1 Unit
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