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Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs Tips - Melbourne to jump into the Top 4 but will they remain there?

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Tue 18 Aug 2026 01:32

Adam Cusworth 18 Aug 2026

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Melbourne have won 10 of 11 MCG games and need a win for top-four hopes.
The Bulldogs have won the last 3 meetings but struggled for scoring lately.
Expect high points; Petty and Richards are key players for player props.

Expired

The Demons and the Dogs go at it in AFL Round 24 (Getty Images)

Melbourne will hold their nerve and chalk up another MCG win when they take on the Bulldogs in AFL Round 24.

The Demons must win to give themselves a chance of finishing in the top four and then rely on either Brisbane or Hawthorn to lose. The Bulldogs will finish in the wildcard zone regardless, but victory would guarantee them a final in Melbourne, while defeat could potentially send them interstate.

The MCG has become a fortress for Melbourne this season, with the Demons winning 10 of their 11 matches at the venue. They are also coming into the final round in excellent attacking form, having won six of their past seven matches and averaging 112 points during that stretch. With their season potentially hinging on the result, Melbourne can get the job done, although the Bulldogs’ recent dominance of this match-up makes the 1-39 winning margin the preferred play.

There should be opportunities at both ends in the Round 24 clash, with Melbourne’s 11 MCG matches producing an average combined score of 192 points. The Demons piled on 132 points against Port Adelaide last weekend, while the Bulldogs have enough midfield quality to generate their own opportunities. That points towards another high-scoring MCG contest.

Harrison Petty can again make an impact on the scoreboard after kicking 14 goals across his past five appearances at the MCG. He has also kicked 2+ goals in seven consecutive matches overall and is thriving in Melbourne’s more dynamic forward set-up. At the other end, Ed Richards had 31 disposals against Carlton last weekend and has collected 30+ in each of his past two meetings with the Demons, putting both player props firmly in play.

Melbourne have won 10 of their 11 matches at the MCG in 2026.
The total points in those matches have averaged 192.
Ed Richards had 31 disposals last weekend and has had 30+ in his past two against the Demons.
Harrison Petty has kicked 14 goals in his past five matches at the MCG.

Head to Head

The Western Bulldogs have won the past three between the two sides and were three-point winners in the Round 11 clash this season at Marvel Stadium.

Standout player performances in the recent head to heads have come from:

Marcus Bontempelli (Dogs)- 25+ disposals in his past six matches against Melbourne.
Ed Richards (Dogs)- 30+ disposals in each of his past two against the Demons.
Aaron Naughton (Dogs)- nine goals in his past three matches against the Dees.
Jake Bowey (Dees)- 25+ disposals in two of his past three matches against the Dogs.

Melbourne Form Analysis

Melbourne enter the final round in excellent form, winning six of their past seven matches and coming off a dominant 132-56 victory over Port Adelaide. The Demons are averaging 112 points across that seven-match stretch and have been particularly difficult to beat at the MCG, where they have won 10 of 11 this season.

Their forward line continues to produce multiple avenues to goal. Bayley Fritsch and Kade Chandler kicked four each against Port Adelaide, Matthew Jefferson added three, while Harrison Petty and Jacob van Rooyen kicked two apiece. Petty has kicked 2+ goals in seven consecutive matches and 14 across his past five appearances at the MCG.

The Western Bulldogs come off an 82-82 draw against Carlton after losing their previous two matches. Ed Richards stepped up in the absence of Marcus Bontempelli with 31 disposals and two goals, while Tom Liberatore collected 33 disposals. The Bulldogs have struggled for scoreboard impact in the second half of the season, averaging just 73 points per game across the past two months.

Melbourne Team News

Melbourne reported no injuries from their win over Port Adelaide, but Jacob van Rooyen faces a three-match ban following his high contact on Aliir Aliir, making his availability the major selection issue ahead of Round 24. Jack Viney made a successful return from injury via the VFL and Jake Melksham put his hand up for selection with three goals at the lower level.

Western Bulldogs Form Analysis

The Western Bulldogs enter Round 24 after a thrilling draw with Carlton, with the scores locked at 82 apiece. They had lost their previous two matches and have struggled to consistently put scores on the board during the second half of the season, averaging just 73 points per game across the past two months.

Ed Richards starred against Carlton with 31 disposals and two goals, while Tom Liberatore collected 33 disposals. Richards has now recorded 25+ in four consecutive matches and has also produced 30+ in each of his past two meetings with Melbourne, making him one of the Bulldogs’ most reliable ball-winners heading into the finals.

The Bulldogs have played at the MCG just once this season, recording a six-point victory against Hawthorn. They also have an excellent recent record against Melbourne, winning the past three meetings, including their three-point victory at Marvel Stadium earlier this season.

Western Bulldogs Team News

Marcus Bontempelli missed the draw against Carlton, with Ed Richards assuming greater responsibility through the midfield. Interesting to see if Luke Beveridge opts to rest his star again with the Bulldogs locked into a wildcard match the following week. Jedd Busslinger was dominant in the VFL and may earn a recall but Tim English will not be in action with the ruckman unlikely to make it for the wildcard round.

Verdict

Melbourne Demons v Western Bulldogs

Melbourne too strong with the total points to go over. Petty value for 3+ goals as the Bulldogs Ed Richards closes off with another big game in the middle.

Over 182.5

O/U

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One of Australia's top tipsters, Adam provides tips for horse racing every day of the week as well as AFL previews. He is one of the top ranked experts on the Great Tip Off each month and has featured on Blackbook, Punters, Racingbase and many more.

Based in Melbourne, Adam is an avid sporting fan that loves a day at the MCG to follow his team, Hawthorn, in the AFL and the Aussies in the cricket, while he doesn't mind a day out at Moonee Valley, Flemington and Caulfield from time to time.