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Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats AFL Betting Tips - Easter Monday showdown to go to the Cats

adam-cusworth
Adam Cusworth
Editor
Last updated: Fri 03 Apr 2026 10:30
In the traditional Easter Monday AFL clash, Geelong is expected to edge out Hawthorn due to their recent dominance in this fixture. With five consecutive victories against Hawthorn and a strong midfield performance in the past, Geelong's form is promising. Hawthorn possesses their own strengths, such as intercept marking and intense gameplay, but they remain vulnerable to drops in pressure. Key players to watch include Geelong's Bailey Smith and Hawthorn's Jack Gunston. The match promises a high score, with expert betting tips suggesting a Geelong win.
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Adam Cusworth 03 Apr 2026
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  • Geelong has won the last five matches against Hawthorn.
  • Hawthorn's strengths lie in high-pressure and intercept marking.
  • Geelong's key players include Bailey Smith and Mabior Chol.
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geelong cats
Geelong Cats to beat Hawthon (Getty Images)

Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats Preview


Geelong and Hawthorn meet in the traditional Easter Monday showdown and it is the Cats who are tipped to edge a blockbuster. The two sides have near identical record so far this year but Geelong appeal give their recent record in this fixture.

  • Geelong have won the past five matches between the two sides, including the Preliminary Final last season
  • Both sides have averaged over 100 points at the MCG in their past five matches at the venue.
  • Bailey Smith had 36 disposals in the Preliminary Final against Hawthorn
  • Mabior Chol has kicked nine goals from his past four matches against the Cats

Head to Head Stats


Geelong have won the past five meetings between the two sides, including a 30-point victory in last season’s Preliminary Final, and have won seven of the past eight clashes since 2020.

That Preliminary Final highlighted a clear midfield gap, with Geelong winning clearances 50-33, centre clearances 20-5 and inside 50s 66-40.

Hawthorn Hawks 2-1 For 2026


Hawthorn sit at 2-1 in 2026, rebounding from a 27-point Opening Round loss to GWS with consecutive MCG wins over Essendon (62 points) and Sydney (17 points). 

Their strengths are built on a high-pressure, intensity-driven game style, with strong intercept marking and forward-half territory control. 

They consistently generate inside 50 opportunities, while Jack Gunston (13 goals in three games), Jai Newcombe (31 disposals last match) and Nick Watson (seven goals this season) provide scoreboard impact and midfield drive.

There is also a reliance on sustained intensity - when pressure drops, they become vulnerable, and their contested possession wins do not always reflect on the scoreboard.

Hawthorn Hawks Team News


Hawthorn are unlikely to make major changes following consecutive wins, with no significant new injury concerns reported from last round. Their current structure has held up well, particularly defensively and through pressure.

Finn Maginness is pushing for selection after strong VFL form and could come into consideration, adding midfield depth and defensive flexibility if selected.

Geelong Cats Go Back-to-Back


Geelong also sit at 2-1 following wins over Fremantle (10 points) and Adelaide (eight points) following their 56-point Opening Round loss to Gold Coast.

Against Adelaide, they recorded 159-127 contested possessions and 67-45 inside 50s, with Bailey Smith (40 disposals) and Max Holmes (27) leading the way, while Jack Martin (three goals) and Ollie Dempsey (two) benefited from strong supply.

Their main vulnerability is tied to game speed and early-season conditioning, with faster tempo increasing turnover risk and injury exposure. 

Geelong Cats Team News


Patrick Dangerfield missed the Crows match and will be assessed during the week. His presence or absence will have a key bearing on this result. 

Geelong have a stack of depth in the ranks that was evident in the 47-point win over Box Hill in the VFL last weekend. 

Jack Bowes (39 disposals) and James Worpel (25 disposals) have pressed strong cases for inclusion through VFL performance. Brad Close was quiet after being dropped, while Tyson Stengle remains one to monitor for updates.

Verdict

Geelong to win, with midfield dominance and forward variety proving decisive in a high-scoring game, with the over. Bailey Smith 30+ disposals and Mabior Chol 2+ goals are other tips.
Best Bet1: Geelong Match Winner @6/4 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Bailey Smith To Have 30+ disposals @2/3 at bet365 - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Mabior Chol To Score 2+ goals @9/11 at Star Sports - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Over 187.5 Total Points @7/8 at Hollywood bets - 1 Unit
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