Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Tips - Lions value in the head to head
The 2026 AFL Round 17 showdown between Geelong Cats and Brisbane Lions promises a finals-like atmosphere with both teams tied at 9-6. While Geelong have home-ground advantage, Brisbane are in top form, having won three consecutive matches and rediscovered their defensive strength. Key Lions players Ashcroft and Wilmot are expected to be pivotal, especially in tough, wet conditions. The Lions present value in the head-to-head market and are tipped for an away win, as Geelong struggles to finish close matches. Key returnees could boost the Cats, but the Lions’ form and defensive edge give them the nod.
- Both teams are 9-6; Geelong hosts, but Brisbane’s recent form is stronger.
- Brisbane’s Ashcroft and Wilmot have been standouts and suit expected tough conditions.
- Lions seen as value for an away win in a physical, finals-like match.
2026 Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Preview
- 2026 Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions Preview
- Head to Head
- Geelong Cats Form Analysis
- Geelong Cats Team News
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
- Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane will push Geelong when the 2025 Grand Finalists renew hostilities at GMHBA Stadium in the opening match of AFL Round 17.
The Cats took out the Lions as recently as Round 10 but the premiers from the past two years look to have awoken from a mid-season slumber and should be primed in a match that counts for plenty as we head to the business end of 2026.
Both sides come in with a 9-6 win-loss record, with the Cats sitting in 4th spot on the ladder, just ahead of their conquerors from last season.
They head in as favourites on the back of their home-ground advantage, but the Lions did take out the most recent match between the two sides at GMHBA Stadium.
There is very little separating these sides on current form and Brisbane appeal as the value in the head-to-head market. The Lions have rediscovered the defensive intensity that underpinned their premiership campaigns and have won three matches in a row, while Geelong have dropped three of their past four, albeit all by single-figure margins.
Wet and windy conditions are expected at GMHBA Stadium for the Round 17 clash, which should make this a tough, physical contest where territory and pressure become even more important than clean ball movement. That style of game suits Brisbane, whose contested work and defensive structure have improved significantly over the past month.
The Lions have generated strong contributions right across the ground during their winning streak and their half-backs could play a crucial role in difficult conditions. Darcy Wilmot continues to provide outstanding run and carry, registering 25+ disposals in five of his past six matches. His ability to launch attacks from defence makes him an attractive value option in the player markets.
Will Ashcroft is another player in outstanding form. The young midfielder has collected 30+ disposals in each of his past two matches and continues to grow in influence around stoppages and in transition. Against a Geelong midfield that loves to control possession, Ashcroft's work rate and ability to win the ball in all areas of the ground should again see him feature prominently.
Geelong will regain important personnel and are always difficult to beat at home, but Brisbane appear to have rediscovered the formula that has made them one of the competition's benchmark sides. In what should be a finals-like contest, the Lions represent value to claim an important away victory.
- Brisbane claimed a 41-point victory over Geelong the last time the two sides met at GMHBA Stadium.
- Brisbane have won three matches in a row.
- Will Ashcroft has had 30+ disposals in each of his past two matches
- Darcy Wilmot has had 25+ disposals in five of his past six matches
Head to Head
Geelong were 41-point winners against the Lions at the GABBA in Round 10 this season and have won two of the past three between the two sides, but missed out when it counted the most, going down to Brisbane by 38 points in last season's Grand Final. The Lions were 41-point winners the last time the two sides played at GMHBA Stadium.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from;
- Will Ashcroft (Lions)- 25+ disposals in four of his past five against Geelong with 24 in the other, has hit 30 in three of those and claimed the Norm Smith Medal in last year’s Grand Final
- Bailey Smith (Cats)- 34 disposals in the most recent head to head
- Charlie Cameron (Lions)- seven goals in his past two matches against Geelong
- Shaun Mannagh (Cats)- five goals in the Round 10 match this season
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Geelong come in with a 9-6 win-loss record and come off the bye in Round 16. They went down to Fremantle by nine points prior to the break and have dropped three of their past four, with those losses all by under 10 points.
The Cats continue to possess plenty of firepower inside 50. Jeremy Cameron kicked two goals against the Suns and has booted three or more in seven of his past 10 matches. Shannon Neale, Ollie Henry and Oliver Wiltshire have also been prominent contributors in recent weeks.
Through the midfield, Max Holmes remains one of Geelong's most influential players. He gathered 27 disposals against Gold Coast and has reached 25+ in every match this season, going 30+ in two of his past three. Bailey Smith has registered 30+ disposals in 11 of his past 13 appearances.
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong are likely to regain some important players, including Bailey Smith, who missed the Fremantle match with illness, while Gryan Miers is expected to return after being rested. Jack Bowes, Brad Close and Rhys Stanley are all pressing for selection after being listed as tests. Tom Stewart remains the key watch, with the star defender continuing to progress through concussion protocols. Tyson Stengle is building fitness through an individualised program after a successful VFL return.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
The Lions look to have awoken from a mid-season slumber that saw them lose three straight matches by claiming three in a row, with those wins coming against Gold Coast, Richmond and the Sydney Swans.
They handed the Swans a lesson last weekend at the GABBA, winning by 43 points and getting the game on their terms through uncontested possession and stoppage dominance.
Cam Rayner and Logan Morris both booted three goals. Morris has kicked 13 in his past three outings, while Will Ashcroft picked up 30 disposals, following on from his 38 against Richmond.
Brisbane enter the Round 17 clash with a 9-6 win-loss record and sit in 5th position. They have a 5-3 win-loss record when playing away from the GABBA in 2026.
Brisbane Lions Team News
There were no injuries for the Lions to come out of the win over Sydney. Keidean Coleman is nearing a return from a hamstring injury, while Dayne Zorko is expected to need another week before he returns from a calf strain.
Verdict
Lions value in the head to head with Ashcroft and Wilmot to accumulate plenty of footy
Brisbane Lions
Win
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Darcy Wilmot 25+
Player Disposals
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Will Ashcroft
To Have 27+ disposals
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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