Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tips - Cats push for top four with big win
Geelong Cats are strong favorites to defeat Richmond in the final round at GMHBA Stadium, keeping their top-four hopes alive. The Cats are riding a five-game winning streak and have an impressive record at home, while Richmond struggles with form and scoring. Geelong’s dynamic forward line, notably Shannon Neale and Oliver Henry, is expected to shine, given Richmond’s defensive concerns. With recent history and statistical trends heavily favoring Geelong, a comfortable win for the Cats is the likely outcome.
- Geelong are on a five-match winning streak; Richmond are struggling for form and goals.
- The Cats haven’t lost to Richmond at GMHBA since 2006, and average big winning margins.
- Key forwards Neale and Henry are in strong form, each with 12 goals in their last four matches.
Geelong Cats vs Richmond Preview
- Geelong Cats vs Richmond Preview
- Head to Head
- Geelong Cats Form Analysis
- Geelong Cats Team News
- Richmond Form Analysis
- Richmond Team News
Geelong will put Richmond to the sword at GMHBA Stadium and keep their top-four hopes alive in the final round of the home and away season.
The Cats will finish in the top four if they win and two of Brisbane, Hawthorn or Melbourne lose, while defeat could potentially see them slide as low as seventh. Richmond have no finals hopes to play for and could finish on the bottom of the ladder if they lose and Essendon defeat Port Adelaide.
Everything points towards a comfortable Geelong victory at their home fortress. The Cats have won five consecutive matches, 12 of their past 13 at GMHBA Stadium and have not lost to Richmond at the venue since 2006. Their average winning margin across their past nine matches against sides outside the top eight is 55 points, making the line an attractive option against a Richmond side struggling badly to generate enough scoreboard pressure.
The contrast in attack is significant. Richmond are averaging just 57 points per game across their past five matches, while Geelong are averaging 111 in the same period. The Tigers were held to just 45 points by St Kilda last weekend and were comprehensively beaten around contested possession, inside 50s and territory. Geelong should be able to generate repeat entries and put Richmond's defence under sustained pressure.
That makes Shannon Neale and Oliver Henry particularly appealing in the goalscorer markets for the Round 24 fixture. Both have kicked 12 goals across their past four matches and are part of a Geelong forward line with plenty of different avenues to goal. The Cats had nine individual goalkickers against North Melbourne last weekend and should create enough opportunities for both Neale and Henry to push towards three goals.
- Geelong have not lost to Richmond at GMHBA Stadium since 2006.
- Richmond are averaging just 57 points per game in their past five matches, Geelong are averaging 111 in that period.
- Shannon Neale and Oliver Henry have each kicked 12 goals in their past four matches.
- The Cats defeated Essendon by 67 points in their most recent match at the venue.
Head to Head
Geelong have won the past three between the two sides and six of the past seven. The Cats have won the past seven against Richmond at GMHBA Stadium, a sequence that stretches back to 2006.
Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:
- Tim Taranto (Tigers)- 25+ disposals in his past three matches against the Cats.
- Bailey Smith (Cats)- 34 disposals in his last outing against Richmond.
- Shannon Neale (Cats)- five goals in his past two matches against the Tigers.
- Tom Lynch (Tigers)- three goals in each of his past two matches against Geelong.
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Geelong enter Round 24 on a five-match winning streak after overcoming North Melbourne by 15 points last weekend. The Cats found themselves 39 points behind during a disastrous opening term but responded with nine goals in the second quarter and eventually prevailed 125-110. Their ability to regain control after being dominated at stoppage early was another strong sign heading towards September.
Bailey Smith continued his excellent form with 34 disposals and has now recorded 28+ in six consecutive matches at an average of 32. Geelong also had an enormous spread of attacking contributors against the Kangaroos, with Jay Polkinghorne, Shaun Mannagh and Mark Blicavs kicking three goals each, while Shannon Neale added two.
The Cats have won 12 of their past 13 matches at GMHBA Stadium and their average winning margin across their past nine matches against opposition outside the top eight is 55 points. They also defeated Essendon by 67 points in their most recent match at the venue, which bodes well against another bottom-two opponent.
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong have two injury concerns coming out of the win over North Melbourne. James Worpel finished the match with a hamstring issue, while Oli Wiltshire suffered what was initially considered a minor foot injury. Both will need to prove their fitness ahead of Round 24. Rhys Stanley and George Stevens both had big games at VFL level, while Jeremy Cameron is edging closer towards a return from his collarbone injury.
Richmond Form Analysis
Richmond were disappointing in their 49-point loss to St Kilda last weekend after producing two much more competitive performances beforehand. The Tigers had pushed Adelaide to within nine points the previous week and defeated West Coast by 11 points three rounds ago, but took a significant step backwards against the Saints.
Scoring has become a major issue, with Richmond averaging just 57 points per game across their past five matches. Mykelti Lefau was their only multiple goalkicker against St Kilda with two, while Tim Taranto collected 21 disposals and has now recorded 20+ in eight consecutive matches, including 25+ in six of those.
The Tigers were outworked against St Kilda in areas that had previously been strengths, including contested possession, inside 50s and time in the forward half. Their young group also appeared to be feeling the effects of a long season, which is a concern heading into one of the toughest road trips in the competition.
Richmond Team News
Richmond reported no injuries from the defeat to St Kilda. Nathan Broad and Dion Prestia have already played their final matches for the club, however, after choosing to finish their careers in front of the Richmond supporters at the MCG last weekend despite one home and away match remaining. Jasper Alger, Kane McAuliffe and Tyler Sonsie were among the better contributors in the Tigers VFL match last weekend and will be considered for selection.
Verdict
Geelong win big with Neale and Henry to cash in up forward.
Geelong -60.5
Line
@7/8 - 1 Unit
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Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.
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